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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:37 am
by mathjak107
not at all on an annualized basis .... for the amount of time i actually spent in tlt or gld it surpasses just riding it up and down .... they brought in more than 60k last year actually spending little time in those issues and generating profits elsewhere when they are not in tlt or gld ..

just sold bitcoin gbtc at the open which you can see above i bought last night for a 4% gain over night with some of the proceeds . plus there is interest coming in on the days the money is cash .

in fact if things settled down you can kiss today and yesterday good bye most likely if you did not do something to capture those gains before they evaporate in both of those .... that is the problem with them .. they are a flash in the pan then roll back time and time again .

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:46 am
by mathjak107
also , remember those profits went in to my other portfolio as well , so it is growing there too .

it really wold take a sustained up trend to surpass all the gains that were captured before they evaporated plus all the other gains made with the same money ... last year clocked in at 164k in realized gains and 160k in unrealized gains which is 324k in gains .. that does not include interest from any of the bond funds or money markets .


i don't actually try to measure a return because the time the money spends in the investments as well as the amount is all different , plus we are drawing out 6 figures a year to live .

so i go by year over year balance ... after spending down 6 figures to live last year we are up 16% over last years starting balance, so that is really the only benchmark i use .

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:02 am
by dualstow
ok, thanks

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 am
by mathjak107
if we see a correction or greater then i may start to channel the funds back in to my regular 50/50 model ... that way at least i will be buying back what i had a few hundred k less as a cushion .

otherwise the 25% equity income model i use from fidelity insight is fine as my core coupled with the in and out of the pp and my other trades . .

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:27 am
by Cortopassi
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:37 am
in fact if things settled down you can kiss today and yesterday good bye most likely if you did not do something to capture those gains before they evaporate in both of those .... that is the problem with them .. they are a flash in the pan then roll back time and time again .
Tell us how you really feel. ;)

Of course you can cherry pick, but for a 20 year return, back to 2000, gold blows stocks away.

I only put this up here because I envy your ability to trade in and out of these!

Image

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-v ... omparison/

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:33 am
by mathjak107
if you cherry pick the lost decade for stocks all you needed was bonds to do better and nothing else.

in fact 30/70 with no gold beat a 60/40 the last 20 years with 2 back to back recessions and a 40 year bull market in bonds in the mix .

.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:46 am
by mathjak107
looking at my total investment period which started in 1987 , the fidelity insight growth model which i used from day one right to retirement took a hypothetical 100k and ended december with 3.3 million ... the insight fidelity sector model started a year later in 1988 and closed 2019 at 4.915 million .

that includes those 20 crappy years

so the only time frame that counts is the ones that applies to us with whatever our models are . ... these charts mean little since we all buy at different times , rebalance at different times , add money differently , sell at different times as well as have different tax structures and most important DIFFERENT PORTFOLIOS which have different results when working as a team vs in isolation

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:54 pm
by mathjak107
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:09 pm
Got bitcoin ...gbtc 7.95
Phew , I thought I did well this morning with gbtc up almost 5% ..it now shows over 7% today ....damn I wish I had all my gold money in that baby today

Bought ung today natural gas ......

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:44 am
by mathjak107
interesting that bitcoin was going for the equal of 24k in dollars in iran yesterday ...

basically it was iran yesterday that triggered the run up in bitcoin and gbtc . gbtc acully closed up over 7% .. but at least i captured 5% of it overnight . it was a bigger benefactor yesterday than gold and tlt together x 2 were

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:22 pm
by HappyMan
Is it time to buy oil?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:27 am
by mathjak107
not yet i think ... i am waiting for the air to come out of all this stuff .. TLT is back to negative since i sold . gold has been evaporating its flash in the pan for those who did not lock in any of its recent spike .


that is the problem with gold and oil .. it seems to be like a tease ... if you blink and do nothing the gains tend to evaporate ... looks like futures are down 13 bucks for gold this morning on top of down 18 yesterday .

in the mean time i have been trading ung and gbtc. gbtc was hot for a bit too

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:38 am
by dualstow
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:27 am
that is the problem with gold and oil .. it seems to be like a tease ... if you blink and do nothing the gains tend to evaporate ...
Depends on what you want it for. It would be nice if gold had a generally upward trend like the S&P500. Even though it does not, I feel comfortable holding coins and not messing with them, excepting rebalancing bands.

If you’re young like Smithers, you want assets to be cheap.

if you’re older like Mathjak (and my Dad), it’s easier to get bored and more tempting to do quick trades.
I’m in my late 40s so I’m not quite sure what I want, but I should probably trade very infrequently.

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 am
by mathjak107
HappyMan wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:22 pm
Is it time to buy oil?
oil still tumbling again today

edit-------------- limit order hit at 12.33

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:58 pm
by HappyMan
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:47 am

edit-------------- limit order hit at 12.33
Nice! What is your secret?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:48 am
by mathjak107
my butt ....

have a limit order in for gld too ... it is coming back to earth daily now ...

that flash was what we got for waiting 7 years for a high and it lasted not even a day . oil too fell something like 10% in days .

which is why it is always timing the markets it seems with commodities and gold , not time in the markets like equities

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm
by mathjak107
added to uso (oil ) and gld today

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:53 am
by mathjak107
looks like the gold rally is fading off in to the sunset … I will add the last of the money likely today in to gld .

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:28 am
by dualstow
silver’s down 1%. Do you ever trade that?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:43 am
by mathjak107
i haven't traded silver since 1987 when i got burned . but i have thought about slv below 17 dollars a share . just never done it ...there is always something else like gbtc or uso that seems to distract me away . right now i am in uso and gld

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:25 am
by mathjak107
so just an update …..

bought back 170k in gld , 21k in uso (oil) 10k in bitcoin GBTC ….. all the rest is in the 25% equity fidelity insight income model …. right now I am holding off on tlt unless it moves down quite a bit …

I much prefer to use the short term bond and intermediate term bond funds in the fidelity model with some gold and oil coverage ….

i think we can see rates climb a bit so i don't want so much interest rate risk as gold and long term treasuries really are a bet on low rates with that kind of heft .

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:32 am
by HappyMan
When did you sell oil?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:35 am
by mathjak107
i just bought uso ........ i have not owned it in a while

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:53 am
by HappyMan
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm
added to uso (oil ) and gld today
Did you add to your limit order at 12.33 from 1/9 ?

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:57 am
by mathjak107
Yes added to it yesterday

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:36 pm
by mathjak107
Bitcoin. Gbtc sold off today. Nice run up