mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:51 pm

But if gld and Tlt drops it is the same permanent portfolio everyone here likely owns .... no one ever went broke taking a profit ...

I just find things like gold and treasuries are not about time in the market like equities, they are more timing the market to me ..just look at the difference between this week and last week ....

....
So it is not speculating at all .....if it spikes I get my profit ,,,if it doesn’t it is the same permanent portfolio...

The only risk is that gold and Tlt will fall while the equities go up and the equities will get sand bagged by gld and Tlt ...but that is the same risk the pp always runs .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:42 pm

Really, you believe that it is not speculating?

Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?

And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:48 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:48 am
Nevertheless, I'm glad this thread finally got started so I know where to go when I want to read this stuff instead of just finding it randomly in almost any other thread.
I appreciate your saying that. I felt like a jerk for requesting it, but now I'm happy it's all here in one spot if I want to peek, and not floating around like all those 1/2 cents in Superman III.
Check out ‘Seattle’s Wage Mandate Kills Restaurants’ at WSJ | Opinion
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by stuper1 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:41 pm

You weren't a jerk. You were a genius. I'm glad you thought of it.
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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:53 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Really, you believe that it is not speculating?

Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?

And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
Well I had about 28 trades in gld over the year and each one captured at least 1% so you do the math ....so it can be far more profitable taking small hit and runs because many of those trades were in the same day ........ even if the trend is up it has 1 to 2% moves all the time ...same with Tlt ... I did not trade it as much ... but realize that money is in all those other things when not in gld or Tlt adding to the profits as the same money gets recycled .

Markets spend about 80% of the time somewhere between there last low and last high so there is plenty of small volatility trading that can be just up an down going no where . The stock never has to go any higher and you can just catch the 1 or 2% move over and over and over ...I can think of very few things that did not experience a 1 or 2% set back in very very short time trading that did not at least bounce back in a couple of days enough to buy and sell out at a profit even if small when wrong ....

as you saw above , I had very few losing trades where I did not get a chance to get out with at least a small profit if things did not go my way.. there is usually a bounce even if after that bounce it goes down more .

But remember this is not my main investing portfolio, this is my variable portfolio which is really my fun trading ..it just happens to trade gld and Tlt a lot so it is easy to make a pp out of it worst comes to worse .

I have big positions in both Tlt and Gld as I completed the buys Friday , over 275k in each since we sold the last of our real estate in sept and were holding cash ,so if it does not go my way ,who cares ... worst case is I hold it and I am no different than anyone else here. There is no downside other than by tying up the money in gld and Tlt I won’t get the quick returns I plan on if I have to sit and wait and then I am a full fledged pp user .

But I think the current situation is going to leave both Tlt and Gld very volatile and a good vehicle for what I do.

I also have the luxury of taking my conservative fidelity insight income portfolio which is 25% equities and selling off the bond portion and averaging down in to the permanent portfolio if gold and Tlt fall a lot ....I can effectively double my position in the pp doubling down and averaging out much lower .

One thing I like is flexibility in my investing , it opens the door for so many ways to do things .....

By structuring our portfolios differently at different stages of our lives it allowed us to have maximum growth early on and now in retirement we have quite a few different options running different portfolios that serve different purposes
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:04 am

i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:00 am

Wouldn't work for me, bottom line. Glad it works for you.

My results, this year, if I had 275k in each of GLD and TLT in each at the beginning of the year I would be sitting on a paper gain of $65k. With no work.

Obviously, they don't go up every year, and your strategy has a better chance of catching ups and downs. You seem to have good control at not getting burned.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm

except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by modeljc » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm
except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
Ever think about using TMF and UGLD? Can you restate when you buy and when you sell. Is it wait for 5% drop and then buy. Sell when you have a 1% plus trade.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:04 am
i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
Do you think it's your device or the website?
Check out ‘Seattle’s Wage Mandate Kills Restaurants’ at WSJ | Opinion
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:11 pm

Can you put some details down as to what you are doing?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:43 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:11 pm
Can you put some details down as to what you are doing?
Kbg, I'm not sure whether you're asking about stock trading or about attempting to post.

Mathjak and I have been in touch about his posting issues and they should now be resolved.
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