mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:10 am

:-* Another day of carnage for the pp .

This is getting to be the trend and not just a rough spot .....this has been going on since august.

Funny how everyone here is always talking about stocks collapsing and why they want the safety of the pp , but it isn’t stocks doing the damage .

The huge risky portfolio seems to be the Pp because it has huge interests rate and inflation risk other portfolios are not having sinc gold does poorly in normal inflation ranges and bond convexity is working against Tlt.

It is almost turning out to be betting the ranch on lower rates and lower inflation in my opinion ..

Perhaps the pp isn’t so permanent .... it met its Waterloo if this does not subside before even if we ave a spike in Tlt or Gld upward t won’t be enough to make back what is lost.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:24 am

....Until the next covid strain starts to fill headlines or some other such unforeseeable event grabs the market by the balls. The price action hasn't been great the last few months...but still down only a little over 2%. We aren't talking catastrophe here...even double that wouldnt be the end of the world.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:31 am

I'm kind of wondering if a Mathjak capitulation will be a strong bottom signal. Will be interesting to observe.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:37 am

We would have hit bottom weeks ago when I started to question my decision.

I mean this portfolio has no bottom it seems.

More than half of last years gains lost so far and not because of equities, that is the worst part ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:48 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:37 am
We would have hit bottom weeks ago when I started to question my decision.

I mean this portfolio has no bottom it seems.

More than half of last years gains lost so far and not because of equities, that is the worst part ....
Capitulation meaning you abandon portfolio
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:05 am

I will stick it out at this point ....I am in to deep ....

I miscalculated how risky the pp really is today ..interest rate risk makes it as risky as you can get and one of the most exposed portfolios there is to that risk I can think of. Notice I said risk and not just volatility ,they are not the same.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:25 am

False security is what the PP offers.
You think you’re protected but you’re not.
Sucks really as it would be great if the portfolio actually worked.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:26 am

I t can’t work unless the underlying economic situation falls in to line ...in the past it has but this ain’t your fathers markets anymore and neither are the risks
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:26 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:05 am
I will stick it out at this point ....I am in to deep ....
This is an interesting psychological phenomenon considering your daily recommitment philosophy. If the approach is suboptimal from a risk standpoint going forward, why continue to commit assets to it at start of bell? Why not optimize allocation so that tomorrow at least looks brighter than yesterday?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:28 am

Because I am counting on the fact both gold and tlt are in a bear market from their highs and they are do for a pop.

But I could be wrong ..

I mean I could sell it off and hopefully ride back the other model just the same ...but at this point I am hoping for a rebound because of the sell off
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:32 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:25 am
False security is what the PP offers.
You think you’re protected but you’re not.
Sucks really as it would be great if the portfolio actually worked.
Is there another budd that I'm not aware of?
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:38 am
I would not be retired and living peacefully off of the PP if I had not encountered this forum 10+ years ago.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:33 am

My version of the PP, NOT agnostic 4x25 which is ludicrous...I hold zero LTT’s and only 15% in Gold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:28 am
Because I am counting on the fact both gold and tlt are in a bear market from their highs and they are do for a pop.

But I could be wrong ..

I mean I could sell it off and hopefully ride back the other model just the same ...but at this point I am hoping for a rebound because of the sell off
So, in other words, based on the information available to you at this moment, the PP is the optimal strategy today. If you were all cash at the moment then this is the allocation you would choose? If not, then why not pick a more optimal allocation as you will certainly be rewarded for that tomorrow?

I think the hurdle most people struggle with using this portfolio is they somehow still feel like they can predict the future. On top of that, they don't recognize that the choices that led to their gains are just luck in the same way as the choices that led to their losses. The market could have very well moved the other way and you might have been up a significant amount at this point congratulating yourself for your wise decision. Either way, it's all outside of our control so best just to let go in my opinion.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:07 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:33 am
My version of the PP, NOT agnostic 4x25 which is ludicrous...I hold zero LTT’s and only 15% in Gold.
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:20 pm
I am approximately 50/50 PP and conventional 60/40 (equities and bonds). I am uncomfortable investing 100% in the PP. What happens if it fails to perform as it has historically? If the BH portfolio under-performs then many other investors will be in the same position. If the PP under-performs then you look like an idiot (everyone "knows" that stocks and gold are overpriced and LTT yields have no where to go but up.)
You realize it confusing when you refer to it as "the PP" on a forum dedicated to that portfolio, right?

Its also confusing when you refer to your portfolio as "permanent" but constantly shift allocations...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:10 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:07 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:33 am
My version of the PP, NOT agnostic 4x25 which is ludicrous...I hold zero LTT’s and only 15% in Gold.
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:20 pm
I am approximately 50/50 PP and conventional 60/40 (equities and bonds). I am uncomfortable investing 100% in the PP. What happens if it fails to perform as it has historically? If the BH portfolio under-performs then many other investors will be in the same position. If the PP under-performs then you look like an idiot (everyone "knows" that stocks and gold are overpriced and LTT yields have no where to go but up.)
You realize it confusing when you refer to it as "the PP" on a forum dedicated to that portfolio, right?

Its also confusing when you refer to your portfolio as "permanent" but constantly shift allocations...
It used to be 4x25 for years but then I woke up.
Having fun yet doodle with PP down day after day.
Don’t fool yourself into thinking this portfolio offers protection.
It doesn’t!
That’s why I change allocations and it’s worked.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:10 am

Im not trying to convince anyone that this portfolio is the way to go...and don't think I'm defending it either. I'm merely pointing out that no one has any damn idea of what the future holds so pick your number and hope for the best. If you want to tilt towards prosperity, go heavy in stocks...great, take that bet. You might get lucky, you might not.
Last edited by doodle on Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:11 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:49 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:28 am
Because I am counting on the fact both gold and tlt are in a bear market from their highs and they are do for a pop.

But I could be wrong ..

I mean I could sell it off and hopefully ride back the other model just the same ...but at this point I am hoping for a rebound because of the sell off
So, in other words, based on the information available to you at this moment, the PP is the optimal strategy today. If you were all cash at the moment then this is the allocation you would choose? If not, then why not pick a more optimal allocation as you will certainly be rewarded for that tomorrow?

I think the hurdle most people struggle with using this portfolio is they somehow still feel like they can predict the future. On top of that, they don't recognize that the choices that led to their gains are just luck in the same way as the choices that led to their losses. The market could have very well moved the other way and you might have been up a significant amount at this point congratulating yourselfq for your wise decision. Either way, it's all outside of our control so best just to let go in my opinion.
Actually no , the optimal would have been what I had in retrospect...if rates keep rising the portfolio is less risky , if rates fall the equities should do well unless we fall into recession which is not in the cards now.

Quite frankly I am in a wait and see mode ...but had I not changed the other model so far was the way to go it seems
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:13 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:11 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:49 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:28 am
Because I am counting on the fact both gold and tlt are in a bear market from their highs and they are do for a pop.

But I could be wrong ..

I mean I could sell it off and hopefully ride back the other model just the same ...but at this point I am hoping for a rebound because of the sell off
So, in other words, based on the information available to you at this moment, the PP is the optimal strategy today. If you were all cash at the moment then this is the allocation you would choose? If not, then why not pick a more optimal allocation as you will certainly be rewarded for that tomorrow?

I think the hurdle most people struggle with using this portfolio is they somehow still feel like they can predict the future. On top of that, they don't recognize that the choices that led to their gains are just luck in the same way as the choices that led to their losses. The market could have very well moved the other way and you might have been up a significant amount at this point congratulating yourselfq for your wise decision. Either way, it's all outside of our control so best just to let go in my opinion.
Actually no , the optimal would have been what I had in retrospect...if rates keep rising the portfolio is less risky , if rates fall the equities should do well unless we fall into recession which is not in the cards now
Ok, great. So does that thesis no longer hold true? If it does, then based on your philosophy you should reallocate to that. If you take a left when you should have taken a right do you just keep going and circumnavigate the globe in order to get to your destination?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:15 am

No one knows what is next of course . But the bottom line is I committed to the pp so I will stay committed , but I do feel in retrospect it was not as good a choice and if I didn’t already commit I would not do the swap to the pp over again ..it is far to vulnerable to rates and gold has fear to much competition as a non stock hedge.

Either portfolio is a gamble but the pp may be more of a gamble on rates while the other more a gamble on stocks.

Gambling on stocks seems a better choice so far than gambling on rates
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:17 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:10 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:07 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:33 am
My version of the PP, NOT agnostic 4x25 which is ludicrous...I hold zero LTT’s and only 15% in Gold.
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2012 2:20 pm
I am approximately 50/50 PP and conventional 60/40 (equities and bonds). I am uncomfortable investing 100% in the PP. What happens if it fails to perform as it has historically? If the BH portfolio under-performs then many other investors will be in the same position. If the PP under-performs then you look like an idiot (everyone "knows" that stocks and gold are overpriced and LTT yields have no where to go but up.)
You realize it confusing when you refer to it as "the PP" on a forum dedicated to that portfolio, right?

Its also confusing when you refer to your portfolio as "permanent" but constantly shift allocations...
It used to be 4x25 for years but then I woke up.
Having fun yet doodle with PP down day after day.
Don’t fool yourself into thinking this portfolio offers protection.
It doesn’t!
That’s why I change allocations and it’s worked.
So your "permanent portfolio" is basically constantly shifting your allocations? You realize why I'm confused, right?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vincent_c » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:25 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:17 am
So your "permanent portfolio" is basically constantly shifting your allocations? You realize why I'm confused, right?
We've all probably been confused by this, but I'm glad these two found each other.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:15 am
No one knows what is next of course . But the bottom line is I committed to the pp so I will stay committed , but I do feel in retrospect it was not as good a choice and if I didn’t already commit I would not do the swap to the pp over again ..it is far to vulnerable to rates and gold has fear to much competition as a non stock hedge.

Either portfolio is a gamble but the pp may be more of a gamble on rates while the other more a gamble on stocks
As someone who has basically stuck things out through thick and thin with this asset allocation for over a decade (and believe me, there were a lot of times full of doubts) one of the best suggestions that has come up frequently on this board is to stop micromanaging it. Don't look at it for a couple of months.

The reason you pick an allocation like this in the first place is so that you don't have to worry about reacting if a dirty bomb explodes in new york city, or israel declares war on saudi arabia, or the stock market implodes. You might not have the winningest strategy, but you have more or less covered your bases and freed up your precious and limited time on earth to invest in other more rewarding pursuits than trying to predict the unpredictable.

My recommendation to myself, and others here is to find a hobby you are interested in and invest your time and efforts there. I guarantee it will be more rewarding and better for your health and happiness. Take a few months off from looking at the markets at all, and come back to it after the summer and see where things stand.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am

It is impossible to do really because all bills are paid and money transfers are done through the same accounts .not looking is not an option today
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:28 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:15 am
No one knows what is next of course . But the bottom line is I committed to the pp so I will stay committed , but I do feel in retrospect it was not as good a choice and if I didn’t already commit I would not do the swap to the pp over again ..it is far to vulnerable to rates and gold has fear to much competition as a non stock hedge.

Either portfolio is a gamble but the pp may be more of a gamble on rates while the other more a gamble on stocks
As someone who has basically stuck things out through thick and thin with this asset allocation for over a decade (and believe me, there were a lot of times full of doubts) one of the best suggestions that has come up frequently on this board is to stop micromanaging it. Don't look at it for a couple of months.

The reason you pick an allocation like this in the first place is so that you don't have to worry about reacting if a dirty bomb explodes in new york city, or israel declares war on saudi arabia, or the stock market implodes. You might not have the winningest strategy, but you have more or less covered your bases and freed up your precious and limited time on earth to invest in other more rewarding pursuits than trying to predict the unpredictable.

My recommendation to myself, and others here is to find a hobby you are interested in and invest your time and efforts there. I guarantee it will be more rewarding and better for your health and happiness. Take a few months off from looking at the markets at all, and come back to it after the summer and see where things stand.
This is excellent advice and I have tried ignoring the PP at times. Problem is I don’t have faith in the portfolio’s ability to navigate these waters unscathed. I sincerely doubt many on this board are holding 25% in LTT’s and 25% in Gold when all accounts, cash, etc are combined. It sounds good on paper but you often end up with disappointment. Believe me I’ve tried.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:40 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am
It is impossible to do really because all bills are paid and money transfers are done through the same accounts .not looking is not an option today
What about setting up monthly cash transfers to a separate account to cover living expenses?

I really wish Rowland or Tex would drop in from time to time with some insights. They have a knack for calming people down.
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am
This is excellent advice and I have tried ignoring the PP at times. Problem is I don’t have faith in the portfolio’s ability to navigate these waters unscathed. I sincerely doubt many on this board are holding 25% in LTT’s and 25% in Gold when all accounts, cash, etc are combined. It sounds good on paper but you often end up with disappointment. Believe me I’ve tried.
Disappointment is a function of ones expectations in life. As Charlie Munger and every other wise philosopher has said, lower your expectations enough and you won't suffer from disappointment. This is especially sage advice when it pertains to situations and events that are outside of our control. I have no idea whether the PP will be the best choice or the worst or somewhere in the middle...but that same uncertainty goes for any allocation at this point. I have resigned myself to the sad reality that I am unfortunately not clairvoyant and therefore best suited to a completely agnostic allocation. To me the only thing worth getting concerned about regarding this allocation is if any of the assets no longer respond to the respective economic conditions they were intended to address. If we get deflation and bonds crash...I will start scratching my head.
Last edited by doodle on Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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