mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

I think we tend to just go by what is ..if this years jeep cost 1000 bucks over last years model ,despite improvements we look at that as inflation....when prices fall like computers we tend to not buy what we had but we buy in the same price range and get a better machine.

So we tend to do constant spending and not downgrade to cheaper even though cheaper was the equal

[vincent_c]

Just for the record I purchased TLT at 134.18
1/4 of what I previously owned.

Did the crude action have any impact on this decision?

[vincent_c]

I think we tend to just go by what is ..if this years jeep cost 1000 bucks over last years model ,despite improvements we look at that as inflation....when prices fall like computers we tend to not buy what we had but we buy in the same price range and get a better machine.

So we tend to do constant spending do to apsara and not downgrade to cheaper even though cheaper was the equal

My problem with thinking in terms of personal inflation/deflation is that the assets that we invest in don't care about a personal situation so one can be experiencing a lot of personal inflation but bonds could be telling you that the market is experiencing deflation. So when it comes to investing, personal inflation/deflation probably doesn't matter too much.

[mathjak107]

I go by my own life , which is all I can do ...we still spend as much as we have over the last 6 years .....if y goes up we buy less of x or we don’t do z....life is very different.

In fact many studies show seniors don’t see much inflation ....after the early go go years of retirement, the slow go years have lots of things no longer bought or done , so that helps defray the costs on what went up ...many studies show how seniors don’t need yearly inflation adjustments....then we hit the no go years and healthcare rises

[buddtholomew]

Just for the record I purchased TLT at 134.18
1/4 of what I previously owned.

Did the crude action have any impact on this decision?

Out at 134.40 as SPY continues to fall and TLT stopped rebounding.

[mathjak107]

Wow so far Tlt and Gld in the green .

Now Tlt only down 73,664 and Gld only down 32,773..9.87% and 4.64% respectively

[buddtholomew]

Triple witching.
Last hour should be fun as long as we’re +ve.

[buddtholomew]

In TLT at 136.50
Hopefully for good!

AA: 35/15/5/45 stocks/gold/LTT’s/cash

[mathjak107]

Good luck ..I am only down 63k in Tlt now ...34k in gold

[vincent_c]

If you're honest to yourself how likely do you think, with a Fed aiming for higher than 2% inflation long term and full employment, that we have seen a peak in break even inflation expectations?

If someone told you that after all that's been done and being talked about that 30 year yields only peaked at 2.5% and then sharply reversed course would you think that is incredible?

There's a good chance that any drop in yields is a good opportunity to get out of treasuries if you are among the trading crowd.

[mathjak107]

I think the markets are over stating inflation...if I didn’t I would have sold out long ago before committing so much money..but what do I know , the markets could be correct and we get hammered

[buddtholomew]

Legging into TLT as I’ve been lucky enough to avoid the recent pull-back. What the FED wants and what we get may be polar opposites.

[mathjak107]

Bought 116 shares arkk at 121.57.


Pp has been averaged down and now stands at

5023 shares TLT 149.02

4267 shares Gld 169.98

3745 Bil , 3271 shy and fdlxx

Equities are equal dollars as far as total equity amount compared to Gld and tlt , in fidelity contra , vti , voo and now arkk

[dualstow]

Bought 116 shares arkk at 121.57.

Aren’t you 3 years late? Well, maybe not. I still believe in tech and Cathie Wood is smart.
But, I want to hear you rag on ARKK every day that it goes down as long as you’re holding it.

[mathjak107]

It just may fall but I have a lot more faith in cathie wood eventually turning the fund around then I do in Tlt drifting wherever rates go.

It is also a small position ....it is under 15k in an almost 700k equity position

[buddtholomew]

Do you see her fund/s as a potential target given how open she is with her stock picks? I don’t see other managers exposing this information in real-time.

[mathjak107]

Do you see her fund/s as a potential target given how open she is with her stock picks? I don’t see other managers exposing this information in real-time.

I think she exposes her hand for the most part after she is in it

[dualstow]

If anything, she may benefit from copycat trades. it’s like a free newsletter.
Her main tailwind is all the new money pouring into her funds. It will be hard for her to match the performance of the past.

[mathjak107]

I look at it as QQQ 0n steroids...

I would only have a relatively smaller amount in it since fidelity contra is a big position and holds much of the same biggies

[buddtholomew]

I see it differently...
Hedge fund competitors can take the other side of the trade and drive these holdings lower.
A newsletter is for retail investors not institutional which drives the volume we see in these markets.

[buddtholomew]

Just for the record, out of TLT at 137.15 yesterday...don’t like the behavior..

[mathjak107]

With 700k in gld and tlt each I am staying for the long haul it looks like , but I am getting my ass kicked ...

Tlt down 64k Gld down 39,500

[buddtholomew]

This pattern may change but I see:
Stocks up, LTT’s down
Stocks down, LTT’s down

Maybe I’ll buy back in when stocks are falling and not before so I can wait for the selling in Gold and LTT’s to end before they catch a bid.

[mathjak107]

The problem is we never know a temporary dip or spike from the real trend ..we assume it is a suckers rally and wait ..then we go okay next dip I am in , only that dip does not come and we miss the meatiest gains early on

[buddtholomew]

I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.