well back in today after todays big sell off of tlt and gld ..i only sold out a day after the fed announcement a week ago . what a big difference ... well waiting for that next tweet to drive tlt and gld back upmathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:09 am i still have my copy of best laid ... i have it decades . i don't use the pp all the time .. i tend to use it as my variable portfolio taking profits in gold and tlt as they do their rise and fall . been washing and repeating for 30 years now ..
my main portfolio is a core of fidelity funds that change dynamically over time as the big picture changes . it has had excellent results in the 30 plus years i have been doing it .
i sold tlt and gld last week in the nice run up ... it has been sliding back down and perhaps if tlt falls enough today i will add it back ... these 1 to 2% moves at a time generate a lot of money for me each year . there is always something that sends those two up or down very quickly . unlike equities which i tend to sit with , tlt and gld tend to be more about timing the market than time in the market so i like to trade them .
but the book is still an all time favorite ... i sold my craigs book back to amazon but i always kept best laid plans and fail safe investing like they are a collectible .
mathjak's daytrading adventures
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mathjak's daytrading adventures
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
mathjak, don't take this as harrassment, and don't run off like pmward, but shouldn't you just make a vp thread called mathjak's daytrading adventures?
Looking at gold's price yo-yoing lately, I'm tempted to do the same, although I'm getting rid of my paper/electronic gold altogether.
I'll read your thread with interest.
But putting these shenanigans in 'Read the Permanent Portfolio Bible?' is like letting your dog pee on someone's front stoop.![Tongue :P](./images/smilies/tongue.gif)
Looking at gold's price yo-yoing lately, I'm tempted to do the same, although I'm getting rid of my paper/electronic gold altogether.
I'll read your thread with interest.
But putting these shenanigans in 'Read the Permanent Portfolio Bible?' is like letting your dog pee on someone's front stoop.
![Tongue :P](./images/smilies/tongue.gif)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
LOL!!
Thanks, man.![Afro O0](./images/smilies/afro.gif)
Thanks, man.
![Afro O0](./images/smilies/afro.gif)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
mj, of course you've never gotten burned in these trades, right? You just wait them out? What's the longest you held a losing trade? Or are you so good at timing you never really have to wait?mathjak107 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 amwell back in today after todays big sell off of tlt and gld ..i only sold out a day after the fed announcement a week ago . what a big difference ... well waiting for that next tweet to drive tlt and gld back upmathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:09 am i still have my copy of best laid ... i have it decades . i don't use the pp all the time .. i tend to use it as my variable portfolio taking profits in gold and tlt as they do their rise and fall . been washing and repeating for 30 years now ..
my main portfolio is a core of fidelity funds that change dynamically over time as the big picture changes . it has had excellent results in the 30 plus years i have been doing it .
i sold tlt and gld last week in the nice run up ... it has been sliding back down and perhaps if tlt falls enough today i will add it back ... these 1 to 2% moves at a time generate a lot of money for me each year . there is always something that sends those two up or down very quickly . unlike equities which i tend to sit with , tlt and gld tend to be more about timing the market than time in the market so i like to trade them .
but the book is still an all time favorite ... i sold my craigs book back to amazon but i always kept best laid plans and fail safe investing like they are a collectible .
I am asking sarcastically, but would like to know. It sounds like you should make a newsletter ...
![Grin ;D](./images/smilies/grin.gif)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
actually no , the gold and tlt trades have always worked out fine ... if it moves against me i hold it . so far there is always an opportunity to sell in a spike ...sometimes it may take a few months .
as far as my other quick trades go iif i am wrong i a'm out immediately . i will take a shot when a stock misses earnings and gets beat up. if it does not bounce back next day or so i am out . so losses are very small. sometimes it will dip and i will wait a day and it comes back to near even and i am out , right or wrong ... but gold and tlt i don't sell at a loss . if yesterdays buy stays down , then i guess i am a pp user for life ha ha ha . but usually there is always an event that will spike it even if for a day .
so far i have around 230k in total gains this year including my newsletter portfolio which does not get traded except for occasional fund swaps ..
so , here is my fidelity closed out position statement .
here , you can see my closed trades . you can see gld by far was my biggest money maker and i have very few losses . i had about 25 trades in gld and tlt .
so as of yesterday i am in gld and tlt ... i use the newsletter sector portfolio ,voo and vti as the equity portion of the pp which i don't trade much . i have so much in voo in gains that to sell it at this point tax wise it would be a killer . so i likely will just pass it to the kids one day when i am gone .
So over 70k in quick gains and less than 800 bucks in losses.. vz owed me a 245 dollar dividend so the loss was less
![Image](https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-wPSGT6X/4/a2537119/X3/i-wPSGT6X-X3.jpg)
as far as my other quick trades go iif i am wrong i a'm out immediately . i will take a shot when a stock misses earnings and gets beat up. if it does not bounce back next day or so i am out . so losses are very small. sometimes it will dip and i will wait a day and it comes back to near even and i am out , right or wrong ... but gold and tlt i don't sell at a loss . if yesterdays buy stays down , then i guess i am a pp user for life ha ha ha . but usually there is always an event that will spike it even if for a day .
so far i have around 230k in total gains this year including my newsletter portfolio which does not get traded except for occasional fund swaps ..
so , here is my fidelity closed out position statement .
here , you can see my closed trades . you can see gld by far was my biggest money maker and i have very few losses . i had about 25 trades in gld and tlt .
so as of yesterday i am in gld and tlt ... i use the newsletter sector portfolio ,voo and vti as the equity portion of the pp which i don't trade much . i have so much in voo in gains that to sell it at this point tax wise it would be a killer . so i likely will just pass it to the kids one day when i am gone .
So over 70k in quick gains and less than 800 bucks in losses.. vz owed me a 245 dollar dividend so the loss was less
![Image](https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-wPSGT6X/4/a2537119/X3/i-wPSGT6X-X3.jpg)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
mj, I am glad you show up every now and then to do this.
Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.
There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.
But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!
So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.
There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.
But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!
So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
XaN I am having trouble replying to my own thread , if you can fix it .
I am buying the rest of my position this morning so hopefully I won’t have to wait to long .. I only go for 2% pops at a time.but I use a few hundred thousand in each position at times averaging down . I don’t mind holding if something does not work out so I treat it not like a speculation but an actual investment position....
Wash and repeat ..that way even a down trend gives me enough time to hit a spike up ...heck for 30 years I have been doing this ... I never realized I really made the pp my variable portfolio until I thought about it the other day ... kind of funny in a way ..but it has been working a long time now
I am buying the rest of my position this morning so hopefully I won’t have to wait to long .. I only go for 2% pops at a time.but I use a few hundred thousand in each position at times averaging down . I don’t mind holding if something does not work out so I treat it not like a speculation but an actual investment position....
Wash and repeat ..that way even a down trend gives me enough time to hit a spike up ...heck for 30 years I have been doing this ... I never realized I really made the pp my variable portfolio until I thought about it the other day ... kind of funny in a way ..but it has been working a long time now
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:59 am, edited 6 times in total.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
If it's so easy to do, why isn't everyone doing it?
If it's not easy, then someone is bragging. Not saying that bragging is bad. I like to brag too when I'm good at something.
Nevertheless, I'm glad this thread finally got started so I know where to go when I want to read this stuff instead of just finding it randomly in almost any other thread.
If it's not easy, then someone is bragging. Not saying that bragging is bad. I like to brag too when I'm good at something.
Nevertheless, I'm glad this thread finally got started so I know where to go when I want to read this stuff instead of just finding it randomly in almost any other thread.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
It wouldn't be the same. I paper traded different strategies in the past --- successfully most of the time. When I turned them into real trading, emotions took over. I could not help that, and I am sure it would happen again.MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:59 amCorto, you have Jan 1 just around the corner. Why don't we (you) play a game where you paper trade TLT and GLD throughout 2020 and see if you can turn a profit? I used to have a broker that allowed a fake paper trading account along side the real one; not sure if that is still available with your broker, otherwise you can just use a spreadsheet. You can keep us current in this thread or start another. I'm curious to see if anyone other than MJ can do it. My experience was always like yours: way more losers than winners.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:52 am mj, I am glad you show up every now and then to do this.
Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.
There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.
But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!
So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
I think it takes a very specific mentality to do this where if you can disconnect your emotions, you can be successful. That is the biggest reason the pp works for me.
Now in my early 50s, with a decent nest egg, there's no way in hell I would trade anything of any significance this way. When I would make these trades, most were in the $500-$10,000 range. mj talking about hundreds of k on this type of trading, I'd have a freaking heart attack.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
But if gld and Tlt drops it is the same permanent portfolio everyone here likely owns .... no one ever went broke taking a profit ...
I just find things like gold and treasuries are not about time in the market like equities, they are more timing the market to me ..just look at the difference between this week and last week ....
....
So it is not speculating at all .....if it spikes I get my profit ,,,if it doesn’t it is the same permanent portfolio...
The only risk is that gold and Tlt will fall while the equities go up and the equities will get sand bagged by gld and Tlt ...but that is the same risk the pp always runs .
I just find things like gold and treasuries are not about time in the market like equities, they are more timing the market to me ..just look at the difference between this week and last week ....
....
So it is not speculating at all .....if it spikes I get my profit ,,,if it doesn’t it is the same permanent portfolio...
The only risk is that gold and Tlt will fall while the equities go up and the equities will get sand bagged by gld and Tlt ...but that is the same risk the pp always runs .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Really, you believe that it is not speculating?
Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?
And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?
And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
I appreciate your saying that. I felt like a jerk for requesting it, but now I'm happy it's all here in one spot if I want to peek, and not floating around like all those 1/2 cents in Superman III.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
You weren't a jerk. You were a genius. I'm glad you thought of it.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Well I had about 28 trades in gld over the year and each one captured at least 1% so you do the math ....so it can be far more profitable taking small hit and runs because many of those trades were in the same day ........ even if the trend is up it has 1 to 2% moves all the time ...same with Tlt ... I did not trade it as much ... but realize that money is in all those other things when not in gld or Tlt adding to the profits as the same money gets recycled .Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:42 pm Really, you believe that it is not speculating?
Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?
And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
Markets spend about 80% of the time somewhere between there last low and last high so there is plenty of small volatility trading that can be just up an down going no where . The stock never has to go any higher and you can just catch the 1 or 2% move over and over and over ...I can think of very few things that did not experience a 1 or 2% set back in very very short time trading that did not at least bounce back in a couple of days enough to buy and sell out at a profit even if small when wrong ....
as you saw above , I had very few losing trades where I did not get a chance to get out with at least a small profit if things did not go my way.. there is usually a bounce even if after that bounce it goes down more .
But remember this is not my main investing portfolio, this is my variable portfolio which is really my fun trading ..it just happens to trade gld and Tlt a lot so it is easy to make a pp out of it worst comes to worse .
I have big positions in both Tlt and Gld as I completed the buys Friday , over 275k in each since we sold the last of our real estate in sept and were holding cash ,so if it does not go my way ,who cares ... worst case is I hold it and I am no different than anyone else here. There is no downside other than by tying up the money in gld and Tlt I won’t get the quick returns I plan on if I have to sit and wait and then I am a full fledged pp user .
But I think the current situation is going to leave both Tlt and Gld very volatile and a good vehicle for what I do.
I also have the luxury of taking my conservative fidelity insight income portfolio which is 25% equities and selling off the bond portion and averaging down in to the permanent portfolio if gold and Tlt fall a lot ....I can effectively double my position in the pp doubling down and averaging out much lower .
One thing I like is flexibility in my investing , it opens the door for so many ways to do things .....
By structuring our portfolios differently at different stages of our lives it allowed us to have maximum growth early on and now in retirement we have quite a few different options running different portfolios that serve different purposes
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Wouldn't work for me, bottom line. Glad it works for you.
My results, this year, if I had 275k in each of GLD and TLT in each at the beginning of the year I would be sitting on a paper gain of $65k. With no work.
Obviously, they don't go up every year, and your strategy has a better chance of catching ups and downs. You seem to have good control at not getting burned.
My results, this year, if I had 275k in each of GLD and TLT in each at the beginning of the year I would be sitting on a paper gain of $65k. With no work.
Obviously, they don't go up every year, and your strategy has a better chance of catching ups and downs. You seem to have good control at not getting burned.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .
hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .
hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Ever think about using TMF and UGLD? Can you restate when you buy and when you sell. Is it wait for 5% drop and then buy. Sell when you have a 1% plus trade.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .
hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Do you think it's your device or the website?mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:04 am i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Can you put some details down as to what you are doing?
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
I'm asking about how he is doing these trades, thank you for asking!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
As most know here my what I will call my permanent investments ,have been following the models in the fidelity insight newsletters for more than 30 years ... but I am a tinkerer at heart and always enjoy my seat of the pants trading ...
I don’t really have a format or criteria other then I look for something beaten up and I will take a shot on a bounce even if it is a dead cat bounce for a couple of quick points ..
I tend to like gld ,Tlt , and oil uso for my trades
I have different amounts in these trades at different times so depending what is available so is the size of the investment .
I had bought gld and Tlt after some down days a few weeks ago for about the 10th time this year ...a little voice in my head said sell the day of the fed announcement .... so I sold , and next day it went up even more ...oh well I sold to early .....but then the selling started and within days they both were down thousands from where I sold .....when I thought it fell enough in dollars for the size of the investment I was going to make I bought in Tuesday , debated selling wed when I was up about 4K but decided to stay put ...Well Thursday and Friday saw more selling so I decided to add to both positions .
So I have 275k in each of gld ,Tlt with a max if we dip further of 300k in each ..... so if we fall I will average down up to 25k more ..... when I see 1 to 2% in profit I will capture it and sell ....if we dip farther then I am a pp user until it has its day in the sun again ....
I can’t really say many times what my return would have been because if I leave Tlt or gld it is to buy something else , so the gains don’t stop ...sometimes it is weeks and I am in cash instruments getting interest while waiting for the next investment...
So while I have been lucky and make money it is really more for fun than return , I just love the game ....
But because gold and long term treasuries can make a nifty portfolio if I am wrong I have no reservations about putting the same amount of dollars in as I would one of my actual portfolios.
Having just completed the sale of all our real estate I felt I had enough invested in markets and at this stage I didn’t want anymore in the models which already have multiple 7 figures ...so I figured at least with gold and Tlt they can fly fighter cover for the other stuff if we have one continual rate rise and I can’t get an exit point ..
Anyway that’s the story and I will let you know what I do when I do it ....the plan is if I see a 2% rise from here it all goes ....if we have another 1% drop I will add the remaining 25k
I don’t really have a format or criteria other then I look for something beaten up and I will take a shot on a bounce even if it is a dead cat bounce for a couple of quick points ..
I tend to like gld ,Tlt , and oil uso for my trades
I have different amounts in these trades at different times so depending what is available so is the size of the investment .
I had bought gld and Tlt after some down days a few weeks ago for about the 10th time this year ...a little voice in my head said sell the day of the fed announcement .... so I sold , and next day it went up even more ...oh well I sold to early .....but then the selling started and within days they both were down thousands from where I sold .....when I thought it fell enough in dollars for the size of the investment I was going to make I bought in Tuesday , debated selling wed when I was up about 4K but decided to stay put ...Well Thursday and Friday saw more selling so I decided to add to both positions .
So I have 275k in each of gld ,Tlt with a max if we dip further of 300k in each ..... so if we fall I will average down up to 25k more ..... when I see 1 to 2% in profit I will capture it and sell ....if we dip farther then I am a pp user until it has its day in the sun again ....
I can’t really say many times what my return would have been because if I leave Tlt or gld it is to buy something else , so the gains don’t stop ...sometimes it is weeks and I am in cash instruments getting interest while waiting for the next investment...
So while I have been lucky and make money it is really more for fun than return , I just love the game ....
But because gold and long term treasuries can make a nifty portfolio if I am wrong I have no reservations about putting the same amount of dollars in as I would one of my actual portfolios.
Having just completed the sale of all our real estate I felt I had enough invested in markets and at this stage I didn’t want anymore in the models which already have multiple 7 figures ...so I figured at least with gold and Tlt they can fly fighter cover for the other stuff if we have one continual rate rise and I can’t get an exit point ..
Anyway that’s the story and I will let you know what I do when I do it ....the plan is if I see a 2% rise from here it all goes ....if we have another 1% drop I will add the remaining 25k