mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

no , i am holding that to offset my gold dip ... both are pretty much even since i bought friday ...

i added a little today to sgol to have it match tlt's balance

[mathjak107]

i hate adding more with tlt up so much even though i would like to add to sgol . but no rush , lets see what happens. i like keeping them even but with tlt plunging in a heart beat i don't want to pick a big up day .

of course my instinct is sell tlt and lock in the profit and just keep gold .

[amdda01]

TLT +6.25%

Tempting enough?

[mathjak107]

omg , to funny . i just sold it ..... i couldnt resist a gain like that from just friday at the close.

[amdda01]

Knew it.

Sittin' tight w/ gold?

[mathjak107]

no , that narrowed this morning to where it went from down 2k to down like 200 bucks so i sold and will wait for another opportunity . so overall made a few thousand since friday. out of both for now .

[mathjak107]

early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..

[Cortopassi]

I respectfully disagree somewhat. I don't know what % cash would make me get through the past couple weeks if I was otherwise only in stocks.

Current delta is about 35% down on S&P from high, gosh, only a couple weeks ago it seems. Same delta on my PP is 14.4% down. So less than half the drop.

I suppose I could mimic that result with 50% cash and 50% stocks. But the pp is also about holding individually volatile assets to be able to rebalance.

But I see your point.

[mathjak107]

i am sure there are pp users that are blown away by the pp falling 14% and are sick over it . there has to be simply because it is no different then the behavior we see in balanced funds .

morningstar and ibbotsen data shows investor behavior as a group is as bad in balanced portfolios as it is in growth funds ,just because those in them are more gun shy with lower pucker factor. so they get stressed out at lower trigger point ...so poor investor behavior shows the same effect ...

a 14% drop in a portfolio value is a lot , for any investor potentially if the dollars accumulated are high enough ... just 7% is a decade of 401k contributions at catch up for me

[shekels]

early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

[pmward]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

[shekels]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

The Fed can paper over the issues. Until they can"t anymore.

[pmward]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

The Fed can paper over the issues. Until they can"t anymore.

This is very true. But the day they can't anymore is not today. I mean, in the short term chaos can still happen as liquidity remains tight. But the synchronization between massive amounts of monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus here, as well as the synchronized stimulus being dropped globally, will paint over this crisis eventually as well. However... when this is in the rearview they will not be able to paint over the next crisis/recession unless we are able to actually go through a mean reversion event where interest rates can go back up. Also, if inflation starts to kick back up to 3%+, God help us all.

[amdda01]

"i think first hint of a resolution the 8-9% drop we saw in gold and TLT last week will be small potatoes compared to the drop when the fear factor ebbs"

TLT -5.18%

Could this be the beginning?

[mathjak107]

I am watching it now getting ready to buy again..it is down almost 3k from yesterday’s sale

[amdda01]

What about your other stuff (USO, EEM, MCHI)?

[mathjak107]

Long gone .......

All I have are my core fidelity funds ,and perhaps Tlt in a bit ..it is sinking like a turd in a punch bowl

[amdda01]

But are you watching those guys?

USO all time low.

[mathjak107]

But are you watching those guys?

USO all time low.

Yep ...it is amazing looking at some of the energy sector ..
.

[mathjak107]

If I was going to speculate on something I sooner do it on Tlt and sqol or gld .... i don’t mind getting stuck with them , there is always a flash in the pan no matter how brief..uso not so much

[amdda01]

Holy krap :

TLT -6.63%

[mathjak107]

Got Tlt at 153.00 ......it was down more than 6.50% today ....It really plunged at the end falling below 153 .....

Well let’s see what tomorrow brings.. bought what I had yesterday and pocketed 3500 difference
1 to 2% moves used to be a lot ..holy cow ,these moves are insane

[mathjak107]

tlt down another 2.50% early am .. that is almost 10% in 24Hrs .... i may be buying back gold today , that is down more than 2% early am .

[Cortopassi]

mj,

You are always doing this with GLD and TLT. Given the past couple weeks 5-15% per day swings in stocks, are you doing it in those? Seems like easy money, almost every day is either up big or down big with no in between.

If not, why do you not? Just curious, because you otherwise do a good job of tweaking (me at least) with your GLD and TLT are down middle of the night posts.

But you don't do the same type of post with the DOW is limit down. Hmmm. Bias??

[mathjak107]

mj,

You are always doing this with GLD and TLT. Given the past couple weeks 5-15% per day swings in stocks, are you doing it in those? Seems like easy money, almost every day is either up big or down big with no in between.

If not, why do you not? Just curious, because you otherwise do a good job of tweaking (me at least) with your GLD and TLT are down middle of the night posts.

But you don't do the same type of post with the DOW is limit down. Hmmm. Bias??

i only trade tlt and gld ...with stocks i have my allocation and core and for the most part are long term holds like one may switch from the pp to the butterfly at times and then back ... . if anything i am adding with each dip to the insight growth model bringing equities up from the 22% it fell to ... so i don't really get excited over the moves in stocks up or down since i stick to the plan .. basically my variable portfolio i trade is the pp components .

i want to eventually get back to 40% equities so i added about 20% of the money in to more equities on these dips with 80% still earmarked to go in if we fall far enough , if not then i rather not get it all in and stay at these levels . ...

for the most part the core holdings are boring .....