mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:25 pm

I agree. Chasing it down has been nuts
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:40 am

MJ,

So holding for now with TLT?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:26 pm

Yes , I have no real choice , down 45k in this lead weight, gold down 36k as of this moment
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:02 pm

Yes ,Tlt up 1 cent .....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:51 am

So much for being up 1 cent ...premarket Tlt and Gld doing their normal slide down ...more losses it looks like , yeeech.

This is turning in to a nasty blood bath day after day
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:06 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:51 am
So much for being up 1 cent ...premarket Tlt and Gld doing their normal slide down ...more losses it looks like , yeeech
Regarding TLT (I am not aware of that, as I normally use accumulating European ETFs that reinvest the dividends behind the curtains) - do you know what's the ratio of capital losses vs dividend gains in the past months ? Actually convexity suggest exponential dependency and the longer duration, steeper it gets.. interested in rough numbers i.e. if you have any idea
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:21 am

All that matters is what my total return is including reinvestment .

Since rates started rising in august Tlt got smashed dividends and all. Both are in a bear market from august highs .

Luckily I only made the change in investment strategy over to the pp this year....so I am only down 6.30% in Tlt and 5.50 in gld not including today’s likely losses. So at least I am not down the full amounts the two actually fell since I started , as i dollar cost averaged in as it fell since January .

Gld is down 10% ytd and tlt down around 12 % ..as of now ...Tlt includes dividends.

The fidelity insight models I chose to leave for the safety of the pp show

The income model up 1.42% and growth model up 5.07%

so far not a good swap in portfolio components.

Each day the invested dollars we have committed, are rolling over daily and that amount we have is rolling over monthly , which eventually rolls over into years of compounding up or down as our investment journeys continue along every day we are invested.

It is just one large continuation of our investment history .

It is like traveling the world ..we may leave one country for another or one city for another but everything that happens good or bad is all part of that trip ....a bad experience along the way is a bad experience and you can’t say it is because you spent to much time or not enough time in a place ..rather it is what it is as our trip continues on
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:56 am

Makes me sick since I’ve seen this never ending slide in GLD and TLT before (feeding off each other). I don’t own TLT and have reduced GLD to 15% of PP and only 5% of portfolio. TLT swapped for ITT’s.

If your timeframe for the PP is less than “forever” would you even choose the portfolio in the first place?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:07 am

Well it would never be a choice for my accumulation stage ....

Retirement , jury is still out ...so far it has done poorly compared to the conservative model I was using .

But each day is a new day and I am hoping it comes around ..but like I said , I hope it is before it is in such a hole to get out that most of the gains are eaten up by trying to see it’s way clear at the same time stocks are falling ,and I am still just as much behind.

Eventually you can reach a point where when it finally has its day in the sun it is not enough to overcome the damage that has been increasing daily
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:12 am

I know this will sound weird, since I know that both of you are probably sitting calmly in chairs writing on the internet, but I like to imagine you as Willem Defoe in Boondock Saints, whirling around and yelling,

"Premarkets were down... The selling fed off itself.

The PP assets were under attack. There was nowhere to hide...

THERE WAS A FIRE FIGHT!"
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:17 am

All I need to see is each days action to form my opinion..it may change over time but until it does it is all we got to judge by....

Like I said to little to late in a rebound in Gld and tlt is still going to be poor performance..

If stocks then sand bag their recovery then all we did is wait so long for the ship to come in the pier collapsed
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:34 am

If mj and budd haven't read this from Tyler, you should.

I actually would be interested in your opinions, and I am sure others would as well.

Again I know this is the daytrading topic, but man you guys are good at making me at least feel like gold and TLT will never do anything but go down.

Go back to almost one year ago. Did anyone think the pp had any chance of being up nearly 20% for most of us for the year?

You guys are nearly minute by minute mentally managing and commenting on this portfolio. ANY portfolio can drive you nuts in that kind of timeframe.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/03/02/ ... he-matrix/
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:40 am

It is not a question of gold or Tlt not doing anything ever ..no one said that .

The issue is will they dig themselves into a hole so deep that their day in the sun won’t even pull them out or not be able to pull you out as an existing investor if stocks are the unfavored asset and fell .

Newer investors won’t have those losses weighing them down but we will...so they may see Tlt and hold easily offset a drop in equities...but we may have slid so far most of that is expelled trying to get clear again and move forward.

I need a 52k gain in Tlt just to break even and 45k in gold ....
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:48 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:40 am
It is not a question of gold or Tlt not doing anything ever ..no one said that .

The issue is will they dig themselves into a hole so deep that their day in the sun won’t even pull them out or not be able to pull you out as an existing investor if stocks are the unfavored asset and fell .

Newer investors won’t have those losses weighing them down but we will...
Your question hinges on the starting point of the portfolio. ..one can probably backtest that data.

As far as older investors I've benefitted from the swings in these assets by buying and selling them as they swing in and out of favor.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:50 am

doodle wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:48 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:40 am
It is not a question of gold or Tlt not doing anything ever ..no one said that .

The issue is will they dig themselves into a hole so deep that their day in the sun won’t even pull them out or not be able to pull you out as an existing investor if stocks are the unfavored asset and fell .

Newer investors won’t have those losses weighing them down but we will...
Your question hinges on the starting point of the portfolio. ..one can probably backtest that data.

As far as older investors I've benefitted from the swings in these assets by buying and selling them as they swing in and out of favor.
I have as well, but are you willing to make that bet in a rising interest rate environment?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:51 am

Well if you follow what I have been saying until that happens and we profit over what ever your measurement time frame is ,it is only a wish
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:53 am

When I made the decision end of December we did not have this crazy fast jump in rates and the sourness on bonds ..so I did it ...I If was looking to do it today based on the last two months , no , I would not have switched models to the pp.

What I had was fine
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:05 am

Hey it is your guys' money!

All I can say is I have followed mj's trades here with jealousy, because you were so adept at getting in and out with profits.

Until now, at least for some amount of time.

Just cements, for me, what I've known since I entered the pp in 2014. If I tried to do what mj has done, I would have had a 100% different outcome, and I'd definitely be poorer for it.

You all can comment about a rising interest rate environment. All I can say is I do not know and I try not to think I know. People have been saying this literally for decades. And people have been calling for stocks to crater for years. And Amazon to crater. And Tesla to go bankrupt. And on and on.

Better to tune it out and stick with a plan (for me)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:19 am

The portfolio has been reduced to 75% stocks/25% cash on down days as GLD and TLT search for a bottom.
Stocks go up, we see some life.
Stocks go down, GLD and TLT follow.

I wanted with all my heart to stay 4x25 in taxable as I entered retirement on 4/20 but just couldn’t watch gains in TLT evaporate before my eyes. I switched to 50% cash and rationalized the decision with - I would buy stocks and gold as they fell reducing some of these funds. I have been buying IAU.

I want to return to 4x25 but I need to see some strength in TLT before doing so.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:08 am

Would you discount gold so readily after looking at this chart? I am sure stock aficionados look at 2008 and early 2020 as mere blips on a long term scale.

But gold engenders a much more emotional, irrational response from many people, myself included.

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:26 am

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:46 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:19 am
I have been buying IAU.
I'm curious why the confidence in gold right now?

I would think that as long as long term yields are rising gold will fall even more than LTTs and will only start outperforming once LTTs find a ceiling.
It’s to counterbalance the excess amount in cash.
I agree with your viewpoint but will not abandon the PP entirely and Gold fits nicely into the rest of my portfolio - PP + VP
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:52 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:05 am
Hey it is your guys' money!

All I can say is I have followed mj's trades here with jealousy, because you were so adept at getting in and out with profits.

Until now, at least for some amount of time.

Just cements, for me, what I've known since I entered the pp in 2014. If I tried to do what mj has done, I would have had a 100% different outcome, and I'd definitely be poorer for it.

You all can comment about a rising interest rate environment. All I can say is I do not know and I try not to think I know. People have been saying this literally for decades. And people have been calling for stocks to crater for years. And Amazon to crater. And Tesla to go bankrupt. And on and on.

Better to tune it out and stick with a plan (for me)
However if you followed my lead on my core portfolios you would have been way ahead ....the trading was just fun positions
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:53 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:52 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:05 am
Hey it is your guys' money!

All I can say is I have followed mj's trades here with jealousy, because you were so adept at getting in and out with profits.

Until now, at least for some amount of time.

Just cements, for me, what I've known since I entered the pp in 2014. If I tried to do what mj has done, I would have had a 100% different outcome, and I'd definitely be poorer for it.

You all can comment about a rising interest rate environment. All I can say is I do not know and I try not to think I know. People have been saying this literally for decades. And people have been calling for stocks to crater for years. And Amazon to crater. And Tesla to go bankrupt. And on and on.

Better to tune it out and stick with a plan (for me)
However if you followed my lead on my core portfolios you would have been way ahead ....
So what was your overall % gain for 2020?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:07 pm

2020 Income model 12% , growth model 34% .I used a mix of the two

2019 was income model 13% growth model 30%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:34 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:07 pm
2020 Income model 12% , growth model 34% .I used a mix of the two

2019 was income model 13% growth model 30%
Ok, so lazy old me, in the PP, got a hair over 20% in 2020.

If you use a mix, I'll say 50/50 but you can correct, you got 23%.

2019 I got 18.66%, you got 19.5%.

I don't know if you roll in your TLT gains/losses in those numbers, but the PP for all its apparent warts, seems to have held up pretty well for the past two years.
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