mathjak's daytrading adventures

[pmward]

Time in the markets seems to work pretty good for both to me... even better if someone were rebalancing along the way to generate alpha from the volatility that you are so afraid of: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Now, if someone has the skill to actually trade these things short term, with a bit of luck they obviously they can generate substantial alpha. However, most people do not have these skills or luck (and do not forget I have some technical analysis skills myself) and there is nothing wrong with someone following a rules based rebalancing system. I think they will do just fine on the whole through this crisis and going forward.

[mathjak107]

I am not comfortable with holding Tlt and Gld as opposed to trading them treating them as I would my variable portfolio.... but then again I am never one to be happy being average either .....

But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......

[dualstow]

But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......

Or as I like to call them, everyone else on the forum.

[mathjak107]

Just put limit orders in for both Tlt and sgol ....they are now far enough below where I sold to take a shot on a pop

[pmward]

Why SGOL if you're doing a short term trade? Not liquid enough. GLD is the ETF to use if you're just playing a short term swing. The spread bites you more than the ER in short term holds.

[mathjak107]

I started trading sgol because I don’t want to support hsbc bank who is the custodian for Gld .

I have no issues getting my trades s executed...my limit orders were hit about 10 minutes before the close .....both for sgol and Tlt .....I did not think it would hit but as trump spoke markets went up and Tlt and Gld down

[mathjak107]

so with TLT down almost 8% for the week and gold down more than 9% for the week it looked like a good entry point ... lets see if i get an exit point this week for gold and tlt that aint a stop loss ha ha ha .

interesting that for the week both a total market fund and gold fell just about exact amounts and tlt was within 1% of doing the same .

i can't say there was much if any of a SLEEP factor last week between any of them . all had horrible drops


morningstar shows for the week ,

vti down 9.74

gld down 9.06

tlt down 7.69

[amdda01]

MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?

[mathjak107]

MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?

how much goes in varies based on a lot of things .

right now i did 50k in each ...if it pope 3% or so monday it's gone .... if we sink 5% more i will add 25K to each ..... i have had as much as 500k in each at times ...it all depends what is going on in the other portfolio ....

right now i dont want to much in total bond funds , corporate , high yield , etc so that portion has the majority sitting in cash ... it will get deployed wherever value is perceived .

i would not commit to much to the pp at this stage ....

i think first hint of a resolution the 8-9% drop we saw in gold and TLT last week will be small potatoes compared to the drop when the fear factor ebbs ...especially because i believe we will see a surge in to equities at these reduced prices so money will flow out in record amounts in my opinion .

so i would need this corona thing to shake out before i would do a few hundred thousand in each again .

[pmward]

Either way, the volatility of gold and bonds (and stocks for that matter) is bound to be really high again this week as we don't just have the virus news to contend with, but the Fed meeting and announcement as well. All eyes will be watching what the Fed does and says, and the markets will dissect and over exaggerate everything they do and say. God forbid Powell puts his foot in his mouth yet again at this time... I really hope they just cut rates, officially announce QE4, and that Powell says nothing beyond "we will do whatever it takes" in the speech because anything less than that I fear would be perceived as hawkish and exaggerate the selling in all assets.

[mathjak107]

well one thing is certain next week ...I am either taking profits and out , or doubling down and waiting ……I just hope I don't get caught in a down draft for two long as I wait for a pop to get out …..we always have a flash in the pan at some point in gld and tlt . even if it is a day .

[amdda01]

"right now i did 50k in each ...if it pops 3% or so monday it's gone "

TLT up 4.30% - You out?

[mathjak107]

no , i am holding that to offset my gold dip ... both are pretty much even since i bought friday ...

i added a little today to sgol to have it match tlt's balance

[mathjak107]

i hate adding more with tlt up so much even though i would like to add to sgol . but no rush , lets see what happens. i like keeping them even but with tlt plunging in a heart beat i don't want to pick a big up day .

of course my instinct is sell tlt and lock in the profit and just keep gold .

[amdda01]

TLT +6.25%

Tempting enough?

[mathjak107]

omg , to funny . i just sold it ..... i couldnt resist a gain like that from just friday at the close.

[amdda01]

Knew it.

Sittin' tight w/ gold?

[mathjak107]

no , that narrowed this morning to where it went from down 2k to down like 200 bucks so i sold and will wait for another opportunity . so overall made a few thousand since friday. out of both for now .

[mathjak107]

early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..

[Cortopassi]

I respectfully disagree somewhat. I don't know what % cash would make me get through the past couple weeks if I was otherwise only in stocks.

Current delta is about 35% down on S&P from high, gosh, only a couple weeks ago it seems. Same delta on my PP is 14.4% down. So less than half the drop.

I suppose I could mimic that result with 50% cash and 50% stocks. But the pp is also about holding individually volatile assets to be able to rebalance.

But I see your point.

[mathjak107]

i am sure there are pp users that are blown away by the pp falling 14% and are sick over it . there has to be simply because it is no different then the behavior we see in balanced funds .

morningstar and ibbotsen data shows investor behavior as a group is as bad in balanced portfolios as it is in growth funds ,just because those in them are more gun shy with lower pucker factor. so they get stressed out at lower trigger point ...so poor investor behavior shows the same effect ...

a 14% drop in a portfolio value is a lot , for any investor potentially if the dollars accumulated are high enough ... just 7% is a decade of 401k contributions at catch up for me

[shekels]

early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

[pmward]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

[shekels]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

The Fed can paper over the issues. Until they can"t anymore.

[pmward]

i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity

Of course they haven't fixed the issues. They are simply painting over them. Long term, that is bullish for both bonds and (especially) gold. In the short term, there is definitely a liquidity squeeze going on.

The Fed can paper over the issues. Until they can"t anymore.

This is very true. But the day they can't anymore is not today. I mean, in the short term chaos can still happen as liquidity remains tight. But the synchronization between massive amounts of monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus here, as well as the synchronized stimulus being dropped globally, will paint over this crisis eventually as well. However... when this is in the rearview they will not be able to paint over the next crisis/recession unless we are able to actually go through a mean reversion event where interest rates can go back up. Also, if inflation starts to kick back up to 3%+, God help us all.