mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:41 am

It is the old virgin theory .

Unless someone has an alternative to gauge they dont know how far or ahead they are .

I mean I was a bit surprised that in running those comparison numbers here for the last 15 and ten year periods the difference was double in most cases when comparing the pp to fidelity contra ...so millions would be given up ....but if you don’t know the difference over your accumulation stage then you may think you did great
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:43 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:40 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am
It is impossible to do really because all bills are paid and money transfers are done through the same accounts .not looking is not an option today
What about setting up monthly cash transfers to a separate account to cover living expenses?

I really wish Rowland or Tex would drop in from time to time with some insights. They have a knack for calming people down.
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am
This is excellent advice and I have tried ignoring the PP at times. Problem is I don’t have faith in the portfolio’s ability to navigate these waters unscathed. I sincerely doubt many on this board are holding 25% in LTT’s and 25% in Gold when all accounts, cash, etc are combined. It sounds good on paper but you often end up with disappointment. Believe me I’ve tried.
Disappointment is a function of ones expectations in life. As Charlie Munger has said, lower your expectations enough and you won't suffer from disappointment. This is especially sage advice when it pertains to situations and events that are outside of our control. I have no idea whether the PP will be the best choice or the worst or somewhere in the middle...but that same uncertainty goes for any allocation at this point. I have resigned myself to the sad reality that I am unfortunately not clairvoyant and therefore best suited to a completely agnostic allocation. To me the only thing worth getting concerned about regarding this allocation is if any of the assets no longer respond to the respective economic conditions they were intended to address. If we get deflation and bonds crash...I will start scratching my head.
Not worth the extra work ..plus all my direct deposits go in to the brokerage ...it would be silly moving money to do the same thing plus my bank holds some of the pp in my chase account so not good anyway
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:47 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:41 am
It is the old virgin theory .

Unless someone has an alternative to gauge they dont know how far or ahead they are .

I mean I was a bit surprised that in running those comparison numbers here for the last 15 and ten year periods the difference was double in most cases when comparing the pp to fidelity contra ...so millions would be given up ....but if you don’t know the difference over your accumulation stage then you may think you did great
Oh sure, absolutely. But fortunately it works. Constantly comparing yourself against everything and everyone else is a recipe for a miserable life. It afflicts millionaires who compare themselves to multimillionaires, and multimillionaires who are unfortunately not billionaires. Yet, some of the happiest humans own nothing more than a bowl and a few rags. Life is funny like that.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:53 am

Simply buying a fund and letting it run through decades of accumulation time is simple as pie ...poor investor behavior happens no matter what they buy .

So whether buying a fund like contra or a total ,market fund , odds are over decades you will do quite well ..in fact it reaches a point you could have lost half the last 15 or ten years and still had more than the pp when I ran the numbers and we know odds of markets staying down 50% is almost non existent.

So like I said everything has a price to pay ,whether you care is another story
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:55 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:31 am

Problem is I don’t have faith in the portfolio’s ability to navigate these waters unscathed.
I'm not religious...but this portfolio has made me realize the importance of faith. Biblical stories like Job or stoic philosophy comes to life through investing...perhaps that's why it holds our attention. It's the closet thing we have in our modern day to the uncertainty that our ancestors faced on a daily basis. Except they didn't have bond vigilantes...but plagues of locusts or disease that would starve or kill them.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:00 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:53 am
Simply buying a fund and letting it run through decades of accumulation time is simple as pie ...poor investor behavior happens no matter what they buy .

So whether buying a fund like contra or a total ,market fund , odds are over decades you will do quite well ..in fact it reaches a point you could have lost half the last 15 or ten years and still had more than the pp when I ran the numbers and we know odds of markets staying down 50% is almost non existent.

So like I said everything has a price to pay ,whether you care is another story
Yes, that has worked in the post WW2 united states quite well. It's been the strategy of the century for sure! Over that same time period in other countries, not so much....and over longer historical stretches, also not as certain. Anyone who backtests stocks half a century during what might be perhaps the most prosperous time in human history as evidence that stocks always win is cherry picking data in my opinion.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:15 am

I don’t worry about other countries....in fact if I lived in another country I would still buy us stocks.

We like to talk about Japan ...we are not Japan , we did not make the same mistakes as Japan that put them in a deflationary spiral. If I lived in Japan I could have invested elsewhere.

I always invested all my life up until pre retirement looking at what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:18 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:15 am
I don’t worry about other countries....in fact if I lived in another company I would still buy us stocks
That too is myopic and ethnocentric. From my perspective the United States looks fat, dumb, lazy, entitled, and politically inept compared to a lot of the rest of the world.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:19 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:18 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:15 am
I don’t worry about other countries....in fact if I lived in another company I would still buy us stocks
That too is myopic and ethnocentric. From my perspective the United States looks fat, dumb, lazy, entitled, and politically inept compared to a lot of the rest of the world.
And those are our good qualities ... but like I said above
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:21 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:15 am
I don’t worry about other countries....in fact if I lived in another country I would still buy us stocks.

We like to talk about Japan ...we are not Japan , we did not make the same mistakes as Japan that put them in a deflationary spiral. If I lived in Japan I could have invested elsewhere.

I always invested all my life up until pre retirement looking at what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing
Japan wasn't "Japan", until it was. Things continue until they dont. You got lucky, just like now you are unlucky. Same thing...they were both luck. One just happened to work out in your favor.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:27 am

We keep going round and round in circles though.

Fundamentally, I think you haven't accepted that no matter what you do your outcome will be based on luck. I think the sooner you accept that reality, the easier you will sleep at night with your decisions.

You got lucky for many years, but let's not confuse luck with skill. It cuts both ways...and it runs out eventually. If this allocation was the wrong turn, correct course immediately..don't keep digging with the hope of emerging out the other side. Everyday is a new day...what you say is undeniably true.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 am

Lucky for 40 years? It wasn’t luck ...it was the belief that American companies will do well over time ..in my accumulation stage I have no time restrictions or dead lines for the money and so some good diversified equity funds were all that were needed ...

Even those were swapped over the years as better choices fit the times improving gains . But they didn’t have to be ..
If I was still in my accumulation stage I would only be 100% equities....

But now I made my dough and so I can cut the throttle back and drive slower


Remember I always invested by what was , what is and what stands a reasonable chance chance of continuing...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:36 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 am
Lucky for 40 years? It wasn’t luck ...it was the belief that American companies will do well over time ..in my accumulation stage I have no time restrictions or dead lines for the money and so some good diversified equity funds were all that were needed ...

If I lived in Japan I would invest elsewhere it’s I had reservations about my own country ....
Yep, luck for 40 years! You could have made the same bet on America over this time frame.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:41 am

But again Japan made terrible mistakes that we learned about in1929 ..so we are not Japan .

I have no interest in comparing what if’s , especially to other countries when it comes to investing .

If I was going to compare to Japan I wouldn’t have been an investor at all to be honest , why bother.

I invest here because I believe in here
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:41 am

Or maybe this 40 year time frame?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:43 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:41 am
But again Japan made terrible mistakes that we learned about in1929 ..so we are not Japan .

I have no interest in comparing what if’s , especially to other countries when it comes to investing .

If I was going to compare to Japan I wouldn’t have been an investor at all to be honest , why bother.

I invest here because I believe in here
Our "mistakes" are as of yet unknown to us. I'd argue that you believe in here because you have been lucky.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:43 am

How about just picking any typical accumulation stage which typically can span 25-40 years right here in America and see if you had anything to worry about by retirement time. I will argue nope. You still had a return close to the average
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:53 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:43 am
How about just picking any typical accumulation stage which typically can span 25-40 years right here in America and see if you had anything to worry about by retirement time. I will argue nope. You still had a return close to the average
So someone born at the turn of the century who started working and investing after world war 1 isn't typical?

Or someone who started investing around 1950 at the age of 25 and right as they were hitting their peak earning years at age 35 to 40 saw market declines that by 1980...(when they turned 55 ) left them essentially flat for 30 years? By age 65 when they hit retirement in 1990 they were at the same levels as in 1960...maybe at that point they got lucky and invested in tech...and rode that up. Finally they got a lucky break! Then in 2000 their retirement portfolio declined 85%..but things always come back! So they held on...for another 15 years before breaking even again. By this time they were 80 years old...and then they died.

You got lucky.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am

When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp.

He thing is certain you would really have to cherry pick a year to really find something untypical if there was one
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:05 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am
When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp
Maybe...but you still haven't given me a rational explanation why you don't recommit to what is undeniably a more winning strategy? Why do you continue to bet on the same lame horse day after day when there are much better options in the stable? You made a losing bet on a losing horse. Why continue to do that over and over again? From past conversations it's because you must believe that the asset allocation you currently have has the best chance of meeting your goals moving forward....if not, you would have changed it. Or...the other explanation is you are just as confused about the future as everyone else and decided to take a gamble on the PP. Unfortunately lady luck didn't smile on you this time.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:08 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am
When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp.

He thing is certain you would really have to cherry pick a year to really find something untypical if there was one
Also, I'm not cherry picking years...whether you started investing in 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953 I'm sure you would feel about the same around 1980.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:46 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:05 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am
When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp
Maybe...but you still haven't given me a rational explanation why you don't recommit to what is undeniably a more winning strategy? Why do you continue to bet on the same lame horse day after day when there are much better options in the stable? You made a losing bet on a losing horse. Why continue to do that over and over again? From past conversations it's because you must believe that the asset allocation you currently have has the best chance of meeting your goals moving forward....if not, you would have changed it. Or...the other explanation is you are just as confused about the future as everyone else and decided to take a gamble on the PP. Unfortunately lady luck didn't smile on you this time.
Why ? Because to undo the damage inflicted by Tlt and gld would take 75% equities on the way back up ...I can’t cover come what amounted to 50% of the portfolio tanking like that and try to recover with only 25-30% equ
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:47 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:27 am
We keep going round and round in circles though.

Fundamentally, I think you haven't accepted that no matter what you do your outcome will be based on luck. I think the sooner you accept that reality, the easier you will sleep at night with your decisions.

You got lucky for many years, but let's not confuse luck with skill. It cuts both ways...and it runs out eventually. If this allocation was the wrong turn, correct course immediately..don't keep digging with the hope of emerging out the other side. Everyday is a new day...what you say is undeniably true.
I would argue if anything the pp was lucky with a 40 year bull market in bonds if you want to use the lucky argument
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:05 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:46 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:05 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am
When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp
Maybe...but you still haven't given me a rational explanation why you don't recommit to what is undeniably a more winning strategy? Why do you continue to bet on the same lame horse day after day when there are much better options in the stable? You made a losing bet on a losing horse. Why continue to do that over and over again? From past conversations it's because you must believe that the asset allocation you currently have has the best chance of meeting your goals moving forward....if not, you would have changed it. Or...the other explanation is you are just as confused about the future as everyone else and decided to take a gamble on the PP. Unfortunately lady luck didn't smile on you this time.
Why ? Because to undo the damage inflicted by Tlt and gld would take 75% equities on the way back up ...I can’t cover come what amounted to 50% of the portfolio tanking like that and try to recover with only 25-30% equ
Getting back to even is your own mental hangup. The new asset allocation only needs to outperform the current one to make the switch worthwhile.
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:47 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:27 am
We keep going round and round in circles though.

Fundamentally, I think you haven't accepted that no matter what you do your outcome will be based on luck. I think the sooner you accept that reality, the easier you will sleep at night with your decisions.

You got lucky for many years, but let's not confuse luck with skill. It cuts both ways...and it runs out eventually. If this allocation was the wrong turn, correct course immediately..don't keep digging with the hope of emerging out the other side. Everyday is a new day...what you say is undeniably true.
I would argue if anything the pp was lucky with a 40 year bull market in bonds if you want to use the lucky argument
The portfolio survived the bond bear market from 50s to 80s...it's been through that scenario before.

Even Harry Browne would admit though that in a tight money recession the portfolio will get hurt. Might we be in such an environment where cash wins? Perhaps! I'm light stocks and bonds by about 5%...no idea if that will workout...I might lose on that bet being cash heavy. Frankly, the potential gains almost aren't even worth the boring agony of me watching markets churn daily. What a waste of my time! I'm giving this a month or so before I say screw it and just balance back up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm

I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant.

Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not!

Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits...

I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good!

It's 63 here, I am riding my bike to work, my joints and body feel good, what the hell, I need to "look" for things to complain about. Stupid.
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