mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm

Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
I am down one entry-level Lamborghini, plus a bit more when the dust settles tomorrow.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
Last edited by doodle on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
I'm not at the point where swings are equal to my annual salary but nearing there...I really try to just focus on percentages. If one looks at the $$$s it is serious bad behavior bait.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm
yes , I am not arguing that . but based on action in gold and tlt with 5 to 8% moves because of machine trading , I am saying they will get it very hard once the risk off ends …. I think tlt and gld will see startling drops .
The haywire counter conventional movements in bonds stocks and gold in this crisis really makes me question the strength of our entire financial system. The pervasiveness of negative interest rates and the coordinated international central bank involvement in providing endless liquidity to the markets are the fundamental fears that drive gold's price don't you think? Not the current coronavirus fears? I see this as a problem that will dissipate anytime soon.
liquidity has been a problem ... what sellers want and what buyers want to pay are very different ... buyers will not accept such low rates and are causing rates t spike in order to see a sale happen .

total bond funds like bnd have been seeing huge swings .. tlt has been swinging 10 bucks . even fidelity ultra conservative bond fund which is the old style money market like we used to have pre the regulation changes has swung 5 cents .

high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:40 pm
Xan wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Let me tell you , I am only 25% equities , actually less with these drops and the dollars down are just incomprehensible once you accumulate sizable portfolios .....they get worse when multiple asset classes get hit together ......I think I am down a house in many areas of the country Ha ha ha
Yeah, I can't imagine what it's like when your portfolio swings dwarf your annual income. Hope to get there one day! But wow, that's a whole other level of investing cajones.
my conservative 25% equity model , is down about 275k from the high ... just 6.28% ytd and 8% from the high

our brains tend to think in terms of dollars not percentages ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:17 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:05 am
high yield has been swinging like stocks ..... the bond markets are weird .. i can see once the fear index dropping after this phenomenon with supposedly safe bond funds there is going to be blood in the streets as bond investors drive rates higher to be compensated .
Which I guess could hurt gold in the short term....but the long term debt monetization and negative real interest rate trend is still intact. Im just curious why you think gold takes a big dive? You don't think we are going to be revisiting the 1000 price support level again once the coronavirus story dissipates, do you?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am

I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vnatale » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:31 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am
I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides
May you be a prophet!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 am

I do agree with mathjak that there will be a "mad dash to equities once the fear subsides". I do think that bonds are likely to have a pretty big pullback (and as mathjak is also noting, as interest rates get lower the volatility increases on all bonds and like a double edged sword that does cut both directions). However, while I think a short term pullback in gold would likely happen... gold is still in a relatively new uptrend. It was so oversold for so long that I don't see a big pullback in gold. I see at most a typical bull market pullback and then resumption of the bull trend. In a worst case scenario it goes back and retests that 1350-1400 breakout level. If it does, this would be a massive buying opportunity, imo. Gold tends to trend in bull and bear market cycles that last about a decade each. We literally are less than 1 year into this gold bull market. Why would it end so soon this time? Especially with negative real yields and tons of liquidity being provided to the system? Gold has much higher to go over the next 10 years, and any pullback would be a short term healthy bull market pullback at most, as such it would be a dip to be welcomed and bought not feared. Bonds are a trickier matter. I have no clue what will happen with bonds from here. We are in uncharted territory here. As such, any bet would be a guess at best. I see no reason to do anything other that just follow the rebalancing rules and call it a day.
Last edited by pmward on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:04 am

i certainly would trade the moves in gold short term ... gold and tlt gains seem to be like an echo and are only there until they are not ....they are very situation dependent and in my opinion more about timing the markets then time in the markets
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:12 am

Time in the markets seems to work pretty good for both to me... even better if someone were rebalancing along the way to generate alpha from the volatility that you are so afraid of: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Now, if someone has the skill to actually trade these things short term, with a bit of luck they obviously they can generate substantial alpha. However, most people do not have these skills or luck (and do not forget I have some technical analysis skills myself) and there is nothing wrong with someone following a rules based rebalancing system. I think they will do just fine on the whole through this crisis and going forward.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am

I am not comfortable with holding Tlt and Gld as opposed to trading them treating them as I would my variable portfolio.... but then again I am never one to be happy being average either .....

But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am
But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
Or as I like to call them, everyone else on the forum. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:22 pm

Just put limit orders in for both Tlt and sgol ....they are now far enough below where I sold to take a shot on a pop
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:30 pm

Why SGOL if you're doing a short term trade? Not liquid enough. GLD is the ETF to use if you're just playing a short term swing. The spread bites you more than the ER in short term holds.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:03 pm

I started trading sgol because I don’t want to support hsbc bank who is the custodian for Gld .

I have no issues getting my trades s executed...my limit orders were hit about 10 minutes before the close .....both for sgol and Tlt .....I did not think it would hit but as trump spoke markets went up and Tlt and Gld down
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:49 am

so with TLT down almost 8% for the week and gold down more than 9% for the week it looked like a good entry point ... lets see if i get an exit point this week for gold and tlt that aint a stop loss ha ha ha .

interesting that for the week both a total market fund and gold fell just about exact amounts and tlt was within 1% of doing the same .

i can't say there was much if any of a SLEEP factor last week between any of them . all had horrible drops


morningstar shows for the week ,

vti down 9.74

gld down 9.06

tlt down 7.69
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:04 am

MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 am

amdda01 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:04 am
MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?
how much goes in varies based on a lot of things .

right now i did 50k in each ...if it pope 3% or so monday it's gone .... if we sink 5% more i will add 25K to each ..... i have had as much as 500k in each at times ...it all depends what is going on in the other portfolio ....

right now i dont want to much in total bond funds , corporate , high yield , etc so that portion has the majority sitting in cash ... it will get deployed wherever value is perceived .

i would not commit to much to the pp at this stage ....

i think first hint of a resolution the 8-9% drop we saw in gold and TLT last week will be small potatoes compared to the drop when the fear factor ebbs ...especially because i believe we will see a surge in to equities at these reduced prices so money will flow out in record amounts in my opinion .

so i would need this corona thing to shake out before i would do a few hundred thousand in each again .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:19 am

Either way, the volatility of gold and bonds (and stocks for that matter) is bound to be really high again this week as we don't just have the virus news to contend with, but the Fed meeting and announcement as well. All eyes will be watching what the Fed does and says, and the markets will dissect and over exaggerate everything they do and say. God forbid Powell puts his foot in his mouth yet again at this time... I really hope they just cut rates, officially announce QE4, and that Powell says nothing beyond "we will do whatever it takes" in the speech because anything less than that I fear would be perceived as hawkish and exaggerate the selling in all assets.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:46 am

well one thing is certain next week ...I am either taking profits and out , or doubling down and waiting ……I just hope I don't get caught in a down draft for two long as I wait for a pop to get out …..we always have a flash in the pan at some point in gld and tlt . even if it is a day .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:36 am

"right now i did 50k in each ...if it pops 3% or so monday it's gone "

TLT up 4.30% - You out?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:22 am

no , i am holding that to offset my gold dip ... both are pretty much even since i bought friday ...

i added a little today to sgol to have it match tlt's balance
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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