mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:29 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant.

Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not!

Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits...

I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good!

It's 63 here, I am riding my bike to work, my joints and body feel good, what the hell, I need to "look" for things to complain about. Stupid.
Unfortunately people always need to reference themselves against the jones's. This is one of humans favorite methods to inflict mental anguish upon themselves.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:54 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:05 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:46 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:05 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:59 am
When I get home I will do the math ..I bet it still beat the pp
Maybe...but you still haven't given me a rational explanation why you don't recommit to what is undeniably a more winning strategy? Why do you continue to bet on the same lame horse day after day when there are much better options in the stable? You made a losing bet on a losing horse. Why continue to do that over and over again? From past conversations it's because you must believe that the asset allocation you currently have has the best chance of meeting your goals moving forward....if not, you would have changed it. Or...the other explanation is you are just as confused about the future as everyone else and decided to take a gamble on the PP. Unfortunately lady luck didn't smile on you this time.
Why ? Because to undo the damage inflicted by Tlt and gld would take 75% equities on the way back up ...I can’t cover come what amounted to 50% of the portfolio tanking like that and try to recover with only 25-30% equ
Getting back to even is your own mental hangup. The new asset allocation only needs to outperform the current one to make the switch worthwhile.
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:47 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:27 am
We keep going round and round in circles though.

Fundamentally, I think you haven't accepted that no matter what you do your outcome will be based on luck. I think the sooner you accept that reality, the easier you will sleep at night with your decisions.

You got lucky for many years, but let's not confuse luck with skill. It cuts both ways...and it runs out eventually. If this allocation was the wrong turn, correct course immediately..don't keep digging with the hope of emerging out the other side. Everyday is a new day...what you say is undeniably true.
I would argue if anything the pp was lucky with a 40 year bull market in bonds if you want to use the lucky argument
The portfolio survived the bond bear market from 50s to 80s...it's been through that scenario before.

Even Harry Browne would admit though that in a tight money recession the portfolio will get hurt. Might we be in such an environment where cash wins? Perhaps! I'm light stocks and bonds by about 5%...no idea if that will workout...I might lose on that bet being cash heavy. Frankly, the potential gains almost aren't even worth the boring agony of me watching markets churn daily. What a waste of my time! I'm giving this a month or so before I say screw it and just balance back up.
No , it is not just a matter of beating the pp with what I switch too ,for that matter I could likely throw the money in the bank at zero and beat the pp if rates keep rising and never have the potential to recover my losses

Selling out now with a 120k loss in Tlt and Gld would be poor investor behavior.
The biggest gains are always when assets are coming out of a bear market not when breaking new highs .

If I was to switch now my only horse would be equities and without a 75% stake or so it is unlikely with stocks not coming out of a bear market of recovering much of that loss .

So I am better off Waiting to see if coming out of the bear gld and tlt can at least recover a good portion irrespective of what equities do..

The bear market in bonds from the 60 s to 80’s is not comparable since it was not at a time stocks were breaking new highs .

We have not had a bear like this in bonds while stocks were making new highs as a trend and rates were still near record lows ...this is uncharted
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:01 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant.

Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not!

Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits...

I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good!

It's 63 here, I am riding my bike to work, my joints and body feel good, what the hell, I need to "look" for things to complain about. Stupid.
For those who bought in around august they have pretty heavy losses in Tlt and Gld..those two have been fluctuating between 15-20%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:55 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant.

Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not!

Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits...

I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good!

It's 63 here, I am riding my bike to work, my joints and body feel good, what the hell, I need to "look" for things to complain about. Stupid.
+1,000,000

I'm finding Libertarians are a lot like Democrats...always ticked off about something.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:10 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:55 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
I am down 3.52% for the year at this instant.

Should I be gnashing my teeth? I sure hope not!

Maybe I will start worrying if the loss hit double digits...

I am done worrying about this, and the vaccine, and the lockdowns, and politics. I have taken the blue pill, man, all is good!

It's 63 here, I am riding my bike to work, my joints and body feel good, what the hell, I need to "look" for things to complain about. Stupid.
+1,000,000

I'm finding Libertarians are a lot like Democrats...always ticked off about something.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:11 pm

Renaming the PP to Paper or Plastic since those who hold Gold and TLT are now the bag holders. At least I have stocks to cover the losses. Sad 😢
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:30 pm

Here you go, Mathjak...for when the losses stack up to the point that you have to pawn your drums....


https://youtu.be/iFGasaaWiTo

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:12 am

The worst 30 year time frames , the ones the 4% swr is based on is a retiree retiring in 1907 , 1929 ,1937, 1965/1966

1907 stocks returned 7.77% --

1929 stocks 8.19% - -

1937 stocks 10.12 - -

1966 stocks 10.23

for comparison the 140 year average's were:

stocks 8.39-

Source Michael kitces
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:30 am

Within those 30 year time frames you had decades or longer where stocks returned next to nothing, or declined.
But i'm not going to argue that equities haven't been the centuries winningest asset class in the United States..they have been and you were lucky to catch that wave over one of its best stretches in one of the best countries. 100 years though is a blip on the timeline of human history and therefore these "trends" we cite as gospel are not agnostic enough regarding investing for my taste. For example...how do these charts factor into stock performance? What effect might a change in these trends cause on economic growth? I don't know...but I think there a lot of underlying variables at play that perhaps get overlooked.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:59 am

Like I said if you want to call it lucky for stocks , the pp had a 40 year bull in bonds
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:21 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:59 am
Like I said if you want to call it lucky for stocks , the pp had a 40 year bull in bonds
Sure did.

It's very possible that overall we see greatly reduced growth rates ahead for markets in general. It could be that moving forward one is going to have to actively trade and stock pick in order to generate the returns we were able to get passively.

If someone could explain to me how you get real asset growth numbers in the 4-7% range on the back of a mature economy slated to probably grow long term around 1-1.5% with declining population growth trends and environmental limitations I'm all ears.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:19 am

MJ,

Any thoughts on 4/1?

Everything up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:27 am

Tlt and Gld only down 98k now ... they were close to 130k at one point
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:35 am

amdda01 wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:19 am
MJ,

Any thoughts on 4/1?

Everything up.
April fools?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:18 pm

It looked that way when ii saw Tlt was green
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:41 am

Back to normal, and the slide continues..

Damn I was down to 75k to get back to where I started....however the other model is farther a head then where I started had I not Made the shift so the effect of my change is still well over a 100k difference.

Income model up 2.75 ytd , growth up 8.32 so on the 2.8 million in the pp that gain i gave up is now on top of the 75k loss ..that is a shit load of money so far given up
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:04 am

The later stages of a bubble test ones willpower more than anything else. Up more than 7% in first quarter....we are definitely closing in on euphoria.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:49 pm

I hope I am doing this for a reason is all I can say
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:25 am

Sold half of Gld and moved that half in to iau ....

I wasn’t thrilled about having so much in Gld ....unlike stocks and bonds gold can be lost through lots of means and your are only as covered as the custodians ability to cover the event ..

700k is better split between gld and Iau .

The one thing selling Gld off did though is kill the realized gains I had this year as now the trades I did do on some things equal zero gains on the closed positions as Gld wiped them away .

But the gold losses are now way less in the actively running permanent portfolio since Iau is now up .

So 26k in gains were erased in the closed as 26k in losses wiped them out and brought ytd in closed positions to zero.

So gold is now showing down 5300 overall , Tlt still down 55k
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:16 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:25 am
Sold half of Gld and moved that half in to iau ....

I wasn’t thrilled about having so much in Gld ....unlike stocks and bonds gold can be lost through lots of means and your are only as covered as the custodians ability to cover the event ..

700k is better split between gld and Iau .

The one thing selling Gld off did though is kill the realized gains I had this year as now the trades I did do on some things equal zero gains on the closed positions as Gld wiped them away .

But the gold losses are now way less in the actively running permanent portfolio since Iau is now up .

So 26k in gains were erased in the closed as 26k in losses wiped them out and brought ytd in closed positions to zero.

So gold is now showing down 5300 overall , Tlt still down 55k
Gold losses are less because gold has recovered somewhat, not because you changed investment vehicles, right? I'm not missing something?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:54 am

So entire portfolio about flat for year then...as gains in stocks offset by losses in bonds. Seems like everything functioning fine....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:32 pm

doodle wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:54 am
So entire portfolio about flat for year then...as gains in stocks offset by losses in bonds. Seems like everything functioning fine....
The pp is down ytd ....plus on top of being down it is lacking this years gains my original portfolio has..so the 26k gain had nothing to do with the pp , that came from the bit of fun trading I did
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:37 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:16 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:25 am
Sold half of Gld and moved that half in to iau ....

I wasn’t thrilled about having so much in Gld ....unlike stocks and bonds gold can be lost through lots of means and your are only as covered as the custodians ability to cover the event ..

700k is better split between gld and Iau .

The one thing selling Gld off did though is kill the realized gains I had this year as now the trades I did do on some things equal zero gains on the closed positions as Gld wiped them away .

But the gold losses are now way less in the actively running permanent portfolio since Iau is now up .

So 26k in gains were erased in the closed as 26k in losses wiped them out and brought ytd in closed positions to zero.

So gold is now showing down 5300 overall , Tlt still down 55k
Gold losses are less because gold has recovered somewhat, not because you changed investment vehicles, right? I'm not missing something?
Gold is actually down 26k more than my pp reflects ... since I realized the 26k loss and bought Iau with that portion
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:15 pm

Doesn’t feel as bad when you are offsetting gains and eliminating taxes.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:38 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:15 pm
Doesn’t feel as bad when you are offsetting gains and eliminating taxes.
It was in my ira account so taxes are not a factor yet ....but at the end of the day the pp is still in a hole while everything is up.

I have enough carry over in my taxable account from the closing of our LLC to last us years but I don’t have much in equities in it nor any gold ...only about 20% of all the equities are in the taxable account
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