mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:13 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:10 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm
Oh, another tweak is watching NAV discount and premiums with close ended funds. Can sometimes get way out of whack...that can be a way to squeeze some profits out.

I also like trying to absolutely minimize expense ratios...I think I'm somewhere around .07 for whole portfolio...which is pretty good I think.

All of these can scratch the urge to fiddle itch...
I will take my fidelity contra and blue chip growth funds over any low cost index fund any day ....it has been decades now they have been doing a far better job including those higher expenses. I own vti too but there has been no comparison over most time frames
Then stick with that strategy. I think sticking with something is probably almost the most important. Jumping in and out seems destined for failure. Im comfortable with my little strategies...probably have lost out to you over last few decades..I'm ok with that. Maybe the next few decades will be different. Who knows! Japanese equity investors have had 30 years of flat...
Last edited by doodle on Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:14 pm

While that is true about needing 100% to get back the 50% , retracement has generally been way way easier than hitting the same highs took.
for as long as I have been an investor , 33 years , retracment has not been something that has been an issue WITH EQUITY FUNDS
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:15 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:13 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:10 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm
Oh, another tweak is watching NAV discount and premiums with close ended funds. Can sometimes get way out of whack...that can be a way to squeeze some profits out.

I also like trying to absolutely minimize expense ratios...I think I'm somewhere around .07 for whole portfolio...which is pretty good I think.

All of these can scratch the urge to fiddle itch...
I will take my fidelity contra and blue chip growth funds over any low cost index fund any day ....it has been decades now they have been doing a far better job including those higher expenses. I own vti too but there has been no comparison over most time frames
Then stick with that strategy. I think sticking with something is probably almost the most important. Jumping in and out seems destined for failure. Im comfortable with my little strategies...probably have lost out to you over last few decades..I'm ok with that. Maybe the next few decades will be different. Who knows! Japanese equity investors have had 30 years of flat...
Contra , blue chip growth are always my cores , been that way for decades ..with vti they make up the equity portion of the pp ...there is no jumping in and out of them
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:05 pm
I say if they don’t have the pucker factor then they should hire someone else to handle the job for them ...
Probably a smart idea. But not in my DNA. If I can do something myself, I will rarely pay someone else -- yardwork, car repair, house repairs, appliance repair. And for those we are talking 10s to 100s of dollars of cost per visit/repair.

Telling me I need to pay what, 0.5 to 1.5% of my money year after year to have someone manage it? Logically, I know I would have done better. But I wouldn't have done it. Not when I look at the bottom line number going to the money manager.

In response to the stocks always recover lines, there's always a non-zero chance, just like if the 40 year bond bull is dead, that stocks could go sideways or down for the next 30 years.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:51 pm

I got a feeling this gonna be the theme song for at least a couple weeks...perhaps this thread can morph into a support group...

Welcome to hard times!


https://youtu.be/zvie5df0SP8
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:03 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:05 pm
I say if they don’t have the pucker factor then they should hire someone else to handle the job for them ...
Probably a smart idea. But not in my DNA. If I can do something myself, I will rarely pay someone else -- yardwork, car repair, house repairs, appliance repair. And for those we are talking 10s to 100s of dollars of cost per visit/repair.

Telling me I need to pay what, 0.5 to 1.5% of my money year after year to have someone manage it? Logically, I know I would have done better. But I wouldn't have done it. Not when I look at the bottom line number going to the money manager.

In response to the stocks always recover lines, there's always a non-zero chance, just like if the 40 year bond bull is dead, that stocks could go sideways or down for the next 30 years.
Bad investor behavior hurts so many that even the grand pappy of do it yourself investing , vanguard , concluded that most investors can add up to two to three percent to their returns just letting someone else handle it for them ..especially those with decades to go but have low pucker factor. Those with allocations that are not 100% equities always have had a lot lower balances over an accumulation period that spans decades and they lag by way more than that 2-3% .

Portfolios like the pp or balanced portfolios are FOR AFTER YOU ALREADY MAXIMIZED AND GREW YOUR MONEY .

Investing is only about the odds ..as you see with the pp in rising rates if the odds of the right economic conditions don’t align it gets pounded..we can say the same thing about the pp as you do equities...how do we know stagflation,which is an outcome that sucks for the pp won’t go on for decades ? We don’t and it could happen.

By the same token where is the financial logic when it comes to betting equal amounts of money on anything but equal chances of playing out.

I mean depression? Really ? That has never had the same odds of playing out as stocks rising yet we bet the the same amount on it happening .

Even down turns are typically only one third of the time and markets are up 2/3s .


So those who poo poo stocks rising over a generation and telling youngins to not be 100% diversified equities have always been wrong .

In fact Morningstar data shows the gun shy investors are no more inclined to stay the course in more conservative portfolios as generally they just have lower trigger points to poor investor behavior .

So getting someone else to do a job you can’t do efficiently makes sense.lots of investors according to the vanguard study are their own worst investing enemy and seeking mgmt would leave them way ahead.

Having your money work inefficiently for you while you work for your money isn’t good ...if you owned a business you certainly would seek to maximize profits and if you weren’t good at it you would hire people who are ...
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:46 am, edited 16 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:40 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:51 pm
Welcome to hard times!
Yet another regular day (5th Apr) - Stocks down, bonds down, gold down.
Actually, at the moment from DAX, CAC40, etc. major EU indices there are maybe 10 stocks or so that are a bit over 0% for the day (i.e. on the green side..) all the rest is in the various shades of red...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:16 am

Hey look, stocks are up and GLD/TLT to follow...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:27 am

Both myself and kitces firmly believe that as long term investors trying to mitigate temporary dips is counter productive and has always had zero financial logic to it when the horizon is decades


We play the odds investing and there are no long term accumulation periods ever that didn’t have equites compound investors money the most .

Mentally , investors exhibit all kinds of bad investor behavior and just because they can go more conservative doesn’t mean they should if they need the compounding to grow the bits and pieces they manage to save ..

If one wans to think this time is different and over decades stocks won’t be most efficient at compounding your money then one is free to do whatever they like

My opinion is any portfolio that is designed to mitigate dips should be after one has reached their financial goals and or maximized compounding over their accumulation period and have reasons to be concerned about dips ..but not before
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:31 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:16 am
Hey look, stocks are up and GLD/TLT to follow...
Tlt down, gold down and now stocks headed down , nothing new there
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:51 am

Most of us don’t have very high paying jobs . Rather we manage to save little bits and we need good compounding to take the little bits and grow them in to meaningful sums by retirement.

So many seniors dropped the ball , either by not investing, fearing investing or not effectively investing .... because a small amount of compounding differences over decades can really create huge differences in balances which can be staggering even when we are talking a few percentage points.

So many in retirement forums feared investing in equities at levels they needed to and now they are behind where they hoped to be or need to be .

This is why I am so firmly of the opinion that any allocation that does not allow good strong growth short of being reckless is for after you grew your money to those max levels
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:59 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:03 am
Bad investor behavior hurts so many that even the grand pappy of do it yourself investing , vanguard , concluded that most investors can add up to two to three percent to their returns just letting someone else handle it for them ..especially those with decades to go but have low pucker factor.

In fact Morningstar data shows the gun shy investors are no more inclined to stay the course in more conservative portfolios as generally they just have lower trigger points to poor investor behavior .
...
But we’re all above average investors! 😉
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:00 am

If only that were true ...data shows most investors can’t even get the returns the funds they were in got .

Others go way to conservative and never reach the balances they need by retirement
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:02 am

Is 100% stocks objectively better than the standard PP?

--Depends on the timeframe, right?

--Also heavily depends on the mj "pucker" factor.

I had zero guidance in investing growing up. My parents did not have money to invest. I am able to change that for my kids, hopefully for the better.

My guidance was my own reading, and a friend whose guidance and tips I followed way too much to my detriment.

My dad retired in 1997. He then put some of the cash they got from selling their house into the market, under a decent plan from a relative who is a money manager.

2008/2009 comes along, and literally within 3 days of the bottom in March 2009 he calls me up and says he wants out. No ifs, ands or buts. Me or the manager trying to talk him out of it wasn't going to happen, and at that point there's no doubt that analysts were somewhat starting to say, maybe this could go on longer and you might want to sell some holdings (that's what I recall, I could be mis-remembering).

My emotionality is similar to my dad. Even if my money was managed by someone else, I'd probably be tempted to call them and do things at the wrong times.

The pp has taken emotions out (not completely!) of my investing. That is probably worth at least a few % points.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:15 am

I grew up in an nyc housing project..we were quite low end financially .

But I promised myself I will never raise my own family in one .

So early on I learned all I could about investing once I started working .

At one point I had 3 jobs going on just to have money to invest .

I was an hvac tech in the day . Did side work at night and did gigs as a drummer on weekends .

So I was motivated to grow my money as best as I could .

By 1987 I learned about the fidelity newsletter , threw all my money in the growth model and let it go for decades with just occasional fund swaps along the way .

It grew more money then I ever imagined even with the lost decade for stocks ..it wasn’t until pre retirement that I switched to more conservative models
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:22 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:00 am
data shows most investors can’t even get the returns the funds they were in got .
...
Yep
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:25 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:15 am
I grew up in an nyc housing project..we were quite low end financially .

But I promised myself I will never raise my own family in one .

So early on I learned all I could about investing once I started working .

At one point I had 3 jobs going on just to have money to invest .

I was an hvac tech in the day . Did side work at night and did gigs as a drummer on weekends .

So I was motivated to grow my money as best as I could .

By 1987 I learned about the fidelity newsletter , threw all my money in the growth model and let it go for decades with just occasional fund swaps along the way .

It grew more money then I ever imagined even with the lost decade for stocks ..it wasn’t until pre retirement that I switched to more conservative models
Cool. I wish you were my friend back then instead of the other guy!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:58 am

All I know is if I throw the assets in portfolio visualizer had I used the pp when I started in 1987 the diffference is in the millions compared to the portfolio of plain old fidelity equity funds I used.

Starting with 100k there was a difference over my time frame of the pp growing to 1.1 million compared to 3.1 million just using indexes , my growth model which was managed funds was 4 million.


That includes the lost decade for stocks , wars , the dot com bust , the Great Recession, etc .

Their is a significant difference in potential retirement life style there
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:26 am

For me, the funny thing about this thread is that anyone coming from another forum would see the title and take a look to see what's going on with U.S. stocks. Is this the beginning of sustained slide? Are we on the cusp of a healthy rebound? What's up with the NASDAQ selloff?
They will find nothing about stocks. Nothing. ;D
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:47 am

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:31 am
Fair enough. As long as we're clear that is a MJ investment diary essentially.
For me that is the key and the reason why a more diversified portfolio makes sense. MJ(apanese) would basically be breaking even over that same investment timeframe.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:30 am

My very tiny small (miniature I'd say) 2c - what is the starting date sensitivity of PP compared to 100% US growth stocks (we're talking only US) ? Yes. I know.. Not that I have anything against US stocks, but the paramount importance of being lucky in the first couple of years should not be underestimated too.. And I am always enjoying wise words like "at the end it is long-term investing" ... As I am gonna live hundreds years to survive any turmoils and be 1000% sure that I am not gonna need the money in between.. Can imagine someone that bought at August 2000 peak, if not mistaken - that unlucky guy got break even in 2013 (and for a while in 2007 if not mistaken).. But I am thinking overly simplistic, guess it must be much more complex ;D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:31 pm

doodle wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:47 am
vincent_c wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:31 am
Fair enough. As long as we're clear that is a MJ investment diary essentially.
For me that is the key and the reason why a more diversified portfolio makes sense. MJ(apanese) would basically be breaking even over that same investment timeframe.
First off if I lived in Japan I didn’t have to buy Japanese stocks .

Plus Japan is the poster child for a central bank that made all the wrong choices sending them in to a deflationary spiral .

So if you want to use them as a model for why not to own equities that would have left you quite poor avoiding heavier allocations for decades.

The most expensive words in the English language are still THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:43 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:31 pm
doodle wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:47 am
vincent_c wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:31 am
Fair enough. As long as we're clear that is a MJ investment diary essentially.
For me that is the key and the reason why a more diversified portfolio makes sense. MJ(apanese) would basically be breaking even over that same investment timeframe.
First off if I lived in Japan I didn’t have to buy Japanese stocks .

Plus Japan is the poster child for a central bank that made all the wrong choices sending them in to a deflationary spiral .

So if you want to use them as a model for why not to own equities that would have left you quite poor avoiding heavier allocations for decades
Except if you had invested in a PP in Japan over that time frame you would have been ok. The future is unknowable...you got lucky. Count your blessings


PP_Japan_RP_7%.png
PP_Japan_RP_7%.png (129.82 KiB) Viewed 2028 times

Also, the market has relatively efficiently priced assets according to future probabilities...it will certainly get that wrong. You hold volatile assets that react to various unforseen events. Rebalance and capture.

It's not the only strategy, but it seems to work out alright
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:58 pm

If you have time, go back to the first few profuse months of posting mj had on this forum. You will see we rehash these same arguments over and over and over and over.

O0
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:06 pm

Well the only question is has the pp met its Waterloo and for how long and how bad
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