mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:32 am

Another article on Tlt .

All this negative outlook in the press daily ,and with good reason , I hope leads to the opposite outcome . But fighting the fed is rarely going to work out.

The fed is okay with higher bond rates and higher inflation and that is a tough pill to swallow with Tlt

https://betterbuyandhold.com/bond-etfs- ... ing-rates/
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:52 am

Phew , I just saw Tlt in the early hours , another blood bath.. so far switching portfolios has more than one third of my last last years gains shed which were just under 300k...

My benchmark for how I am doing , my models I switched from has the 25% equity model up 1.78% and the growth model up 6.66%

Vs me being down in the pp about 4% in total ...that is a crap load of difference so far in dollars ..while I do continue to track the differences I have high hopes the pp will flip at some point ....the big a question will be though , can it gain enough back with equities falling as it is down .

It will likely hit down 100k today so that is a lot of dollars to recover if equites fall and tlt and gld have to run with the ball at the same time ..so that is a concern but I already committed to the pp and am in to deep to do anything else but roll the dice on it perking up.

Do I believe it is still the investing panacea it may have been ? No.....I think so much may be given up when we have nothing bad happening that it makes recovery tough when something does happen and you may still be way behind the curve , but time will tell.. these rates and yields have created a whole different investing environment
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:45 am

If it's any consolation I'm in the same boat. I just don't see how this chart can continue much higher without dragging the market down...but there are a lot of irrational and exuberant investors who only know a world where stonks go up.

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:49 am

Not only a world where stocks only go up except for some speed bumps but a world where rates have continued down except for some bumps ...since I have been an investor starting in 1987 I have never known anything but falling rates as a trend.

We have had some years where rates went up but they continued their slide down shortly after
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:59 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:49 am
Not only a world where stocks only go up except for some speed bumps but a world where rates have continued down except for some bumps ...since I have been an investor starting in 1987 I have never known anything but falling rates as a trend.

We had a year or so where rates went up but they continued their slide down
PP has had two solid years back to back with returns greater than 15%..it wouldn't surprise me if it takes a breather with a flat or slightly down year while the assets prime themselves for a sharp movement in one direction or another. The speed at which the market whipsaws these days suggests to me that it is prudent to tighten rebalance bands down to at least 20/30 vs the original 15/35. I have been selling winning assets down to 20% when they start approaching 30%. I luckily hit the rebalance on the money with bonds and stocks back during covid crash. My stocks hit close to 30% and I sold down to twenty percent around the 3900 level and I've started buying back into long bonds when the ten year hit the 1.32 level. I'm feeling a bit of pain as yields grind higher but I'm reassured by the extreme chart movements on both stocks and bonds that we are going to have a short term mean reversion here at some point...of course, that timeline could take many months...not the weeks we would like to see. Best to put things on ignore and keep the faith. It might not be the winningest strategy but with the PP horrible years still won't be catastrophic.
Last edited by doodle on Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:02 am

I hope ..I gave up a pretty decent portfolio to go into the pp to protect last years excellent gains ..but so far the reverse is happening and the hole I have to climb out of when Tlt and or Gld get their turn in the sun is just getting deeper and deeper
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:04 am

Everyone and their mother is waiting for a correction in stocks to stabilize yields.

One thing I’ve learned over and over with the PP is when the crisis fails to materialize rates will begin to rise. It’s a good idea to limp into LTT’s as I believe they will fall before rising if/when stocks decline.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:14 am

That is my thought ..but the question still remains ,without equities can it climb out of the hole when Gld or Tlt have their day in the sun ...every day has been pulling us deeper in a hole ...I need about 8% in returns to just equal had I not made the switch up to yesterday.

My reference portfolio i was in was about 30% -35% equities in total . Closer to 30% now. But the bond side was relatively interest rate insensitive in comparison
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:17 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:14 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:04 am
Everyone and their mother is waiting for a correction in stocks to stabilize yields.

One thing I’ve learned over and over with the PP is when the crisis fails to materialize rates will begin to rise. It’s a good idea to limp into LTT’s as I believe they will fall before rising if/when stocks decline.
Ultimately no one knows how this is all going to turn out...turning to the experts is no help either as they have shown themselves to be equally clueless. Ive been in the portfolio for about 12 years now and there were a few years there that were mighty tough to keep the faith. I've been listening to the inflation crowd poo poo treasuries since the ten year hit around 4 percent. Then I think to covid crash and how that plummet in rates made for quite a return...especially out of my zeros.

Has the PP been as rewarding as a 100% stock portfolio during the longest bull market in history? Of course not, but that's not why I chose it. I wanted something that would protect me against an unforseeable future. To me it has the best shot of anything I've seen out there of doing that.

You have equally qualified experts out there making equally strong cases for inflation, deflation, prosperity and tightening money. I have no idea who to believe and honestly there are so many moving variables it's anyone's best guess which way this turns out.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:21 am

The thing is your timing to enter PP, MJ, was probably close to the worst possible (for PP). I do not feel happy, too .. I guess nobody normal would do :) Last year I had several days where I got plenty of white hair on my head for massive gains and now as almost everything is in PP, it just keeps bleeding hard earned money. But as doodle stated previous year's PP performance was really impressive and abnormal, so time to return back some of the profits ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am

People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics. 2019 and 2020 were two of the better years ever for the PP. You can almost go to the bank on it not doing all that well for the next couple of years, at which point it will probably do quite well again.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:39 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics. 2019 and 2020 were two of the better years ever for the PP. You can almost go to the bank on it not doing all that well for the next couple of years, at which point it will probably do quite well again.
Yeah, that's my feeling as well...but what's the alternative? Day trade and stay glued to markets everyday for next few years? Everyone has different interests but I value my time more than that...besides, there is no guarantee that would work out either.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:50 am

Stocks down, gold and LTT’s down.
Nothing catches a bid unless stocks are up.
In TLT for another trade...
Last edited by buddtholomew on Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 am

Ten year note is paying 1.49%
Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics
...
I try to visualize this thread/conversation occurring in valley between two peaks on a graph of pp performance.
Remember the chatter when gold was at like 1100-1200$ / ounce?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:01 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:50 am
Stocks down, gold and LTT’s down.
Nothing catches a bid unless stocks are up.
In TLT for another trade...
I think Tom and I picked cash as winning asset for 2021...I'm still holding to that...by winning that might mean losing the least
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:20 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 am
Ten year note is paying 1.49%
Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics
...
I try to visualize this thread/conversation occurring in valley between two peaks on a graph of pp performance.
Remember the chatter when gold was at like 1100-1200$ / ounce?
Yeah of course. Gold was going to go to what, sub $1000? $600 and $400 in some circles. Scaring the crap out of me.

I think personally I am sticking to my guns, with a little bit of doodle's advice of probably doing a bit more rebalancing when needed, which I have been.

Since 2014, here's my yearly returns. Down 1.3% now? Not a big deal. Has become a lot more $-wise since 2014 for sure, but now I basically say to myself, what else, really could I do? Nothing else would make sense. Sure, you can tweak percents here and there, but whatever.

2014 4.04%
2015 -3.26%
2016 6.17%
2017 12.97%
2018 -4.09%
2019 18.66%
2020 20.07%
2021 -1.27%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:34 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:20 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 am
Ten year note is paying 1.49%
Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics
...
I try to visualize this thread/conversation occurring in valley between two peaks on a graph of pp performance.
Remember the chatter when gold was at like 1100-1200$ / ounce?
Yeah of course. Gold was going to go to what, sub $1000? $600 and $400 in some circles. Scaring the crap out of me.

I think personally I am sticking to my guns, with a little bit of doodle's advice of probably doing a bit more rebalancing when needed, which I have been.

Since 2014, here's my yearly returns. Down 1.3% now? Not a big deal. Has become a lot more $-wise since 2014 for sure, but now I basically say to myself, what else, really could I do? Nothing else would make sense. Sure, you can tweak percents here and there, but whatever.

2014 4.04%
2015 -3.26%
2016 6.17%
2017 12.97%
2018 -4.09%
2019 18.66%
2020 20.07%
2021 -1.27%
The only other option that sways me at this point is the golden butterfly with an emerging market value component as opposed to the traditinal US small cap value. If we get a massive market correction in stocks I might make a move into that allocation...for now I'm staying US based with trad portfolio keeping stocks underweight at 20% and slowly buying back into bonds to bring back up to 25% if yields keep rising
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:40 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:34 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:20 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 am
Ten year note is paying 1.49%
Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics
...
I try to visualize this thread/conversation occurring in valley between two peaks on a graph of pp performance.
Remember the chatter when gold was at like 1100-1200$ / ounce?
Yeah of course. Gold was going to go to what, sub $1000? $600 and $400 in some circles. Scaring the crap out of me.

I think personally I am sticking to my guns, with a little bit of doodle's advice of probably doing a bit more rebalancing when needed, which I have been.

Since 2014, here's my yearly returns. Down 1.3% now? Not a big deal. Has become a lot more $-wise since 2014 for sure, but now I basically say to myself, what else, really could I do? Nothing else would make sense. Sure, you can tweak percents here and there, but whatever.

2014 4.04%
2015 -3.26%
2016 6.17%
2017 12.97%
2018 -4.09%
2019 18.66%
2020 20.07%
2021 -1.27%
The only other option that sways me at this point is the golden butterfly with an emerging market value component as opposed to the traditinal US small cap value. If we get a massive market correction in stocks I might make a move into that allocation...for now I'm staying US based.
As I've mentioned before I have already been a "Corto" variant of the PP for a few years, with this allocation. I've been happy with it and it has at least allowed me to do a tiny bit of profit capturing in silver over the years.

LT Bonds 24.0%
Total Market% 22.0%
All World ex-US 4.0%
SmCapVal 4.0%
Cash 16.0%
Gold 25.0%
Silver 5.0%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:49 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:40 am
doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:34 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:20 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:51 am
Ten year note is paying 1.49%
Kbg wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:18 am
People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics
...
I try to visualize this thread/conversation occurring in valley between two peaks on a graph of pp performance.
Remember the chatter when gold was at like 1100-1200$ / ounce?
Yeah of course. Gold was going to go to what, sub $1000? $600 and $400 in some circles. Scaring the crap out of me.

I think personally I am sticking to my guns, with a little bit of doodle's advice of probably doing a bit more rebalancing when needed, which I have been.

Since 2014, here's my yearly returns. Down 1.3% now? Not a big deal. Has become a lot more $-wise since 2014 for sure, but now I basically say to myself, what else, really could I do? Nothing else would make sense. Sure, you can tweak percents here and there, but whatever.

2014 4.04%
2015 -3.26%
2016 6.17%
2017 12.97%
2018 -4.09%
2019 18.66%
2020 20.07%
2021 -1.27%
The only other option that sways me at this point is the golden butterfly with an emerging market value component as opposed to the traditinal US small cap value. If we get a massive market correction in stocks I might make a move into that allocation...for now I'm staying US based.
As I've mentioned before I have already been a "Corto" variant of the PP for a few years, with this allocation. I've been happy with it and it has at least allowed me to do a tiny bit of profit capturing in silver over the years.

LT Bonds 24.0%
Total Market% 22.0%
All World ex-US 4.0%
SmCapVal 4.0%
Cash 16.0%
Gold 25.0%
Silver 5.0%
I think Harry's initial portfolio was a bit more diversified like that with silver and swiss francs and what not...eventually I guess simplicity won out.

I think simply having a diversified asset allocation and a plan that you stick by through thick and thin is almost more important than the details. To keep myself occupied when I get antsy I will usually work on cost saving measures trying to minimize expense ratios and streamline things. That sort of fufills my need to fiddle.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:12 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:49 am
I think Harry's initial portfolio was a bit more diversified like that with silver and swiss francs and what not...eventually I guess simplicity won out.
Browne decided that gold was doing the job and that silver, with its mainly industrial value, didn't belong.
Anyone remember why he jettisoned the Swiss franc?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:20 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:12 am
doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:49 am
I think Harry's initial portfolio was a bit more diversified like that with silver and swiss francs and what not...eventually I guess simplicity won out.
Browne decided that gold was doing the job and that silver, with its mainly industrial value, didn't belong.
Anyone remember why he jettisoned the Swiss franc?
Wasn't there some legislation that complicated swiss bank accounts for american citizens?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:20 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:12 am
doodle wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:49 am
I think Harry's initial portfolio was a bit more diversified like that with silver and swiss francs and what not...eventually I guess simplicity won out.
Browne decided that gold was doing the job and that silver, with its mainly industrial value, didn't belong.
Anyone remember why he jettisoned the Swiss franc?
Wasn't there some legislation that complicated swiss bank accounts for american citizens?
The US government put a stop to Americans holding Swiss accounts anonymously, those infamous numbered accounts that corrupt despots love. The Swiss decided it wasn't worth their time to have American customers. I don't know if that's still the case.

But, you could still buy Swiss francs. I had the etf for a short while in my vp. Technovelist owns, or owned until pretty recently, some kind of Swiss instrument. I want to say it had the word depository in it. Certificate?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:47 pm

As investors prior returns are water under the bridge ....whatever those return were is the amount we invest each day at the ring of the bell ...as I pointed out earlier each day is just another day in the life of your portfolio..

If you are down 10k today you are down 10k whether you have been investing 30 years or just started ...each day we hope to make money and each day we get a new balance ...each day that valance IS OUR PRINCIPAL IN EFFECT .that is all our own money .


As investors Most of us swap out assets from time to time in different segments ...that does not mean that the clock stops ticking ...

No , rather it means if subsequently you are down , all we do is hope things change and the down assets get a day in the sun but that may never happen in our lifetime .

So saying it is a bad time to put money in to something or you didn’t give the investment more time really is irrelevant since you may have been investing for decades and any changes are just on on going work in progress ...

The fact the pp was up 15% last year is irrelevant, my growth model was up 32% and the income model 11% .

Me being in the pp last year , or in the model I used becomes irrelevant when the bell rings ..

If next stop is down 100k less in any investment, then you are down 100k whether you came from another portfolio model or from the pp, it is all one continuous balance daily.

Plus if you have a benchmark you compare to you know how you are doing ..in my case the returns are tracked in what I gave up for the pp ..until the assets in the pp perform it is a lagging choice for me..
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:14 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:47 pm
As investors prior returns are water under the bridge ....whatever those return were is the amount we invest each day at the ring of the bell ...as I pointed out earlier each day is just another day in the life of your portfolio..

If you are down 10k today you are down 10k whether you have been investing 30 years or just started ...each day we hope to make money and each day we get a new balance ...


As investors Most of us swap out assets from time to time in different segments ...that does not mean that the clock stops ticking ...

No , rather it means if subsequently you are down , all we do is hope things change and the down assets get a day in the sun but that may never happen in our lifetime .

So saying it is a bad time to put money in to something or you didn’t give the investment more time really is irrelevant since you have lots of gains that make up that balance as an investor year after year, it may have just been in other assets ...

The fact the pp was up 15% last year is irrelevant, as an example my growth model was up 32% and the income model 11% .

Me being in the pp last year , or in my model becomes irrelevant when the next stop is 100k less from any investment you make pp or not, it is all one continuous balance daily.

Plus if you have a benchmark you compare to you know how you are doing ..in my case the returns are tracked in what I gave up for the pp ..until the assets in the pp perform it is a lagging choice for me..
One of Browne's central ideas was that the PP was for preserving the money that you "earn" through a job.

Looking at the PP over a long term horizon shows that it is very good at preserving money.

If you are looking for a full time job of actively trading money well, then maybe you will be able to "earn" more by beating the market. However, that is easier said than done. Being a genius trader in a 12 year long bull market has convinced many people today that they can make a living trading...same as it did back in the late 90s. That won't last forever.

It sounds like you want a full time job as an active trader.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:23 pm

It's also important to remember that this comes with a cost...if you are ok with wild swings late into retirement then the PP might not be what you are looking for.
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