mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:09 am
i still have my copy of best laid ... i have it decades . i don't use the pp all the time .. i tend to use it as my variable portfolio taking profits in gold and tlt as they do their rise and fall . been washing and repeating for 30 years now ..

my main portfolio is a core of fidelity funds that change dynamically over time as the big picture changes . it has had excellent results in the 30 plus years i have been doing it .

i sold tlt and gld last week in the nice run up ... it has been sliding back down and perhaps if tlt falls enough today i will add it back ... these 1 to 2% moves at a time generate a lot of money for me each year . there is always something that sends those two up or down very quickly . unlike equities which i tend to sit with , tlt and gld tend to be more about timing the market than time in the market so i like to trade them .

but the book is still an all time favorite ... i sold my craigs book back to amazon but i always kept best laid plans and fail safe investing like they are a collectible .
well back in today after todays big sell off of tlt and gld ..i only sold out a day after the fed announcement a week ago . what a big difference ... well waiting for that next tweet to drive tlt and gld back up
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:52 pm

mathjak, don't take this as harrassment, and don't run off like pmward, but shouldn't you just make a vp thread called mathjak's daytrading adventures?
Looking at gold's price yo-yoing lately, I'm tempted to do the same, although I'm getting rid of my paper/electronic gold altogether.
I'll read your thread with interest.

But putting these shenanigans in 'Read the Permanent Portfolio Bible?' is like letting your dog pee on someone's front stoop. :P
RIP Paul Volcker
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:20 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:52 pm
mathjak, don't take this as harrassment, and don't run off like pmward, but shouldn't you just make a vp thread called mathjak's daytrading adventures?
661091e516fa35669278bd69f3369bcc.jpg
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:05 pm

LOL!!
Thanks, man. O0
RIP Paul Volcker
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pugchief » Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:49 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:52 pm
But putting these shenanigans in 'Read the Permanent Portfolio Bible?' is like letting your dog pee poop on someone's front stoop. :P
fixed that for you.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:14 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:09 am
i still have my copy of best laid ... i have it decades . i don't use the pp all the time .. i tend to use it as my variable portfolio taking profits in gold and tlt as they do their rise and fall . been washing and repeating for 30 years now ..

my main portfolio is a core of fidelity funds that change dynamically over time as the big picture changes . it has had excellent results in the 30 plus years i have been doing it .

i sold tlt and gld last week in the nice run up ... it has been sliding back down and perhaps if tlt falls enough today i will add it back ... these 1 to 2% moves at a time generate a lot of money for me each year . there is always something that sends those two up or down very quickly . unlike equities which i tend to sit with , tlt and gld tend to be more about timing the market than time in the market so i like to trade them .

but the book is still an all time favorite ... i sold my craigs book back to amazon but i always kept best laid plans and fail safe investing like they are a collectible .
well back in today after todays big sell off of tlt and gld ..i only sold out a day after the fed announcement a week ago . what a big difference ... well waiting for that next tweet to drive tlt and gld back up
mj, of course you've never gotten burned in these trades, right? You just wait them out? What's the longest you held a losing trade? Or are you so good at timing you never really have to wait?

I am asking sarcastically, but would like to know. It sounds like you should make a newsletter ... ;D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:44 am

actually no , the gold and tlt trades have always worked out fine ... if it moves against me i hold it . so far there is always an opportunity to sell in a spike ...sometimes it may take a few months .


as far as my other quick trades go iif i am wrong i a'm out immediately . i will take a shot when a stock misses earnings and gets beat up. if it does not bounce back next day or so i am out . so losses are very small. sometimes it will dip and i will wait a day and it comes back to near even and i am out , right or wrong ... but gold and tlt i don't sell at a loss . if yesterdays buy stays down , then i guess i am a pp user for life ha ha ha . but usually there is always an event that will spike it even if for a day .


so far i have around 230k in total gains this year including my newsletter portfolio which does not get traded except for occasional fund swaps ..

so , here is my fidelity closed out position statement .

here , you can see my closed trades . you can see gld by far was my biggest money maker and i have very few losses . i had about 25 trades in gld and tlt .

so as of yesterday i am in gld and tlt ... i use the newsletter sector portfolio ,voo and vti as the equity portion of the pp which i don't trade much . i have so much in voo in gains that to sell it at this point tax wise it would be a killer . so i likely will just pass it to the kids one day when i am gone .

So over 70k in quick gains and less than 800 bucks in losses.. vz owed me a 245 dollar dividend so the loss was less

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:52 am

mj, I am glad you show up every now and then to do this.

Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.

There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.

But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!

So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:47 am

XaN I am having trouble replying to my own thread , if you can fix it .

I am buying the rest of my position this morning so hopefully I won’t have to wait to long .. I only go for 2% pops at a time.but I use a few hundred thousand in each position at times averaging down . I don’t mind holding if something does not work out so I treat it not like a speculation but an actual investment position....

Wash and repeat ..that way even a down trend gives me enough time to hit a spike up ...heck for 30 years I have been doing this ... I never realized I really made the pp my variable portfolio until I thought about it the other day ... kind of funny in a way ..but it has been working a long time now
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:59 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by stuper1 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:48 am

If it's so easy to do, why isn't everyone doing it?

If it's not easy, then someone is bragging. Not saying that bragging is bad. I like to brag too when I'm good at something.

Nevertheless, I'm glad this thread finally got started so I know where to go when I want to read this stuff instead of just finding it randomly in almost any other thread.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pugchief » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:59 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:52 am
mj, I am glad you show up every now and then to do this.

Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.

There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.

But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!

So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
Corto, you have Jan 1 just around the corner. Why don't we (you) play a game where you paper trade TLT and GLD throughout 2020 and see if you can turn a profit? I used to have a broker that allowed a fake paper trading account along side the real one; not sure if that is still available with your broker, otherwise you can just use a spreadsheet. You can keep us current in this thread or start another. I'm curious to see if anyone other than MJ can do it. My experience was always like yours: way more losers than winners.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:58 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:59 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 7:52 am
mj, I am glad you show up every now and then to do this.

Because it makes me remember for 20 years I tried this...I would work with a buddy who was as lucky/good as timing as you, and follow his lead. But through very small timing differences (hours to days) he would almost always make a profit, and I would almost always make a loss, or get stuck in a position long term hoping to break even. There were almost no exceptions to this. my problem is I hit it big with the first two stocks I ever traded (big in the 2-3 zeros sense, I was just out of school) and I thought I could do it.

There is still a *tiny* little part of my brain that thinks I can and should do this, but it gets smaller every day. Just got a little smaller after reading your posts.

But I can guarantee you that if we were both given 100k on Jan 1 to trade GLD exclusively, on Dec 31 you'd be up, and I'd be either down, or locked into a losing position for months/years!

So GLD will be down again today, will be interesting to see how long you need to hold.
Corto, you have Jan 1 just around the corner. Why don't we (you) play a game where you paper trade TLT and GLD throughout 2020 and see if you can turn a profit? I used to have a broker that allowed a fake paper trading account along side the real one; not sure if that is still available with your broker, otherwise you can just use a spreadsheet. You can keep us current in this thread or start another. I'm curious to see if anyone other than MJ can do it. My experience was always like yours: way more losers than winners.
It wouldn't be the same. I paper traded different strategies in the past --- successfully most of the time. When I turned them into real trading, emotions took over. I could not help that, and I am sure it would happen again.

I think it takes a very specific mentality to do this where if you can disconnect your emotions, you can be successful. That is the biggest reason the pp works for me.

Now in my early 50s, with a decent nest egg, there's no way in hell I would trade anything of any significance this way. When I would make these trades, most were in the $500-$10,000 range. mj talking about hundreds of k on this type of trading, I'd have a freaking heart attack.
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