Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

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ochotona
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Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by ochotona » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:46 pm

It does much better than you think - if you sell when they're not at all time times!

https://allocatesmartly.com/buying-glob ... ime-highs/
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:16 am

We may not have a recession for another year or more. I'm sticking with my allocation.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:17 pm

Paul Novell weighs in on the same topic

https://investingforaliving.us/2019/11/ ... the-highs/
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:16 am
We may not have a recession for another year or more. I'm sticking with my allocation.
Me too. I think there's a lot of recession talk that may not be warranted. I'm invested, but cautiously.
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am

keep in mind , every day we are effectively buying in to our assets ... everyday the markets open we are committing our money back in to play .

there is noooooooooo difference selling , closing out your positions each day and rebuying at the open vs keeping the same money in play over night hypothetically .

so if you would not buy any of the assets because the prices are to high you better rethink the fact that in effect you are buying in daily whether we think of it that way or not.

on the other hand , we may choose to hold some cash like we would a stock option and take a shot at waiting for a dip , but that is not the same thing as this is speculating ...you still have those waiting since 2008 who missed 300-400% in gains . they can never make that up .

we all tend to believe our own bull-shit many times , like gains and losses are only on paper because i didn't sell or i am playing with something called the houses money because i am up or i am not going to spend principal .


news flash---it is all your money -period --- at any point in time that is the assets value and the money is all yours for the taking .. we just choose to keep the money in play hoping in the future the asset is worth more . but to think anything changes if we sell at night and put the money back in to an investment in the morning is somehow different than keeping the money in play overnight is mental masturbation .

somehow we convince ourselves it is okay to keep our old money and likely the biggest chunk of our money in the investments , effectively buying in each day again , yet we think they are to high to risk putting new money in and likely the smallest piece in .

when you think this logic through our action almost seem silly .
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:19 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am

there is noooooooooo difference selling , closing out your positions each day and rebuying at the open vs keeping the same money in play over night hypothetically .


I can think of one difference off the top of my head. If the market opens down 300 pts, you’ve missed out on a crash. If it opens up 300 pts, you’ve missed out on a gain. If you are out of enough of those significant morning opens, your portfolio total will look very different from someone who buys and holds.

#2: Taxes. You can generate a big tax bill for yourself day trading and still lose it all afterwards.

Of course holding is akin to buying, but there are significant differences between holding stocks and daytrading them.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:47 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:19 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am

there is noooooooooo difference selling , closing out your positions each day and rebuying at the open vs keeping the same money in play over night hypothetically .


I can think of one difference off the top of my head. If the market opens down 300 pts, you’ve missed out on a crash. If it opens up 300 pts, you’ve missed out on a gain. If you are out of enough of those significant morning opens, your portfolio total will look very different from someone who buys and holds.

#2: Taxes. You can generate a big tax bill for yourself day trading and still lose it all afterwards.

Of course holding is akin to buying, but there are significant differences between holding stocks and daytrading them.
the price is not the point i am trying to make , of course prices can vary ... ...

but there really is no difference .. it is all our money and it is our value at any point in time , so committing our money each day whether old or new is still going in to assets you think are priced to high . it is no more or less your money whether you keep it in play or sell and buy something else or even the same thing each day.

the investment is either a good long term idea or it isn't at any point in time .
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:36 am

Your point is valid to an extent in that holding is akin to buying. As ochotona has mentioned in the past, the Endowment effect and other illusions are powerful.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:12 am

we really do not know what markets will do , nor do we really know what is high or low ..
back in 1982 p/e's doubled ... markets were judged to be at insane prices after p/e's doubled .... who knew the greatest bull market in history was getting ready to start from those levels .

so yeah we can try to speculate and time things waiting for a drop , but that is different then leaving all our money in a portfolio and saying i don't want to add a few bucks more in comparison because asset prices are to high .... in effect we are reinvesting that money every day at those prices and that represents a whole lot more . so that is all i am saying. our brains tend to hand us faulty logic when it comes to our money .
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:34 am

From the OP, my belief in holding on albeit with a set allocation is reaffirmed.
I know what you're saying, too, but I'm not sure what I'm supposed to do with that information. ???

EDIT: per your EDIT
so that is all i am saying. our brains tend to hand us faulty logic when it comes to our money .
Quite true.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by vnatale » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:58 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:59 am
keep in mind , every day we are effectively buying in to our assets ... everyday the markets open we are committing our money back in to play .

there is noooooooooo difference selling , closing out your positions each day and rebuying at the open vs keeping the same money in play over night hypothetically .

so if you would not buy any of the assets because the prices are to high you better rethink the fact that in effect you are buying in daily whether we think of it that way or not.

on the other hand , we may choose to hold some cash like we would a stock option and take a shot at waiting for a dip , but that is not the same thing as this is speculating ...you still have those waiting since 2008 who missed 300-400% in gains . they can never make that up .

we all tend to believe our own bull-shit many times , like gains and losses are only on paper because i didn't sell or i am playing with something called the houses money because i am up or i am not going to spend principal .


news flash---it is all your money -period --- at any point in time that is the assets value and the money is all yours for the taking .. we just choose to keep the money in play hoping in the future the asset is worth more . but to think anything changes if we sell at night and put the money back in to an investment in the morning is somehow different than keeping the money in play overnight is mental masturbation .

somehow we convince ourselves it is okay to keep our old money and likely the biggest chunk of our money in the investments , effectively buying in each day again , yet we think they are to high to risk putting new money in and likely the smallest piece in .

when you think this logic through our action almost seem silly .
Have always totally agreed with your first sentence.

Vinny
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ochotona
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Re: Buy Stocks at All Time Highs

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:17 am

Every day spent with a wife beater is like saying "I Do" all over again... TLT
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