BTC in the PP

[ochotona]

Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 20%
Gold: 20%
Cash: 20%
Bitcoin: 15%

15% wow that's heavy. FWIW I will start buying BTC again at lower prices, maybe $10k (where I bought it before, and rode to up to ATH, then sold at $22.5k).

[Smith1776]

Just added to my Bitcoin VP stash today.

[Smith1776]

Fidelity is now including Bitcoin as part of the default allocation in their all-in-one ETFs. Interesting development.

05E6E6F4-D094-497A-B689-6EC56ADFD3A7.jpeg (216.32 KiB) Viewed 25523 times

[Smith1776]

Canada has a multi-cryptocurrency ETF that weights constituents based on market cap.

https://evolveetfs.com/product/etc/

I've started using this in my registered accounts.

[Jack Jones]

My thoughts on this have evolved a bit. There are different roles to play in the Bitcoin space. They include miners, speculators, true-believers, capitalists. These roles are not mutually exclusive; you can play multiple at the same time.

I am a capitalist and true-believer: I have wealth to allocate, and I want Bitcoin to succeed for the good of humanity.

On the capitalist side: I think there is great potential here, but also great risk. I don't want to be 100% all in, but I want some chips on the table for this asymmetric bet. What good can a capitalist do for the network? I think they can reduce volatility by dollar cost averaging during quiet/bear markets, and selling during mania.

On the true-believer side:
I'm willing to tithe some money to this cause even if I'm totally wrong and it is eventually worth nothing.

All of this isn't very relevant to the PP. I do still harbor some worries that the gold in my PP will lose its monetary premium over time, but the BTC in my VP insures me from this possibility.

[dualstow]

Very creative definition of tithe

[Jack Jones]

Very creative definition of tithe

Seems appropriate:

A portion of one's annual income contributed voluntarily or due as a tax, especially a contribution of one tenth of one's income for the support of the clergy or church.

Unrelated. I was wondering why the feds are so concerned about cryptocurrencies causing instability to the financial system.

Crypto-asset activities could pose risks to the stability of the U.S. financial system if
their interconnections with the traditional financial system or their overall scale were
to grow without adherence to or being paired with appropriate regulation, including
enforcement of the existing regulatory structure.11

Fortunately, they state what they're afraid of: It becoming too big (competing w/ USD hedgemony). If the traditional financial system were stable to begin with, it wouldn't be at risk by being interconnected to a smaller, less stable system.

Why aren't they afraid of gold in this way? Because gold is not a financial system. Gold cannot move money around. People must move gold around. Thus at their extremes, the network effect of Bitcoin will be stronger than that of gold, and thus warrants more concern.

I also enjoyed how they made this too an issue of identity politics:

Many everyday investors who trusted cryptocurrency companies—including young people and people of color—suffered serious losses, but, thankfully, turmoil in the cryptocurrency markets has had little negative impact on the broader financial system to date.

[seajay]

Here in the UK we're starting to see 'investigations' down to even relatively small amounts. Banks are obligated to flag 'suspicious' activities where that isn't clearly defined, but where if banks are identified as having partaken of moving 'illegal' money they could land in hot water, so as ever when there's ambiguity banks tend to side with caution. They're not supposed to alert individuals that a investigation flag has been waved and await a response or keep the transaction (or account) frozen until either a clearance is returned, or some time passes without any response when the transaction/account can be unfrozen.

Frankly, a mess. That along with street cameras, movement tracking and now financial tracking is making the country more of a Open Prison along with a guilty until proven innocent society assumption.

Know little about bitcoin, but it appears to me that as the Pound/UK financial system moves ever closer to being non-fungible that alternatives will rise to favour. A simple app that maintained short bitcoin to however many you held, negates its price volatility. Only requires common acceptance as a rising alternative to the regular financial system/currency (and the capacity to deal with high/fast volumes of transactions).

No doubt the UK state will try to counter that, such as its already doing in making any conversions between Pounds and bitcoin being flagged/investigated. However the harder that becomes and potentially the more the pendulum is inclined to swing away from regular currency/financial systems. Presently even regular gold coin purchases more often have the transaction frozen pending investigation, apparently one way to reduce that is to not specify 'coin' in the transaction description. I suspect as hard as they may push a BritCoin/Central Bank Digital Currency the less inclined it will be commonly accepted/used. Just too much state intervention/control. Such a largescale swing away from highly controlled could be large and fast, and once established as being seen as 'old school domestic currency/financial systems' - where would that leave the state and regular financial systems. Treat everyone as though guilty by default, and the tendency is to act criminally.

[yankees60]

I heard during the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) that the Biden family was cited with 150 Suspicious Activity Reports, which banks do to report something that can potentially be criminal.

But after I passed that on to a friend he sent back something from the Washington Post which cited that as being three Pinnochio's.

[seajay]

I could understand however if it became a simple common bank policy of 'flag all transactions' - so that they remained within the law, had reported all transactions that might subsequently have been identified as having been fraud/laundering. Which a state with the capacity to handle such 'big data' might relish ... central state seeing all financial transactions everywhere, using street cams/facial/car-plate recognition to monitor movements, and phone activities to get inside your head.

[yankees60]

I could understand however if it became a simple common bank policy of 'flag all transactions' - so that they remained within the law, had reported all transactions that might subsequently have been identified as having been fraud/laundering. Which a state with the capacity to handle such 'big data' might relish ... central state seeing all financial transactions everywhere, using street cams/facial/car-plate recognition to monitor movements, and phone activities to get inside your head.

Here is what those particular reports are:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/su ... 0in%201996.

[Jack Jones]

Here in the UK we're starting to see 'investigations' down to even relatively small amounts. Banks are obligated to flag 'suspicious' activities where that isn't clearly defined, but where if banks are identified as having partaken of moving 'illegal' money they could land in hot water, so as ever when there's ambiguity banks tend to side with caution. They're not supposed to alert individuals that a investigation flag has been waved and await a response or keep the transaction (or account) frozen until either a clearance is returned, or some time passes without any response when the transaction/account can be unfrozen.

Frankly, a mess. That along with street cameras, movement tracking and now financial tracking is making the country more of a Open Prison along with a guilty until proven innocent society assumption.

Know little about bitcoin, but it appears to me that as the Pound/UK financial system moves ever closer to being non-fungible that alternatives will rise to favour. A simple app that maintained short bitcoin to however many you held, negates its price volatility. Only requires common acceptance as a rising alternative to the regular financial system/currency (and the capacity to deal with high/fast volumes of transactions).

No doubt the UK state will try to counter that, such as its already doing in making any conversions between Pounds and bitcoin being flagged/investigated. However the harder that becomes and potentially the more the pendulum is inclined to swing away from regular currency/financial systems. Presently even regular gold coin purchases more often have the transaction frozen pending investigation, apparently one way to reduce that is to not specify 'coin' in the transaction description. I suspect as hard as they may push a BritCoin/Central Bank Digital Currency the less inclined it will be commonly accepted/used. Just too much state intervention/control. Such a largescale swing away from highly controlled could be large and fast, and once established as being seen as 'old school domestic currency/financial systems' - where would that leave the state and regular financial systems. Treat everyone as though guilty by default, and the tendency is to act criminally.

You are my favorite Bitcoin skeptic on the forum. So, I appreciate this post!

Reminds me of Rule 13:

Keep Some Assets Outside Your Own Country

Interestingly, I'd say self-custodied Bitcoin satisfies this rule. You can pick up and leave your country w/out anyone knowing you are bringing Bitcoin with you.

In this time of financial oppression, we're blessed to have an escape-hatch to the dominant system. Someone with incredible foresight cared enough about humanity to birth it, and then walked away from the riches that were due to them when it succeeded!

The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks

[Smith1776]

This violent upward move in Bitcoin over just the past day or two was enough to hit a rebalancing band for me. Dang. Talk about volatile.

[Jack Jones]

This violent upward move in Bitcoin over just the past day or two was enough to hit a rebalancing band for me. Dang. Talk about volatile.

As Operation Choke Point 2.0 is underway (1.0 was an Obama-era program) w/ the goal of unbanking the crypto sector, you can expect more volatility.

I believe this is the similar to Executive Order 6102. The debt burden has grown too large, and they need the populace to swallow it by accepting interest rates lower than inflation. This is called Financial Repression. To accomplish it, they need to close the exits from the system.

[Smith1776]

What is yours guys’ preferred method for buying Bitcoin for long-term holdings where you are also trying to maintain reasonable anonymity?

Do most of you folks not care and just buy from an exchange? Do you use your credit card?

The spreads are huge for cash-based ATMs.

[dualstow]

I’d like to know the answer to that, too. I’ve only received, never bought.
I moved to Bread per Bitcoin_in_the_VP’s advice and that got migrated to what’s it called. CoinBase. I guess I’d use them.

[Xan]

Aren't Bitcoin and anonymity completely at odds with each other?

[Smith1776]

Aren't Bitcoin and anonymity completely at odds with each other?

It’s not anonymous, but there’s definitely better and worse ways for creating associations between addresses and identities.

[whatchamacallit]

Just make your own Blockchain and then sell it at the flea market with a free t shirt advertising it.

https://medium.com/swlh/is-it-hard-to-b ... 62e9b873b7

[Jack Jones]

I use Bisq. It is a decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange. There are different payment methods, but I choose to send USPS money orders to strangers in exchange for Bitcoin. They never know my name or address, and neither does the post office since I pay in cash.

I've made maybe 20-30 purchases like this, ranging from $400-$2000. There was one hiccup where my money order seemed to get lost in the postal system. There was tracking on it, so I know the other party didn't receive it. I was able to resolve the matter w/ the help of a moderator/arbiter on the Bisq system and both of our deposits were returned to us. I was able to get a refund for the money order as well, although I had to break anonymity w/ the post office to do so.

I find it ironic that the most fragile part in this process is handled by the federal government. Maybe I'll use FedEx to deliver the money orders from now on.

[seajay]

I use Bisq. It is a decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange. There are different payment methods, but I choose to send USPS money orders to strangers in exchange for Bitcoin. They never know my name or address, and neither does the post office since I pay in cash.

I've made maybe 20-30 purchases like this, ranging from $400-$2000. There was one hiccup where my money order seemed to get lost in the postal system. There was tracking on it, so I know the other party didn't receive it. I was able to resolve the matter w/ the help of a moderator/arbiter on the Bisq system and both of our deposits were returned to us. I was able to get a refund for the money order as well, although I had to break anonymity w/ the post office to do so.

I find it ironic that the most fragile part in this process is handled by the federal government. Maybe I'll use FedEx to deliver the money orders from now on.

If you don't mind me asking, how do you hold/store the Bitcoins once you've bought them from another? Ignorant - but believe a offline wallet is the more secure, however I've no idea of how that may actually works in practice.

[Jack Jones]

I use Bisq. It is a decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange. There are different payment methods, but I choose to send USPS money orders to strangers in exchange for Bitcoin. They never know my name or address, and neither does the post office since I pay in cash.

I've made maybe 20-30 purchases like this, ranging from $400-$2000. There was one hiccup where my money order seemed to get lost in the postal system. There was tracking on it, so I know the other party didn't receive it. I was able to resolve the matter w/ the help of a moderator/arbiter on the Bisq system and both of our deposits were returned to us. I was able to get a refund for the money order as well, although I had to break anonymity w/ the post office to do so.

I find it ironic that the most fragile part in this process is handled by the federal government. Maybe I'll use FedEx to deliver the money orders from now on.

If you don't mind me asking, how do you hold/store the Bitcoins once you've bought them from another? Ignorant - but believe a offline wallet is the more secure, however I've no idea of how that may actually works in practice.

Immediately after the transaction, they are stored in a Bitcoin wallet that is managed by the Bisq software. When this balance begins to make me uncomfortable, I transfer it to a new address owned by an offline wallet that I set up previously. I can generate new addresses for this wallet w/out it being in my possession. Every couple years I retrieve the hardware wallet and make a test transaction to myself to ensure everything is running smoothly.

The next step in security for me would be a multi-signature setup where I would need 2 of 3 digital wallets to make an outbound transaction, and they would be stashed in different places. There are also companies that will help out w/ this kind of setup, e.g. they can hold one of the three keys for you in case you mess things up on your end. You could somehow involve your lawyer w/ one of the keys in case you die, etc.

[seajay]

Thanks Jack.

I see how you can pay in cash so as to acquire Btc anonymously, but that you need to record your email, phone number etc. to open a Bisq account, so still not like buying a gold coin in cash anonymously that's then off radar and in your own hands, no counter party risk. And where chances are that for re-conversion back to cash you're likely to find a pawn brokerage/whatever that exchanges cash for that coin, again anonymously. As such I still see crypto more a means to transfer capital internationally, whereas moving physical gold internationally is awkward/risky excepting if you liquidate it into a cash account and electronic transfer that cash elsewhere, and repurchase gold again at the target location. Or own a yacht/private jet.

[Jack Jones]

Thanks Jack.

I see how you can pay in cash so as to acquire Btc anonymously, but that you need to record your email, phone number etc. to open a Bisq account, so still not like buying a gold coin in cash anonymously that's then off radar and in your own hands, no counter party risk. And where chances are that for re-conversion back to cash you're likely to find a pawn brokerage/whatever that exchanges cash for that coin, again anonymously. As such I still see crypto more a means to transfer capital internationally, whereas moving physical gold internationally is awkward/risky excepting if you liquidate it into a cash account and electronic transfer that cash elsewhere, and repurchase gold again at the target location. Or own a yacht/private jet.

I don't think anyone at Bisq knows anything about me. I put in a fake name because I'm paying via an anonymous method. If you pay by some other method, you might need to divulge more about yourself.

But yeah, I agree with everything else you said.

[seajay]

I see recent Nexo quotes for lending PAXG (gold) at 7%, staking at 5% (similar to lending, but where you lend to the 'system' rather than a individual, as I understand it, so 'safer').

Idea :

Third 2x stock, two-thirds gold - via PAXG that's lent (at a 7% rate). 4.6% proportioned benefit.

Has the same broad reward expectancy as 50/50 stock/gold, but with a anticipated 1.5 times the volatility along the way. With the added bonus of +4.6% (gold lending).

PV data since 1998 indicates a 6.7% real, that if you could have added a consistent 4.6% via gold lending bolsters that to a 11.3% real. Or around 14% nominal (compared to 8% nominal/5.4% real for 100% TSM over the same period). Had similar volatility (standard deviation) as 100% stock over those years.