BTC in the PP

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seajay
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Re: BTC in the PP

Post by seajay » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:21 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:27 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:29 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:54 am
Bitcoin will crash and burn. It's just a matter of when. It's nothing like gold.
Gold/Bitcoin have some differences and similarities:
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:05 pm
Durability: bitcoin and gold both strong here.
Portability: bitcoin is digital thus much more portable than gold.
Divisibility: A single bitcoin can be subdivided into 100,000 sub units. Gold much hard to pay with shavings.
Uniformity/Fungibility: gold strong here (verifiability of such uniformity later). I think bitcoin is a bit weaker currently due to transactions being public. Improvements hopefully to come there.
Limited supply: bitcoin has a mathematic max of 21m coins. Gold is scarce as well but more susceptible to increases in supply with price rises (stock to flow). I think the mining asteroids argument is far off.
Acceptability: bitcoin is bad here. Gold has history and global awareness. This will be the last domino to fall on bitcoin's monetization.
Censorship Resistance: gold pretty good. Bitcoin better due to digital nature.
Security: Much easier to store bitcoin (paper, brain) than bulky gold.
Verifiability: bitcoin can be verified with free software. Gold you need contraptions for coins which are cheap. But hard for bars (see recent scandals on fake gold)
Seizure resistance: bitcoin wins as there isnt anything in the physical world that you really need to own it. Plausible deniability. Gold can be searched and found
What does crashing and burning look like for Bitcoin? Here are some actual crash and burns for Bitcoin, what do you think comes next?

$30->$1, $260->$40, $1200->$200, $19k->$3k. $65k->$28k
Thanks for this. I'm wildly speculating its going to "crash" from $1,000,000 to $500,00 in a few short years. Which will conclusively prove that bitcoin is a fad. And CNN will sarcastically dismiss any reports of the fed board of governors are now taking the salaries in BTC!
The security is concerning when China ban crypto currency transactions and also can solve (Hefei National Laboratory) the physics problem known as boson sampling in just over three minutes compared to the 2.5bn years that the worlds fastest supercomputers would otherwise take. The whole arena encompassed within private/public key based digital technology in a quantum era seems dated and in great jeopardy.
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Re: BTC in the PP

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:32 am

As a slight aside. I was talking to a system admin friend of mine and he said he used to carefully have to monitor the resources used on the mainframe. Now he has to do the same thing with his cloud resources because the providers will cost kill you on every thing you do.

It would be funny if we all had to move to a paper cash / commodity economy to fight quantum computers! “The bank just lost our deposits again today - Here I’ll trade you a sack of potatoes for a book” :)
seajay
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Re: BTC in the PP

Post by seajay » Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:28 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:32 am
It would be funny if we all had to move to a paper cash / commodity economy to fight quantum computers! “The bank just lost our deposits again today - Here I’ll trade you a sack of potatoes for a book” :)
Conventional banking involves audit trail that enables illicit transfers to be detected/blocked. Unlike Btc ownership of value isn't solely based upon private key alone. If Btc is levelled to the same then it becomes just another currency but not backed by any state/government.
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vnatale
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Re: BTC in the PP

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:31 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:24 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:15 am

Not sure it was posted earlier here, a work from Nassim Taleb named "Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility"

Even though I can't clearly understand all of his statements, its a good food for thought.


Well he's a lot smarter than I am. It's a very interesting read.


It's worthwhile to at least read the Introduction / Abstract. Thanks Vil for sharing this with us.

Capture.JPG
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Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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mathjak107
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Re: BTC in the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:30 am

Here is my opinion since while not a pp user it is a part of my gold budget that flys fighter cover for my portfolio.


The problem is we don’t know what bitcoin will respond to ….

While it is not tied to a particular country’s currency it kind of marches to its own drum ..it is not held by major central banks like gold ..

Bitcoin is a fraction of the size of the gold market so it is still in its infancy so to speak .

It is very very volatile ..last cycle it went from down 50% to a new high in 90 days .

I do own gbtc which is a bitcoin fund as part of the gold budget .and it’s kicking my ass right now .

But I kind of treat it like it’s own entity like I would a painting ……you need to just tuck it away by itself so to speak and let it sit and cycle and see where it goes …it is getting pounded now and in months can be breaking new highs , it is that crazy of an asset .

Personally I don’t rebalance it like i would a portfolio..it is way to volatile to do that .so while I consider it part of my gold budget I don’t treat it as such as far as rebalancing it goes ….it is a more a case of like a painting or stamp where it is what it is regardless of where it goes .

No way would I want to commit 25% more to it which is what I would have to if I wanted to rebalance it .

We have seen 20% drops over night and 12% gains in one session so it certainly is not like any other typical asset we would own.

But right or wrong that is how I treat it in my portfolio…..it is an unconventional asset which gets unconventional handling in my portfolio.

I guess if I was a pp user I would break bitcoin off and just call it my variable portfolio since it is money I can afford to loose and it is either going to be a swing for the fences or a bust
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