mathjak's daytrading adventures

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dockinGA
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dockinGA » Sat May 15, 2021 6:47 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:55 pm
can't even guess ..we may get a bump up in stocks if congress plays nice but that will be short lived .

being at the epee center here in nyc i can tell you things are getting worse and worse ...i think markets may only be 2/3;'s to half way to a bottom .

our governor said we maybe locked down pretty much until as long as june
Here is a previous prediction from March 23 2020. For the record, I also suspected the markets would continue to fall, but processed a trade for tens of thousands in stocks anyway using gains from other assets because I know that I can't predict the future. This should be exhibit A that you can't predict the future either, given that you posted this literally 55 minutes after the market closed at it's ABSOLUTE BOTTOM before beginning a surge of 80%+.

You're a market timer, day trader, performance chaser posting in a forum of people who have largely considered and dismissed your investment philosophies long ago, and you wonder why some of us get sick of reading your thousands of comments that provide nothing but your complaints about how you've lost some money on LTT's.

Picking a long term strategy, whatever that strategy may be (as long as it's a reasonably good one), and STICKING TO THAT STRATEGY will win out in the end by avoiding allowing emotions to cloud one's judgments about the future.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 8:15 am

You are making comments that are out in left field .

As anyone here can tell you I have followed the fidelity insight portfolios for 30 years …..

Those were always my portfolios until I made the mistake in December of switching to the pp as the only portfolio.

So you my friend need to learn facts before commenting about me .

On the other hand I enjoy fun trading but that has nothing to do with my core investments.

So I suggest you stop with the false comments …

I am back in the same models again and still do my trading on the side
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by D1984 » Sat May 15, 2021 9:12 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:15 am
You are making comments that are out in left field .

As anyone here can tell you I have followed the fidelity insight portfolios for 30 years …..

Those were always my portfolios until I made the mistake in December of switching to the pp as the only portfolio.

So you my friend need to learn facts before commenting about me .

On the other hand I enjoy fun trading but that has nothing to do with my core investments.

So I suggest you stop with the false comments …

I am back in the same models again and still do my trading on the side
You certainly could do worse than the Insight models for Unique Opportunities and Select; those seem to have well earned their keep as far as providing better returns (and better risk-adjusted returns) than large-cap equities as a whole. Growth has roughly equaled a 50/50 annually rebalanced blend of US Large Cap Growth and US Mid Cap Growth so no outperformance but no underperformance either. Growth and Income appears to have (albeit only by a little) lost to a simple 50/50 annually rebalanced blend of VBINX and VWELX which is about as plain and boring as you can get for a balanced growth and income type fund.....but the 50/50 blend beat the pants off of G&I in terms of having a much lower maxDD. The Income model (barely) beat the intermediate-term Treasury fund VFITX and got creamed by VWINX while still managing to lose almost 19% in 2008 (and I'd be willing to be the monthly maxDD from, say, late 2007 to Feb 28, 2009 was at least somewhat worse than that). A mixture of 11% TSM, 11% VFINX, and 78% 1-5 Year Treasury ladder returned virtually the same CAGR as the Income model with a worst year of -0.99% (less than 1%) and a maxDD of 5.95%.

None of this even takes into account the likely higher cap gains taxes from rebalancing and switching funds in the Growth and Income or Income models (unless this is all done inside a tax-advantaged account) or the fact that one has to pay an annual or monthly fee for access to these......tell me again why anyone should invest using these two models?
Last edited by D1984 on Sat May 15, 2021 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 am

i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund .

my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money .

MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income .

so that is where your comparison is not correct .

in fact there are instructions on the website for best using the models as no one model may fit the bill
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat May 15, 2021 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dockinGA » Sat May 15, 2021 9:24 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:15 am
You are making comments that are out in left field .

As anyone here can tell you I have followed the fidelity insight portfolios for 30 years …..

Those were always my portfolios until I made the mistake in December of switching to the pp as the only portfolio.

So you my friend need to learn facts before commenting about me .

On the other hand I enjoy fun trading but that has nothing to do with my core investments.

So I suggest you stop with the false comments …

I am back in the same models again and still do my trading on the side
I merely pointed out that your past predictions aren't always right. In fact, the prediction you made in March was dead wrong. Your prediction of continued rising rates and outperformance of stocks in the future could be right, or it could be just as wrong as your thoughts on the market last March.

Why did you make the decision to switch to the PP instead of what you were doing? If it worked so great, and equities are going to continue to outperform, why switch? Why bail on the PP over the span of December to March, or whenever you bailed? This reeks of market timing. And there are studies after studies after studies that show that market timing doesn't work in the long run.

I am not your friend. To me you are an internet persona that clogs up an investment discussion forum with the same crap that I can find on marketwatch, cnbc, or any other of the thousands of mainstream investing sites. The same sites that one day say 'Buy the market, this investment environment is ideal' and the next day say 'Bail on this market, inflation is going to kill returns, blah blah blah.' While I personally don't know the first thing about you, I know your type.....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 am

the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dockinGA » Sat May 15, 2021 9:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 am
the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down
The one day has tlt up about 0.94%.

Shall we look at even shorter data? 1 hr? 1 minute? If you own index funds, let's break that down too. Disney stock was down 2.45% yesterday, and if you own an S&P fund, you own Disney. Despite owning everything else and having your portfolio do well overall, 'down is down'.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by D1984 » Sat May 15, 2021 10:16 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 am
i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund .

my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money .

MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income .

so that is where your comparison is not correct .

in fact there are instructions on the website for best using the models as no one model may fit the bill
But comparing the Growth model to TSM is clearly not fair....if it is a "growth" model then why shouldn't it be compared to the blend of the two growth funds I mentioned (which has also beaten the pants off of TSM over the period I talked about)? Come to think of it, that blend of the growth funds also beat the TSM even from 1-1-2000 to 12-31-2020 (I deliberately started at 2000 since while the 1990s would've had growth doing splendidly the 2000-2008 period was not exactly a wonder show for US growth stock performance) and was only a hair behind the Growth model portfolio from Fidelity Monitor & Insight (if you would've started with $914,529 on 12-31-99 in both of them the FM&I Growth portfolio would've left you with roughly $4.407 million at year-end 2020 while the 50/50 LCG/MCG blend would've left you with around $4.3 million....this is assuming both were in tax-advantaged accounts, of course. The advantage in MaxDD for 2000-02 was with the FM&I portfolio--a 30.8% loss vs a 39.7% loss--but this is to be expected given that the 50/50 blend portfolio was starting from a slightly higher peak due to its somewhat higher return over the 1987-1999 period; when it comes to the 2008 crash both portfolios had approximately the same loss of a bit over 42%). Theoretically the 50/50 blend might've (I can't be sure since I don't have monthly data for the FM&I Growth portfolio's returns) had a slight advantage from the early 2000s if you are doing investments every month vs lump sum since by 2002 or early 2003 the 50/50 MCG/LCG blend would've been starting from a lower point which meant that your monthly DCA's contributions would buy cheaper shares than the FM&I portfolio's equivalent if you were DCAing into it but even if this is true this difference is likely to have been minor.

Again, as I said in my earlier post there seems to not be much difference in the FM&I Growth portfolio's returns vs a LCG/MCG blend; that doesn't mean it's a bad portfolio (hey, it turned $100K into $4.4 million) but it does make me question why it can't seem to seriously outperform a basic growth fund index blend (and this isn't even starting to compare it to QQQ or RYOCX over this same time frame....for that matter had TQQQ existed over the whole 1987 to 2020 period you could've gotten a roughly 22%+ MWRR CAGR on your monthly DCA'd contributions--and that is even including the 96% + maxDDs in 2000-02 and 2008-09! ).

What I said about the Income model not beating Wellesley or the almost 80% STT ladder with a bit of stocks stands as well; both of those portfolios would be very "safe" low variance low maxDD portfolios that someone might use to take retirement distributions (as withdrawals in lieu of income) from if they didn't want to risk a lot of their money in the market and were willing to give up a good bit of potential upside in order to not take very much risk. They would not be good choices for all of someone's portfolio (not nearly enough growth potential IMO) but for near term income needs wouldn't be too bad.

If I wanted something for current and near term income I might be just a wee bit concerned if it lost almost 20% in 2008 which the Income model did. That kind of loss wouldn't sting nearly so badly if the model could've even kept up with a basic income fund like Wellesley but it didn't; you would've ended up with $990,000 with Wellesley and only $485,000 with the Income model.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sat May 15, 2021 10:19 am

dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 am
the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down
The one day has tlt up about 0.94%.

Shall we look at even shorter data? 1 hr? 1 minute? If you own index funds, let's break that down too. Disney stock was down 2.45% yesterday, and if you own an S&P fund, you own Disney. Despite owning everything else and having your portfolio do well overall, 'down is down'.
Not to mention if everything is up, what does that say about your diversification?

I completely understand mjs line of thinking. And if it turns out that the dots get connected exactly as he predicts then the PP might have some rough years ahead relative to his present allocation. That being said, there is just as likely a chance that things don't go as planned and that the world takes all sorts of unforseen twists and turns that no one could have predicted...just as no one could have foreseen covid, we really have no idea how the millions of variables at play will shape our financial futures in the years to come.

I'd wager that the ultimate difference between mjs allocation and a PP to a retiree with a significant surplus of savings will be miniscule and that the real loss is the time one spends of ones later years of life fretting about all of it.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am

Let’s try and keep the discussion civil.
MJ provides much value to this forum on a daily basis and I for one enjoy listening to his life experiences.
He’s transparent both in his line of thinking and portfolio implementation.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 1:30 pm

D1984 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 10:16 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 am
i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund .

my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money .

MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income .

so that is where your comparison is not correct .

in fact there are instructions on the website for best using the models as no one model may fit the bill
But comparing the Growth model to TSM is clearly not fair....if it is a "growth" model then why shouldn't it be compared to the blend of the two growth funds I mentioned (which has also beaten the pants off of TSM over the period I talked about)? Come to think of it, that blend of the growth funds also beat the TSM even from 1-1-2000 to 12-31-2020 (I deliberately started at 2000 since while the 1990s would've had growth doing splendidly the 2000-2008 period was not exactly a wonder show for US growth stock performance) and was only a hair behind the Growth model portfolio from Fidelity Monitor & Insight (if you would've started with $914,529 on 12-31-99 in both of them the FM&I Growth portfolio would've left you with roughly $4.407 million at year-end 2020 while the 50/50 LCG/MCG blend would've left you with around $4.3 million....this is assuming both were in tax-advantaged accounts, of course. The advantage in MaxDD for 2000-02 was with the FM&I portfolio--a 30.8% loss vs a 39.7% loss--but this is to be expected given that the 50/50 blend portfolio was starting from a slightly higher peak due to its somewhat higher return over the 1987-1999 period; when it comes to the 2008 crash both portfolios had approximately the same loss of a bit over 42%). Theoretically the 50/50 blend might've (I can't be sure since I don't have monthly data for the FM&I Growth portfolio's returns) had a slight advantage from the early 2000s if you are doing investments every month vs lump sum since by 2002 or early 2003 the 50/50 MCG/LCG blend would've been starting from a lower point which meant that your monthly DCA's contributions would buy cheaper shares than the FM&I portfolio's equivalent if you were DCAing into it but even if this is true this difference is likely to have been minor.

Again, as I said in my earlier post there seems to not be much difference in the FM&I Growth portfolio's returns vs a LCG/MCG blend; that doesn't mean it's a bad portfolio (hey, it turned $100K into $4.4 million) but it does make me question why it can't seem to seriously outperform a basic growth fund index blend (and this isn't even starting to compare it to QQQ or RYOCX over this same time frame....for that matter had TQQQ existed over the whole 1987 to 2020 period you could've gotten a roughly 22%+ MWRR CAGR on your monthly DCA'd contributions--and that is even including the 96% + maxDDs in 2000-02 and 2008-09! ).

What I said about the Income model not beating Wellesley or the almost 80% STT ladder with a bit of stocks stands as well; both of those portfolios would be very "safe" low variance low maxDD portfolios that someone might use to take retirement distributions (as withdrawals in lieu of income) from if they didn't want to risk a lot of their money in the market and were willing to give up a good bit of potential upside in order to not take very much risk. They would not be good choices for all of someone's portfolio (not nearly enough growth potential IMO) but for near term income needs wouldn't be too bad.

If I wanted something for current and near term income I might be just a wee bit concerned if it lost almost 20% in 2008 which the Income model did. That kind of loss wouldn't sting nearly so badly if the model could've even kept up with a basic income fund like Wellesley but it didn't; you would've ended up with $990,000 with Wellesley and only $485,000 with the Income model.
The models are designed around use over specific time frames ….so the results are going to be a mix of portfolios….that is why to compare to other funds or portfolios one needs to compare exactly what they are using .

The income model is for short term cash , it is designed to do better than a money market with 75% less volatility than the s&p 500

The other models are for longer term money ..



Following Our Models

Model Portfolio Typical Use Long-Term Return Goal Risk Target Recommended Investment Horizon


Income Generating income with relatively low principal risk 4 - 5% 0.33 Less than 5 years

Growth & Income Balanced approach for staying ahead of inflation 6 - 7% 0.66 5 to 10 years

Growth Stock-oriented approach with market-level risk 8 - 9% 1.00 10 years or more

Select Aggressive approach using sector funds 10% 1.20 10 years or more

Unique Opportunities Aggressive approach using non-sector funds 10% 1.20 10 years or more
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vincent_c » Sat May 15, 2021 8:01 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 11:09 am
Let’s try and keep the discussion civil.
MJ provides much value to this forum on a daily basis and I for one enjoy listening to his life experiences.
He’s transparent both in his line of thinking and portfolio implementation.
It’s so hard to actually provoke intellectual discussions on this forum. So glad someone else called MJ out on what he does. The only usefulness is that if there isn’t much posting activity then the PP is probably doing just fine.

If you can’t handle a single rebalancing without changing course (something that is built into the strategy) and we can talk about 35/15 bands, then it really says a lot about whether you’re likely to be successful or (and here’s the trigger word) just plain lucky so far.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:11 am

MJ,

TLT blowin' up - Whatcha thinkin?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dockinGA » Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:57 am

Something tells me the fact that TLT is up about 10% since mathjak's final posts might have a lot to do with why he's disappeared. I'm proud to say I have no idea what the future holds for the PP, and TLT might give back it's 10% gains tomorrow, or stocks might drop 50% tomorrow and the gains in TLT and/or GLD will pale in comparison to the losses. But, based on some of MJ's other comments I read, and how quickly he seemed to swing back and forth on his enthusiasm for the PP, he's probably kicking himself for bailing on the PP after a couple of months using it, and is considering jumping back in.......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:08 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:57 am
Something tells me the fact that TLT is up about 10% since mathjak's final posts might have a lot to do with why he's disappeared. I'm proud to say I have no idea what the future holds for the PP, and TLT might give back it's 10% gains tomorrow, or stocks might drop 50% tomorrow and the gains in TLT and/or GLD will pale in comparison to the losses. But, based on some of MJ's other comments I read, and how quickly he seemed to swing back and forth on his enthusiasm for the PP, he's probably kicking himself for bailing on the PP after a couple of months using it, and is considering jumping back in.......
Well if that doesn't bring MJ out of the woodwork to comment on -- nothing will. :D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Don » Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:22 pm

He might be ill, or worse. I'm concerned.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dockinGA » Mon Jul 19, 2021 8:28 pm

Don wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:22 pm
He might be ill, or worse. I'm concerned.
I sincerely hope that isn't the case. I definitely wouldn't wish ill on anyone, and I think it's a shame he's completely disappeared. However, I think there were several people that felt like he was clogging up the boards with basically the same post over and over and over again.

But anyway, let's hope there's nothing to it other than him deciding to move on from the message board.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vnatale » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:39 am

Last night I sent a private message to mathjak to check up on him. He quickly responded.

He seems to be well. I'll let him say any more here in "public" if he so desires.
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