mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 am

modeljc wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:31 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm
except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
Ever think about using TMF and UGLD? Can you restate when you buy and when you sell. Is it wait for 5% drop and then buy. Sell when you have a 1% plus trade.
i don't like the leveraged versions for what i do ..they can have unintended consequences if you need to hold these types of funds longer term because they moved against you . they may not track what they are supposed to well over longer periods of time
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:04 am

adding more to gld and tlt today
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:12 am

Just as an averaging down strategy, less than 10% "dry" powder to average down seems pretty small?

If GLD is 137 and you've bought 2007 shares with 275k, and it drops to 135, and you average in 185 shares with 25k, you've only averaged down ~17 cents of that $2 drop.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:23 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:12 am
Just as an averaging down strategy, less than 10% "dry" powder to average down seems pretty small?

If GLD is 137 and you've bought 2007 shares with 275k, and it drops to 135, and you average in 185 shares with 25k, you've only averaged down ~17 cents of that $2 drop.
at this point the amount i will add will just about have no effect . i did my averaging down last week , i started buying in the mid 138's last week .

so being there is a little money left i want to commit as long as we are not up i may as well finish
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:09 am

we hit a point i would sell TLT today , gold did not hit yet ..so I decided i am letting them run longer still keeping the pp intact .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:52 am

I saw the drop, and now the bounceback....

it just seems so EASY sometimes.... we should all be able to do it. Good luck to you.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:09 pm

Things get in to this cycle where theY fix themselves to some event and then cycle with the news ..... you know the next favorable tweet saying good things about the trade deal will sell off Tlt and Gld again ...

Then the news is unfounded and the money pours back in ...this has been on going for a year now ... Tlt is up over 6k in a week since I completed buying
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:36 pm

Still holding ......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:14 pm

Sold Tlt today , up 11,200 ... watching for a dip. still have gld . it did not go up enough yet . i was going to sell it the other day when i was up nicely but i held in there for some reason and now it rolled back .

Bought some gbtc today after bitcoin plunged the last month
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:26 pm

Mathjak,

How did you decide to go with GE and XLE?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:08 pm

i watch for what gets beaten up the usual 2% or so and take a shot the market over did it . if it does not do a dead cat bounce before hitting my stop loss i am out .

when i guess wrong i can be out very quickly if i don't get the bounce . as you see in the trading statement i posted i keep losses to a very low minimum and in fact if the stock recovers the next day but is only up slightly i take the small profit and move on .

unless it is something i don't mind keeping i keep the investments under 20k . i don't mind having to sit on gold , long term treasuries , xle , uso , as even in a down trend they spike upwards when it is their day in the sun . i am up to 400k in gold i am holding at this point as i averaged down . i am about .33% from even after today . but things like ge or kraft heinz , no way would i speculate in them with big big dollars .... just in and out.

we should get a tweet or news soon that should send TLT back down a bit and i will buy it again and see where it goes . i don't mind holding these if i have to . but i rather ride the wave .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:21 am

Xle And GE gone . Both at small profits ...now both are down .. if Ge falls another 2% so from where I sold I will rebuy . Down about 1% now from where I sold earlier....these are all tradeded in my ira so no tax issues
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:38 am

buying back tlt today . pocketing a few thousand on the roll back and buying back what i had . still have gold
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:23 pm

wow crazy day for TLT . from the time i bought it this morning until i just got a chance to look again now , it was up 2k . when i went in to the studio after buying it earlier i was down 100 bucks ...so it recovered right after ...

so i am back again with the pp in its entirety and a couple of thousand additional in the coffers from selling Tlt earlier while it was still up high about two weeks ago.

I was tempted to sell what I bought this morning but I will wait a bit
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:42 am

well missed selling out TLT on friday since i was in the studio and markets closed early , , otherwise with TLT looking like it will be hammered today i would have been buying back in .. so instead i will add to gld and tlt positions and wait for the next spike ....that will bring me to 414k in each position at this point ... i will allow up to 500k in each position since beyond that i have all i will allow to go to the pp which would be 2 mil .

i don't mind having to wait with the pp since it is still a fine portfolio , just not my first choice so i prefer to use the pp as my variable trading vehicle where i can . . otherwise the gravy in gld and tlt swings just goes unharvested as it goes up 2% and down 2% . but these swings on these dollars is thousands of dollars each time in extra profit where i can .

those swings become crazy at these levels on days like today's futures where gld and tlt get pounded . tlt looks down 1.72% and gld about .75% so far at 5:42 am
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:40 am

both gld and tlt sold this morning for another almost 7k profit ....keep you posted on the next dip
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:24 am

How do you define "dip"? A percentage, your eyeball?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:57 am

i usually want 1 to 2 % per trade. a dip of 1.50-2% will get me in again . so far there is always something that causes these surges and roll backs ... capturing a few thousand each time really adds up .... hit 31k on tlt this morning in trade profits ..

but it is a bit uncomfortable when i don't have them flying fighter cover while waiting for the dip . so doing this is not for everyone because while you know the dip is coming you don't know when .

it already rolled back a few thousand off this mornings highs ...i did not catch the high though when i sold but it is now below where i sold after going up a few thousand higher .

so based on the dollars i use if we slide back 1 to 2% we are talking 4400-8400 dollars difference ..
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:58 pm

Gotcha, thanks.

Uncovered bombers, never good. :-)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:02 pm

Do you do this on stock ETFs as well? We're having a nice dip there as well currently.

And let me just be one to say, seeing the numbers you are racking up makes me.... jealous/envious/pissed/etc :D

But the numbers are not making me consider doing it!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:07 pm

i rarely do it with equities . they just don't tend to fall out of favor so predictably ... investors love to hate gold and long term bonds i have found .

we get days like today , and see the equal of a 700 point drop or gain in the dow from TLT . tomorrow investors want out.

gld has been stuck in a trading range so i haven't made as much with gld as tlt .. i show about 7k this year in gold as that money was in other stuff most of the time which had more of a trading range ,and 31k on TLT .

last year was different and i had over 30k in profit from gld .

if anyone wants i can post my trading statement .. you can see i have lots of small dollar gains because with the exception of gold and treasuries i keep very tight stop losses .. basically i look for a quick bounce . if i don't get it i am out fast .

but i never mind putting a lot of money in gld or tlt because it always gives me a quick entry and access point . the problem i find is if you wait to long to sell and it falls , well you can vbe at a loss for a long long time , like years .. so for tlt or gld i have a limit of up to 500k in each but very short 1 to 2% moves . but that money is only committed lately for at best a week and its out lately .


with equities i will wait until a bigger dip , and take a shot on a bounce in a day or 2 . right or wrong i am out .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:18 am

looks like the premarket shows TLT and GLD starting to take a dip again ...

TLT and gld remind of a parent yelling at their kid . they explode in a knee jerk reaction and within no time they go back to calm like it never happened ....until the next outburst .

so we shall see later. a 1-2% fall and i will rebuy it . in the mean time i bought xle yesterday in the interim since oil got beaten up the other day .. i bought xle the other day and sold it and ge for a small profit 1 day later . i rebought xle yesterday after selling tlt and gld while they still had nice gains on the day ..they rolled back quite a bit by the close
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:22 am

Well getting ready to buy back in to Tlt and Gld today ....getting just what I had sold yesterday with 8k extra saved in pocket ....not bad for a days work and the pp is back intact again.

Done

Gld 138.76. Tlt 139.33. ... that was quite a drop on Tlt from yesterday’s high
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:27 pm

Gold miners are stocks first and a play on gold second..2008 saw them plunge while gold went up .... it is subject to strikes , shortages , politics , management and earnings ..they are nothing like gold ...you can wait forever for an individual company to come back even with gold rising.. the gold miner graveyard is filled with failed companies.

I never average down in individual companies...if I am wrong I am out. But my serious investing is only funds
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:12 am

i likely may run with slv today but i will say this about silver , it is not the same as gold when it comes to holding it .

silver is an industrial metal first and foremost . it does not offer the same protection as gold does in my opinion . 2008 saw silver plunge while gold went up .

so yeah , i will treat slv like i do any other stock speculation since i don't want to hold it like i would gold. if i guessed wrong . that means not a big position and a quick sell on a point or 2 rise . with very little leeway allowed on a fall . only a point or two if i am wrong and i'm out of it
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