Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

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Kbg
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Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:21 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:53 pm
I can dream, right?

The GEM pops out of stocks in 2019
Just as the 10 year Treasury hits 4%
Just as gold dives under $1000 because of the strong Dollar due to 4% bond yields

I rebalance gold back up to 10%, dump my stocks and go to bonds, and my retirement plan will work OK with 4% CAGR so who cares if no stocks?

After three years, in 2022, I buy back into the S&P500 at 1000. In the meantime, the banks did more QE, so my bond holdings have appreciated.

By 2026, my portfolio has doubled. I retire. The wheels fall off of the US Dollar due to trillion dollar deficits, gold goes to $5000 per ounce. Because I converted my IRA to Roth IRA, I escape most of the massively increased taxes needed to pay for Boomer retirement benefits.

I can dream, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=621Nk3Ubz4A
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ochotona
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Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Post by ochotona » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:15 pm

No change to the GEM for September 2018. Still 100% in US stock ETFs like SCHX, IVV, VOO, etc.

In other threads, I expressed a desire to di-worse-ify into other types of funds available in my retirement plans that have very strong momentum, but I'm still going to use the SP500 momentum measurement as a risk kill-switch for all risk assets, when that moment arrives someday... the business cycle has not been outlawed.
HappyMan
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Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Post by HappyMan » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:46 am

Is it time to replace IVV with QQQ? They are correlated. Once below, QQQ now brings almost double the return since Feb 2017. Disadvantage - Schwab and co charges buy/sell fees.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
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ochotona
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Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:21 am

No change to the GEM portfolio for October 2018. Still 100% in US stock ETFs like SCHX, IVV, VOO, etc.
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