20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

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Dum
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Dum » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:21 am

I think this is a better way forward than the experiment I suggested using synthetic long equity done using LEAPS.
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Cortopassi
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Cortopassi » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:46 am

Probably. At least there are no defined expiration dates.
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Kbg
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:38 am

Some where on the boards, I think in the VP section, is a live money leaps demo that is in year 3 or 4 but they only post at the end/beginning of the year when they roll.
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:09 am

2.5x means 250K equivalent/25% each to SHY, TMF, UGLD, and SPXL/25K SHY and 225K (75K x3) equivalent everything else

2x means 200K equivalent/16.667 each to the above and 50% to SHY/50K SHY and 150K (50K x3) equivalent everything else

1.5x means 150K equivalent/8.333% each to the above and 75% to SHY/75K SHY and 75K (25K x3) equivalent everything else

1x means 100K/25% each to SHY, TLT, GLD, SPY

Purchase price was at the close 12/30/16 through the close on 4/28/17

2.5x = 11.95%/-6.63%DD (Quarterly rebalance...0/-0%DD)

2x = 8.12%/-4.70%DD (Quarterly rebalance...0/-0%DD)

1.5x = 4.29%/-2.61%DD (Quarterly rebalance...0/-0%DD)

1x = 4.36%/-2.24%DD

Personal mix = 10.42/-5.42% DD

SPY TR: 5.53%/-2.61% DD

Torture Port (SHY/XIV/TMF, 50/25/25) 12.16%/-3.78%
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Kbg
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Thu May 18, 2017 9:36 pm

Funny to read all the volatility posts on the board...and here we are in our 3x rocket and the whole thing was a big...meah.
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby clacy » Fri May 19, 2017 9:45 am

Kbg wrote:Funny to read all the volatility posts on the board...and here we are in our 3x rocket and the whole thing was a big...meah.



Can you clarify your point? If you are saying that all the panic about the vol decay from leveraged ETF's was overblown, I would agree.

Certainly there are some horribly designed leveraged ETF's (some of the energy ETF's for example). But in a case like the PP, where you have 3 volatile assets that low correlation, the volatility actually can help you since you're constantly re-balancing into and out of assets.
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Fri May 19, 2017 10:10 am

Much more simple comment, this portfolio barely moved this week.
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:26 pm

2.5x means 250K equivalent/25% each to SHY, TMF, UGLD, and SPXL/25K SHY and 225K (75K x3) equivalent everything else

2x means 200K equivalent/16.667 each to the above and 50% to SHY/50K SHY and 150K (50K x3) equivalent everything else

1.5x means 150K equivalent/8.333% each to the above and 75% to SHY/75K SHY and 75K (25K x3) equivalent everything else

1x means 100K/25% each to SHY, TLT, GLD, SPY

Purchase price was at the close 12/30/16 through the close on 6/2/17

2.5x = 19.68%/-6.63%DD (Quarterly rebalance...19.67/-6.64%DD)

2x = 13.24%/-4.70%DD (Quarterly rebalance...13.12/-4.73%DD)

1.5x = 6.85%/-2.63%DD (Quarterly rebalance..6.74/-2.65%DD)

1x = 6.92%/-2.24%DD

Personal mix = 12.06/-5.42% DD

SPY TR: 9.75%/-2.61% DD

Torture Port (SHY/XIV/TMF, 50/25/25) 22.27%/-5.20%
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Kbg
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:37 pm

2.5x means 250K equivalent/25% each to SHY, TMF, UGLD, and SPXL/25K SHY and 225K (75K x3) equivalent everything else

2x means 200K equivalent/16.667 each to the above and 50% to SHY/50K SHY and 150K (50K x3) equivalent everything else

1.5x means 150K equivalent/8.333% each to the above and 75% to SHY/75K SHY and 75K (25K x3) equivalent everything else

1x means 100K/25% each to SHY, TLT, GLD, SPY

Purchase price was at the close 12/30/16 through the close on 6/30/17

2.5x = 15.64%/-6.63%DD (Quarterly rebalance...15.92/-6.64%DD)

2x = 11.52%/-4.70%DD (Quarterly rebalance...10.67/-4.73%DD)

1.5x = 5.43%/-2.63%DD (Quarterly rebalance..5.49/-2.65%DD)

1x = 5.83%/-2.24%DD

Personal mix = 11.68/-5.42% DD

SPY TR: 9.17%/-2.61% DD

Torture Port (SHY/XIV/TMF, 50/25/25) 22.95%/-5.20%

Note: After some study/further review, I have switched to UPRO as the ETF of choice for the large cap leveraged ETF in my personal account. Rationale: Lower fees, liquidity just as good now. Of note, I am in the process of evaluating a switch to a less amped version of the Torture port vs. the leveraged PP. By all metrics it has done better than the leveraged PP...but we've been in a bull market since the VXX/XIV came on the scene. My basic planning assumption for this portfolio is that XIV will blow up at some point, so a 100% loss and the ability to roll with it must be an inherent aspect of the associated trading plan.
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Kbg
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:07 pm

If you are along for the ride with real money or just following for fun, this is a very good read.

http://ddnum.com/articles/leveragedETFs.php
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Kbg
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Kbg » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:38 pm

Down .9% today, would have been very slightly up but XIV was today's hammer in my version of the VPPP. A straight up 3x as mentioned would have been slightly north of positive...this is a good mix of assets and days like today demonstrate that.

On the downside it wasn't fun seeing my 500ish% profits on XIV get knocked down to 350ish% in a couple of days! :o

Repeat after me everyone: If I am doing this portfolio, I solemnly swear that I will never fixate on a single asset/ETF and that I will true and faithfully look only at the portfolio's overall results. So help me Harry.
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Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Postby Jeffreyalan » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:16 pm

Are there any compelling reasons to add a MidCap or Small Cap 3x ETF to this portfolio? Or does an S&P 500 3x suffice for the stock portion?

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