Re: A question only a PP novice could ask
Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:14 pm
Not sure I can really answer these questions to everyone’s satisfaction.
Structural...illiquidity of the underlying bonds in the ETFs that could cause a serious price dislocation if the ETF has to sell quickly and heavily due to redemptions. Many bond ETF’s daily trading value greatly exceed their underlying portfolio value. I’m not going to go into it here, but if you understand how large scale ETF share blocks can be created and redeemed for the underlying then this issue isn’t difficult to understand.
Returns and value...your critique is exactly his point. Some math is easy. Notional example. inflation 2%, bond yield -.5%, real return is a guaranteed -2.5% and thus there is really no rational economic reason to purchase these bonds. (Och, you inferred a lot of things I never said about bond quality types)
In reaction he recommends a couple of things.
- if you can ride out the volatility, buy/hold something that has a better chance of providing an actual real return over a longer period of time (he’s written about several options one could do here. One example, buy WFC-L preferred)
- hold cash, not bonds. Simple math again...lose “only” 2% vs 2.5% per year
- if you are going to hold bonds, then hold US treasuries only
- he’s a big non-fan of LT bonds of any sort
As mentioned, his perspective is as a value investor and he sees very low or negative value with the vast majority of bonds these days. mathematically his argument is as bulletproof as it gets. Using the latest inflation and 10Y T yield data and assuming no inflation changes for 10 years you are locking in a 1.1 real return. His view would simply be, if that’s your hold period you could do a lot better with other options that are relatively safe.
He’s not a huge fan of US stock index funds either for valuation reasons (at this point in time).
Anyway, just sharing a perspective from a guy I respect who isn’t selling something.
Structural...illiquidity of the underlying bonds in the ETFs that could cause a serious price dislocation if the ETF has to sell quickly and heavily due to redemptions. Many bond ETF’s daily trading value greatly exceed their underlying portfolio value. I’m not going to go into it here, but if you understand how large scale ETF share blocks can be created and redeemed for the underlying then this issue isn’t difficult to understand.
Returns and value...your critique is exactly his point. Some math is easy. Notional example. inflation 2%, bond yield -.5%, real return is a guaranteed -2.5% and thus there is really no rational economic reason to purchase these bonds. (Och, you inferred a lot of things I never said about bond quality types)
In reaction he recommends a couple of things.
- if you can ride out the volatility, buy/hold something that has a better chance of providing an actual real return over a longer period of time (he’s written about several options one could do here. One example, buy WFC-L preferred)
- hold cash, not bonds. Simple math again...lose “only” 2% vs 2.5% per year
- if you are going to hold bonds, then hold US treasuries only
- he’s a big non-fan of LT bonds of any sort
As mentioned, his perspective is as a value investor and he sees very low or negative value with the vast majority of bonds these days. mathematically his argument is as bulletproof as it gets. Using the latest inflation and 10Y T yield data and assuming no inflation changes for 10 years you are locking in a 1.1 real return. His view would simply be, if that’s your hold period you could do a lot better with other options that are relatively safe.
He’s not a huge fan of US stock index funds either for valuation reasons (at this point in time).
Anyway, just sharing a perspective from a guy I respect who isn’t selling something.