The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I just try to look at it as trying to catch fish. Using 4 fishing poles in 1 pond, instead of 4 ponds with 1 fishing pole.jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:40 amFor those who have "moved on", what have you moved on to? How have your views changed and where are they now?
For me, I don't buy into Schiff's specific views of what Is going to happen to interest rates, gold or stocks in the next 3-6 month or even the next year or two. He cannot predict those things any more than we can. However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.
Using different bait helps, but there will Always be the ONE that got away
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Sadly, what is morally right and wrong has nothing to do with what is profitable or unprofitable in investing.
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Even assuming that Schiff is ultimately right about the outcome of the current debt crisis, it's hard to predict the lengths to which our government might go to make things work out for the elites, on one hand, and the debt-ridden masses on the other. It will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed. When you see an entire party of candidates whose platforms consist of a parade of giveaways, as well as a renewed push toward a centrally-controlled digitized monetary system, it's easy to see how you could be spot-on about the inevitability of a crash but entirely wrong about the mechanics of how it plays out.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Good analogy, I'd agree 100% with. I tried for too long to catch a big fish. Never did. Should have been fishing smaller and just catching more small ones consistently over time with the PP.shekels wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:44 amI just try to look at it as trying to catch fish. Using 4 fishing poles in 1 pond, instead of 4 ponds with 1 fishing pole.jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:40 amFor those who have "moved on", what have you moved on to? How have your views changed and where are they now?
For me, I don't buy into Schiff's specific views of what Is going to happen to interest rates, gold or stocks in the next 3-6 month or even the next year or two. He cannot predict those things any more than we can. However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.
Using different bait helps, but there will Always be the ONE that got away
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Actually, if you look at the data consumer debt is actually very low historically. The 2008 crisis was mostly a household deleveraging. This generation of people for the most part have kind of learned their lesson. These household debt crisis' tend to happen once a lifetime for this reason. The debt problem now is all corporate. Corporate America, which largely did not have to delever in 2008 (outside of a few select sectors of course), not only started off the recovery with a good amount of debt, but they took full advantage of the low rates to binge on debt. Any deleveraging we may need in the near future is not because of consumer splurging on all those frivolous items you mentioned (at least this time it is not), it's all been generated by corporations, and mostly for share buybacks. So all those people that "scrimped and saved" basically were unknowingly levered up behind the scenes over the last decade, and now they will have to pay the bill for the earnings they were fronted. Their investment gains were essentially brought forward.Maddy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:16 amEven assuming that Schiff is ultimately right about the outcome of the current debt crisis, it's hard to predict the lengths to which our government might go to make things work out for the elites, on one hand, and the debt-ridden masses on the other. It will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed. When you see an entire party of candidates whose platforms consist of a parade of giveaways, as well as a renewed push toward a centrally-controlled digitized monetary system, it's easy to see how you could be spot-on about the inevitability of a crash but entirely wrong about the mechanics of how it plays out.
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
It's clear that since they were both financiers and libertarians, both Schiff and Browne had many similar world views.
However, I think the crux of the departure is this: Schiff thinks he can predict the future, while Browne concedes that he cannot.
And that makes all the difference when it comes to investment strategy.
In fact, not being able to predict the future is the very premise of the Permanent Portfolio. It's a neutral investment philosophy that shuns anyone claiming to wield a crystal ball. This even includes titans by the likes of Buffett, Gross, and Ackman.
Schiff's portfolio is probably along the lines of what Browne may have recommended, had he not adopted this all important philosophical principle.
However, I think the crux of the departure is this: Schiff thinks he can predict the future, while Browne concedes that he cannot.
And that makes all the difference when it comes to investment strategy.
In fact, not being able to predict the future is the very premise of the Permanent Portfolio. It's a neutral investment philosophy that shuns anyone claiming to wield a crystal ball. This even includes titans by the likes of Buffett, Gross, and Ackman.
Schiff's portfolio is probably along the lines of what Browne may have recommended, had he not adopted this all important philosophical principle.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I don't know if Schiff truly thinks he can predict the future, but he sure tries to sell to other people that he does. Then again, if he sells enough people on that fact he can afford to be wrong because he will still be making money either way. It's a genius setup he has if you really think about it. He gets paid either way.Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:40 pmIt's clear that since they were both financiers and libertarians, both Schiff and Browne had many similar world views.
However, I think the crux of the departure is this: Schiff thinks he can predict the future, while Browne concedes that he cannot.
And that makes all the difference when it comes to investment strategy.
In fact, not being able to predict the future is the very premise of the Permanent Portfolio. It's a neutral investment philosophy that shuns anyone claiming to wield a crystal ball. This even includes titans by the likes of Buffett, Gross, and Ackman.
Schiff's portfolio is probably along the lines of what Browne may have recommended, had he not adopted this all important philosophical principle.
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I have this same worry. There have been more steps in this direction recently with a wealth tax entering the political discussion on the Democratic side, along with demonization of pretty much everyone above poverty level helped by a strong dose of racial politics. It's only a matter of time until the proposed $50 million threshold becomes $ 1 million, which would hit just about every responsible saver who owns a home especially late in life.Maddy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:16 amIt will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed.
If you add up all the freebies that are being proposed plus the millions flooding unchecked through the southern border you have to start asking who's going to pay for all this? People with savings are going to be way too tempting a target to pass up, either for the federal government or for the states who are not only about to get loads of new welfare recipients, but at the same time are planning to expand those benefits.
Sorry, off topic a bit :-).
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/househo ... -says.htmlpmward wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:16 am
Actually, if you look at the data consumer debt is actually very low historically. The 2008 crisis was mostly a household deleveraging. This generation of people for the most part have kind of learned their lesson. These household debt crisis' tend to happen once a lifetime for this reason. The debt problem now is all corporate. Corporate America, which largely did not have to delever in 2008 (outside of a few select sectors of course), not only started off the recovery with a good amount of debt, but they took full advantage of the low rates to binge on debt. Any deleveraging we may need in the near future is not because of consumer splurging on all those frivolous items you mentioned (at least this time it is not), it's all been generated by corporations, and mostly for share buybacks. So all those people that "scrimped and saved" basically were unknowingly levered up behind the scenes over the last decade, and now they will have to pay the bill for the earnings they were fronted. Their investment gains were essentially brought forward.
Not so fast!!!
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Off topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.
A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.
A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:56 pm
Off topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.
A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.
I know that you are one of the younger ones here but your appreciation of this underscores how you have always been one of the wisest ones among us!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Not according to portfolio visualizer…I did asset backtest , us stock market vs gold .boglerdude wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:05 amAre the goldbugs so wrong? If im reading this right GLD has outperformed the market for ~15 years
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D
Gold has beaten equities over the last 20 years according to portfolio visualizer… I put in 2002 to 2022 .
However the last 15 shows gold missing badly I put in 2007 to 2022
It also has gold lagging the 10 and 5 year too .
Going out 25 years to 1997 shows gold lagging badly as well
So it is only that one date range which is the sweet spot , around 20 years that shows gold beating equities
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I understand the gold portion of his thesis but why is he so big on international stocks? Most developed nations are as indebted as the US. Why would we go down and they stay afloat? Is he betting on the dollar losing status as reserve currency?Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:56 pmOff topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.
A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.
And for people who do not believe is doom porners like Schiff and Rickards, what do you feel will eventually happen with our astronomical debt levels?
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
jalanlong wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:55 am
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:56 pm
Off topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.
A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.
I understand the gold portion of his thesis but why is he so big on international stocks? Most developed nations are as indebted as the US. Why would we go down and they stay afloat? Is he betting on the dollar losing status as reserve currency?
And for people who do not believe is doom porners like Schiff and Rickards, what do you feel will eventually happen with our astronomical debt levels?
How can ANY good come out of it.
I'm a no debt person. I've never had a car loan or a house mortgage. The only debt I had was about $2,000 student loan debt after finishing the last two years of undergraduate degree and then getting a masters degree over a three year period.
Therefore, I'm big time anti-debt as a country. It represents complete abdication of responsibility.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I agree with Vinny completely on this one.
I also tend to think that economic principles apply to entities pretty much universally regardless of their size. What's good for an individual is usually good for an organization. What's good at the organizational level is usually also good for nations.
1. Never allow your debt to grow faster than your income, because sooner or later your debts will crush you.
2. Never allow your income to grow faster than your productivity, because sooner or later you will become uncompetitive
3. Do everything you can to increase your productivity, because sooner or later that will determine your quality of life.
I also tend to think that economic principles apply to entities pretty much universally regardless of their size. What's good for an individual is usually good for an organization. What's good at the organizational level is usually also good for nations.
1. Never allow your debt to grow faster than your income, because sooner or later your debts will crush you.
2. Never allow your income to grow faster than your productivity, because sooner or later you will become uncompetitive
3. Do everything you can to increase your productivity, because sooner or later that will determine your quality of life.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Economic principles, perhaps, but those aren't the same as monetary principles. And, you may be right about monetary principles applying regardless of the size of the organization. But I don't think those apply at the level of the nation-state with its own fiat currency.Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:40 pmI agree with Vinny completely on this one.
I also tend to think that economic principles apply to entities pretty much universally regardless of their size. What's good for an individual is usually good for an organization. What's good at the organizational level is usually also good for nations.
1. Never allow your debt to grow faster than your income, because sooner or later your debts will crush you.
2. Never allow your income to grow faster than your productivity, because sooner or later you will become uncompetitive
3. Do everything you can to increase your productivity, because sooner or later that will determine your quality of life.
Not because the size is bigger, but because the nature of money/debt is completely different as a currency issuer as opposed to a currency user. It's just a qualitatively different thing.
It could well be argued that this should not be the case: that nation-states should not have this special relationship with money, that it's too much power for them to have. That is a compelling argument. But "should" doesn't change what is.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
If a country owes in its own currency, it can inflate away the debt (pay all its bills with monopoly money). Lockdowns are the new tool to shut down protest over inflation (or anything else)
If you owe in a currency you cant print....you might have to sell your infrastructure (oil, ports)
On the other hand working age populations are shrinking which is deflationary. Hopefully "covid" wont happen again, as it's cover for the CCP's economy slowing down like Japan's did when their population began to decline. Japan was a lot more polite about that transition.
If you owe in a currency you cant print....you might have to sell your infrastructure (oil, ports)
On the other hand working age populations are shrinking which is deflationary. Hopefully "covid" wont happen again, as it's cover for the CCP's economy slowing down like Japan's did when their population began to decline. Japan was a lot more polite about that transition.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
I would say working age population shrinking is turning out to be inflationary because of wage inflation.
We are seeing that now
We are seeing that now
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Well, Peter Schiff has a near legendary rivalry with Harry Dent.
Dent is in the deflation camp while Schiff of course is firmly in the inflation camp.
Looks like Schiff has won this round.
Dent is in the deflation camp while Schiff of course is firmly in the inflation camp.
Looks like Schiff has won this round.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Agreed, and often not talked about but we lost 1M people to Covid. A lot of them were not working, but even a bunch of older folks would do some part time work. Many are now dead. It had to have an impact on the workforce.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:28 amI would say working age population shrinking is turning out to be inflationary because of wage inflation.
We are seeing that now
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
We lost 5.5 million workers who either were layed off or quit ..most never came back in to the work force
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:01 pm
We lost 5.5 million workers who either were layed off or quit ..most never came back in to the work force
I made my decision to leave my job in May 2020 but that was completely independent of the pandemic. Was due to that particular job circumstances.
Have not regretted that decision for a split-second!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Ah, but which is cause vs effect?mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:28 amI would say working age population shrinking is turning out to be inflationary because of wage inflation.
We are seeing that now
Last I saw, wages growing slower than inflation
Corporate profits haven’t been doing badly
Resource issues what with that Russia/Ukraine thing
COVID still significantly impacting manufacturing in places like China
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
The global labor pool is billions of people and Canada+US borders are looser than ever. Automation taking still more jobs. Low skill labor is in trouble. High skill will never have a problem getting a good wage. eg Bezos is happy to pay someone to run most of his logistics and cloud, but wont pay anything to box sorters.
Americans will not tolerate sustained asset deflation. 401k and home must go up nominally. Temporary maybe, to shake the weak out of their homes/assets.
Americans will not tolerate sustained asset deflation. 401k and home must go up nominally. Temporary maybe, to shake the weak out of their homes/assets.