The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

[boglerdude]

Similar stories about Stockman. Fear sells, always will. Even being aware of this, Im still on Bogleheads too often, looking for threats :/

[Ad Orientem]

Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.

[boglerdude]

The apples dont fall far from the tree

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff

[Cortopassi]

Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.

So have I and am much better for it.

[shekels]

Regardless, if you look at reviews you can see some really sad stories about how people have lost all of their savings thanks to his stock picks (many were gold miners) over the past 10 years. I remember reading recently about how one person couldn’t even afford to bury their child after Schiff’s brokers packed their ridiculous fees on top of the crashed investments. So sad.

IMO, One of the Talking Heads to avoid. Schiff has been riding the same train to Armageddon for years. Eventually he may be right, but in whose lifetime?
https://www.yelp.com/biz/euro-pacific-c ... rt-beach-2

[ahhrunforthehills]

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[ahhrunforthehills]

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[Maddy]

I'm living proof of the devastation he and his ilk wreaked upon naive investors acting out of fear. I've still got a boatload of miners that have been sitting in an investment account since 2007 and that are still significantly in the red. I not only lost the majority of everything I had saved over a lifetime of work, but I missed out entirely on the last 10 years of market boom. No doubt my life and retirement would be significantly easier than it is now had I not followed these guys' advice. Strangely, I knew of the PP at the time, but, contrary to all evidence, somehow believed that I was more protected in gold stocks than in a 25x4--or even a basic boglehead portfolio. I don't want to fall into the trap of blaming others for my mistakes, but the basic message voiced by these guys--which is that there is only one possible way the market can go--was, at least when broadcast to unseasoned investors such as myself, inexcusably deceptive. All the more so when presented as the way to safeguard one's life savings.

[Smith1776]

Wow, guys, I’ve got to say I didn’t expect so many people to pipe up with these kinds of bad experiences with Schiff. I’ve never dealt with him or his company. Very eye opening.

[boglerdude]

Are the goldbugs so wrong? If im reading this right GLD has outperformed the market for ~15 years

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D

[jalanlong]

Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.

So have I and am much better for it.

For those who have "moved on", what have you moved on to? How have your views changed and where are they now?

For me, I don't buy into Schiff's specific views of what Is going to happen to interest rates, gold or stocks in the next 3-6 month or even the next year or two. He cannot predict those things any more than we can. However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.

[Kbg]

The main problem is most of these guys paint a darker picture than reality and ignore the fact that humans are innovative and adapt.

[ahhrunforthehills]

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[shekels]

So have I and am much better for it.

For those who have "moved on", what have you moved on to? How have your views changed and where are they now?

For me, I don't buy into Schiff's specific views of what Is going to happen to interest rates, gold or stocks in the next 3-6 month or even the next year or two. He cannot predict those things any more than we can. However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.

I just try to look at it as trying to catch fish. Using 4 fishing poles in 1 pond, instead of 4 ponds with 1 fishing pole.

Using different bait helps, but there will Always be the ONE that got away

[pmward]

However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.

Sadly, what is morally right and wrong has nothing to do with what is profitable or unprofitable in investing.

[Maddy]

Even assuming that Schiff is ultimately right about the outcome of the current debt crisis, it's hard to predict the lengths to which our government might go to make things work out for the elites, on one hand, and the debt-ridden masses on the other. It will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed. When you see an entire party of candidates whose platforms consist of a parade of giveaways, as well as a renewed push toward a centrally-controlled digitized monetary system, it's easy to see how you could be spot-on about the inevitability of a crash but entirely wrong about the mechanics of how it plays out.

[Cortopassi]

So have I and am much better for it.

For those who have "moved on", what have you moved on to? How have your views changed and where are they now?

For me, I don't buy into Schiff's specific views of what Is going to happen to interest rates, gold or stocks in the next 3-6 month or even the next year or two. He cannot predict those things any more than we can. However, I have to agree with his overall philosophy that a gigantic citizenry who seem to want and expect everything for "free" and a government willing to buy their votes by giving it to them cannot possibly end up with a positive outcome.

I just try to look at it as trying to catch fish. Using 4 fishing poles in 1 pond, instead of 4 ponds with 1 fishing pole.

Using different bait helps, but there will Always be the ONE that got away

Good analogy, I'd agree 100% with. I tried for too long to catch a big fish. Never did. Should have been fishing smaller and just catching more small ones consistently over time with the PP.

[pmward]

Even assuming that Schiff is ultimately right about the outcome of the current debt crisis, it's hard to predict the lengths to which our government might go to make things work out for the elites, on one hand, and the debt-ridden masses on the other. It will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed. When you see an entire party of candidates whose platforms consist of a parade of giveaways, as well as a renewed push toward a centrally-controlled digitized monetary system, it's easy to see how you could be spot-on about the inevitability of a crash but entirely wrong about the mechanics of how it plays out.

Actually, if you look at the data consumer debt is actually very low historically. The 2008 crisis was mostly a household deleveraging. This generation of people for the most part have kind of learned their lesson. These household debt crisis' tend to happen once a lifetime for this reason. The debt problem now is all corporate. Corporate America, which largely did not have to delever in 2008 (outside of a few select sectors of course), not only started off the recovery with a good amount of debt, but they took full advantage of the low rates to binge on debt. Any deleveraging we may need in the near future is not because of consumer splurging on all those frivolous items you mentioned (at least this time it is not), it's all been generated by corporations, and mostly for share buybacks. So all those people that "scrimped and saved" basically were unknowingly levered up behind the scenes over the last decade, and now they will have to pay the bill for the earnings they were fronted. Their investment gains were essentially brought forward.

[Smith1776]

It's clear that since they were both financiers and libertarians, both Schiff and Browne had many similar world views.

However, I think the crux of the departure is this: Schiff thinks he can predict the future, while Browne concedes that he cannot.

And that makes all the difference when it comes to investment strategy.

In fact, not being able to predict the future is the very premise of the Permanent Portfolio. It's a neutral investment philosophy that shuns anyone claiming to wield a crystal ball. This even includes titans by the likes of Buffett, Gross, and Ackman.

Schiff's portfolio is probably along the lines of what Browne may have recommended, had he not adopted this all important philosophical principle.

[pmward]

It's clear that since they were both financiers and libertarians, both Schiff and Browne had many similar world views.

However, I think the crux of the departure is this: Schiff thinks he can predict the future, while Browne concedes that he cannot.

And that makes all the difference when it comes to investment strategy.

In fact, not being able to predict the future is the very premise of the Permanent Portfolio. It's a neutral investment philosophy that shuns anyone claiming to wield a crystal ball. This even includes titans by the likes of Buffett, Gross, and Ackman.

Schiff's portfolio is probably along the lines of what Browne may have recommended, had he not adopted this all important philosophical principle.

I don't know if Schiff truly thinks he can predict the future, but he sure tries to sell to other people that he does. Then again, if he sells enough people on that fact he can afford to be wrong because he will still be making money either way. It's a genius setup he has if you really think about it. He gets paid either way.

[sophie]

It will be a hard pill to swallow if the assets of those who have scrimped and saved for the future are redistributed to the ones who have gone deeply into debt for the sake of ski-doos, granite countertops, luxury trucks, and $100,000 musicology degrees, but that appears to be where we are headed.

I have this same worry. There have been more steps in this direction recently with a wealth tax entering the political discussion on the Democratic side, along with demonization of pretty much everyone above poverty level helped by a strong dose of racial politics. It's only a matter of time until the proposed $50 million threshold becomes $ 1 million, which would hit just about every responsible saver who owns a home especially late in life.

If you add up all the freebies that are being proposed plus the millions flooding unchecked through the southern border you have to start asking who's going to pay for all this? People with savings are going to be way too tempting a target to pass up, either for the federal government or for the states who are not only about to get loads of new welfare recipients, but at the same time are planning to expand those benefits.

Sorry, off topic a bit :-).

[jalanlong]

Actually, if you look at the data consumer debt is actually very low historically. The 2008 crisis was mostly a household deleveraging. This generation of people for the most part have kind of learned their lesson. These household debt crisis' tend to happen once a lifetime for this reason. The debt problem now is all corporate. Corporate America, which largely did not have to delever in 2008 (outside of a few select sectors of course), not only started off the recovery with a good amount of debt, but they took full advantage of the low rates to binge on debt. Any deleveraging we may need in the near future is not because of consumer splurging on all those frivolous items you mentioned (at least this time it is not), it's all been generated by corporations, and mostly for share buybacks. So all those people that "scrimped and saved" basically were unknowingly levered up behind the scenes over the last decade, and now they will have to pay the bill for the earnings they were fronted. Their investment gains were essentially brought forward.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/househo ... -says.html

Not so fast!!!

[Smith1776]

Off topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.


A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.

[vnatale]

Off topic: I saw this thread was revived and then saw Sophie's avatar. Now, I miss Sophie.


A few words about Peter Schiff, given that's he's the subject matter here. I think he's long-term right about his bet on gold and international assets, but I think his attempt at guessing the timing for the macroeconomic future is misguided. Browne had the better idea: nothing turns out as expected.

I know that you are one of the younger ones here but your appreciation of this underscores how you have always been one of the wisest ones among us!

[mathjak107]

Are the goldbugs so wrong? If im reading this right GLD has outperformed the market for ~15 years

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf ... 2%3A955%7D

Not according to portfolio visualizer…I did asset backtest , us stock market vs gold .

Gold has beaten equities over the last 20 years according to portfolio visualizer… I put in 2002 to 2022 .

However the last 15 shows gold missing badly I put in 2007 to 2022

It also has gold lagging the 10 and 5 year too .

Going out 25 years to 1997 shows gold lagging badly as well

So it is only that one date range which is the sweet spot , around 20 years that shows gold beating equities