The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by johnnywitt » Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:24 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:06 am
Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.
Yeah, Schiff is also very very certain that he's right all the time. This is a big red flag for me.

So, what, might I ask, did you "move on" to?
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Matthew19 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:37 pm

The thing with Schiff, he nailed the downside predictions of 2007, and at the same time his clients lost huge amounts.

Schiff is a great Austrian economist with a quick whit, but that doesn’t make him a good investor. He is a good business man, because he’s figured out how to sell low returns for high fees. His gold stock portfolio cost me a small fortune.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:44 pm

Matthew19 wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:37 pm
The thing with Schiff, he nailed the downside predictions of 2007, and at the same time his clients lost huge amounts.

Schiff is a great Austrian economist with a quick whit, but that doesn’t make him a good investor. He is a good business man, because he’s figured out how to sell low returns for high fees. His gold stock portfolio cost me a small fortune.
Yeah, it’s just like Harry Browne said, when someone nails a prediction they can “dine out on it for the rest of their lives.”

Schiff’s rhetorical strategy is to say “Yes we underperformed, but that’s because those other assets are in a bubble. When the bubble pops my strategy will outperform.”
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:49 pm

Having said that, I respect Shiff’s general contrarian position, and his willingness to say that the emperor (US dollar) has no clothes.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by vnatale » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:10 pm

Matthew19 wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:37 pm

The thing with Schiff, he nailed the downside predictions of 2007, and at the same time his clients lost huge amounts.

Schiff is a great Austrian economist with a quick whit, but that doesn’t make him a good investor. He is a good business man, because he’s figured out how to sell low returns for high fees. His gold stock portfolio cost me a small fortune.


Good one!
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:52 pm

Schiff is entertaining and makes great points and he often uses very simple ideas to get his point across (IMHO) but I wound not give him any money.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by jalanlong » Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:33 pm

johnnywitt wrote:
Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:24 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:06 am
Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.
Yeah, Schiff is also very very certain that he's right all the time. This is a big red flag for me.

So, what, might I ask, did you "move on" to?
To be fair, how many financial commentators with their own shows are not certain that they are right? That is kinda what people pay to hear. Nobody wants to hear a financial commentator say they have no idea what is going to happen.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by johnnywitt » Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:50 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:33 pm
johnnywitt wrote:
Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:24 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:06 am
Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.
Yeah, Schiff is also very very certain that he's right all the time. This is a big red flag for me.

So, what, might I ask, did you "move on" to?
To be fair, how many financial commentators with their own shows are not certain that they are right? That is kinda what people pay to hear. Nobody wants to hear a financial commentator say they have no idea what is going to happen.
IMO, Schiff is right about Gold in that everyone could probably benefit from owning Gold in their portfolio. Once you've educated yourself though, my idea is that you're probably better off getting away from the Financial Talking Heads and pick a portfolio & stick with that allocation.
For VP & Speculators though, maybe it's best to seek out all the information you can & listen to everyone that you can. This is what I do.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by jalanlong » Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:47 pm

johnnywitt wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 4:50 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:33 pm
johnnywitt wrote:
Wed Jan 11, 2023 3:24 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:06 am
Schiff's problem is the same one that afflicts a lot of others. Ideologically based investing is dangerous. Schiff has drunk deep from the Austrian School's kool-aid and is a confirmed gold bug. Once upon a time I was there as well. But I've moved on.
Yeah, Schiff is also very very certain that he's right all the time. This is a big red flag for me.

So, what, might I ask, did you "move on" to?
To be fair, how many financial commentators with their own shows are not certain that they are right? That is kinda what people pay to hear. Nobody wants to hear a financial commentator say they have no idea what is going to happen.
IMO, Schiff is right about Gold in that everyone could probably benefit from owning Gold in their portfolio. Once you've educated yourself though, my idea is that you're probably better off getting away from the Financial Talking Heads and pick a portfolio & stick with that allocation.
For VP & Speculators though, maybe it's best to seek out all the information you can & listen to everyone that you can. This is what I do.
It took me a while to figure that out as well. I finally landed on just a portfolio of old-fashioned, conservative dividend stocks. For whatever reason I can sleep at night with my money in those knowing that they are churning out dividends for me each month so I can (sort of) ignore the price swings. After you do lots of reading and studying, you eventually have to come to a conclusion and stick with it. I figure if stodgy utility, consumer staple and railroad stocks go under then there probably isn't much that is going to save me anyway.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:17 pm

That is false logic .

Dividends are withdrawals like any other withdrawal .

Withdrawals are always dependent on portfolio values …

It is total returns and the sequence of returns that determine withdrawals and withdrawal success rates , not whether the company makes the withdrawals for you or you do it yourself off a portfolio.

To think one is magically immune to market downturns when taking withdrawals via dividends is a myth.

Withdrawals don’t care if they are from yield , appreciation or a combination…their sustainability is alway based on portfolio value
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by jalanlong » Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:17 pm
That is false logic .

Dividends are withdrawals like any other withdrawal .

Withdrawals are always dependent on portfolio values …

It is total returns and the sequence of returns that determine withdrawals and withdrawal success rates , not whether the company makes the withdrawals for you or you do it yourself off a portfolio.

To think one is magically immune to market downturns when taking withdrawals via dividends is a myth.

Withdrawals don’t care if they are from yield , appreciation or a combination…their sustainability is alway based on portfolio value
I never said that dividend stocks are immune to market downturns. My post indicated that I can sleep better at night knowing that the dividends are coming my way and I do not have to sell off the stocks to get income. I understand that is a bit of a shell game but psychologically it helps me hold on to my stocks during downturns. I envision myself as the part owner of those businesses in which I own stock. I take in the cash flow they pay to me and pay little to no attention to the market price because I have no intention of selling.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:33 pm

But your investment is being d sold off ..every dividend has your portfolio value reduced by the same amount paid out .

The company selling off a piece of your share price is no different than you selling equal dollars off your portfolio via share or piece of a share since you can now buy and sell fractional shares at most brokerages .

Both will have the same balance left compounding going forward by markets .

A 100k investment and a 10% dividend leaves you 90k left after the mandatory set back before it can trade .if markets doubled your money you have 180k and 10k in hand .

Anyone buying in with 90k after it went ex div has the same 180k

Taking 10k out of a 100k portfolio leaves you 90k compounding .

If markets doubled you have 180k and 10k in hand .

You have the exact same results if markets fell
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Xan » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:08 pm

There's not anything wrong with applying some investor psychology to yourself and realizing that you appreciate dividends and that they help you ignore price swings.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:14 pm

Oh boy.

HEY GUYS. Who do you think would win a fist fight between Peter Schiff and Harry Dent?????
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by jalanlong » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:23 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:33 pm
But your investment is being d sold off ..every dividend has your portfolio value reduced by the same amount paid out .

The company selling off a piece of your share price is no different than you selling equal dollars off your portfolio via share or piece of a share since you can now buy and sell fractional shares at most brokerages .

Both will have the same balance left compounding going forward by markets .

A 100k investment and a 10% dividend leaves you 90k left after the mandatory set back before it can trade .if markets doubled your money you have 180k and 10k in hand .

Anyone buying in with 90k after it went ex div has the same 180k

Taking 10k out of a 100k portfolio leaves you 90k compounding .

If markets doubled you have 180k and 10k in hand .

You have the exact same results if markets fell
I am aware of the theory of dividend irrelevance. However, research indicates that when the book closing date draws near, the price of stocks that pay dividends to shareholders frequently increases by the payout amount. Even if the price falls after the dividend has been paid, many investors who want dividends hold on to the stocks because of the reliable payouts they provide, which fosters an underpinning level of demand. Dividends signal to certain investors that the company is stable. And there are a group of investors who like the cash in hand instead of hoping for a rising stock price in the future (known by academics as the near vs distant dividend).

For me, it makes my decision making easy. I buy a stock and I am done. It throws me dividends and I forget about it. I don't have to think about when to sell, how much to sell, is it a good time to sell, should I sell before a market downturn etc. It removes all of the possible bad choices I could make emotionally. I have one decision. I buy the stock and then hold on as it generates income for myself and hopefully my family after I am gone. Neither myself or my family has to do anything about it from that point on. I see myself as a business owner getting a rising stream of income from the various businesses I own. I realize it is a bit of a psychological trick but it works for me.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:27 pm

I personally think Schiff would win because he’s quite a bit younger.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:48 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:23 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:33 pm
But your investment is being d sold off ..every dividend has your portfolio value reduced by the same amount paid out .

The company selling off a piece of your share price is no different than you selling equal dollars off your portfolio via share or piece of a share since you can now buy and sell fractional shares at most brokerages .

Both will have the same balance left compounding going forward by markets .

A 100k investment and a 10% dividend leaves you 90k left after the mandatory set back before it can trade .if markets doubled your money you have 180k and 10k in hand .

Anyone buying in with 90k after it went ex div has the same 180k

Taking 10k out of a 100k portfolio leaves you 90k compounding .

If markets doubled you have 180k and 10k in hand .

You have the exact same results if markets fell
I am aware of the theory of dividend irrelevance. However, research indicates that when the book closing date draws near, the price of stocks that pay dividends to shareholders frequently increases by the payout amount. Even if the price falls after the dividend has been paid, many investors who want dividends hold on to the stocks because of the reliable payouts they provide, which fosters an underpinning level of demand. Dividends signal to certain investors that the company is stable. And there are a group of investors who like the cash in hand instead of hoping for a rising stock price in the future (known by academics as the near vs distant dividend).

For me, it makes my decision making easy. I buy a stock and I am done. It throws me dividends and I forget about it. I don't have to think about when to sell, how much to sell, is it a good time to sell, should I sell before a market downturn etc. It removes all of the possible bad choices I could make emotionally. I have one decision. I buy the stock and then hold on as it generates income for myself and hopefully my family after I am gone. Neither myself or my family has to do anything about it from that point on. I see myself as a business owner getting a rising stream of income from the various businesses I own. I realize it is a bit of a psychological trick but it works for me.
Just think of a mutual fund .

You go to sleep with 100k and next morning have 90k and 10k in hand …no matter what markets do it’s on just 90k .

Studies also show that the thinking called buying the dividend is purely random and really does not move like people think .

But the fact is making a withdrawal of that dividend will always leave you behind the curve vs leaving that money intact .

Put that 10k back in to the investment and you simply have the same 100k you had working for you .

You are taking the same 10k out regardless if in a dividend or from your portfolio.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Feb 08, 2023 8:49 pm

But who knows? Maybe Dent keeps himself in better shape?
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:01 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 6:08 pm
There's not anything wrong with applying some investor psychology to yourself and realizing that you appreciate dividends and that they help you ignore price swings.
Except what You have is called the empowers new clothes …

While investor mental behavior is a good thing , believing one’s own bull shit is another .

Mentally I like my buckets , but I know damn well they anre adding nothing financial to the equation, it is just a mental thing.

But I wouldn’t argue the fact that they are financially adding some financial advantage

Knowing something is not adding a benefit and doing it is very different than believing financially there is a non existent benefit.

Just look at a fund when it pays out , it is a non event …you had x amount being compounded when you went to sleep .

Next morning you have that much less invested in that fund available for compounding …..if you reinvest it then you have the same amount working for you that you did the day before .

It’s a net gain wash …all that happened is your share price was sold off ….it is dollars invested that gets compounded , not number of shares .

Which is why stock splits are a wash

Dividends are just a withdrawal from your existing investment ..it doesn’t come from the air .

It comes from forced selling by the company of your investment …it is no different than any of us selling in a downturn on our own .

This is one of the most misunderstood aspects of investing it seems….you are always behind the curve taking dividends then you would be if you gave them back the money they gave you because taking dividends are a withdrawal method.

They are just as effected by price movement as any other investment…there is no such thing as it doesn’t count
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:52 am

So as an example of why there is no such thing as you recover the dividend pulled out.

Look at xom , Exxon since 2000

With dividends put back, you have your original amount back after each payment is taken out , so you have 10k worth 59,082 today .

If we spend those dividends you have 28,800 .

You can’t make up withdrawals ever .

All compounding is always working on what balance we start with and each reduction in price is starting you off with markets acting on less dollars than you had pre ex div

So while markets go up they are acting on less dollars each time than you had.

It is identical to pulling the same dollars out of your portfolio at any point in time , whether you think you are selling or not when the company does it for you.

While dividends are unavoidable because 80% of the s&p pays them and 100% of the Dow they don’t mean you are gaining a thing when you get them in a down market , it is the same results as you generating the same income on your own .

Except the dividends have a poor tax method ….you are taxed on that whole amount paid …the same income from a portfolio is only taxed on the gain portion
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by vnatale » Thu Feb 09, 2023 6:57 am

All solid points.

Thanks mathjak!
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 09, 2023 8:49 am

It is amazing how the getting paid to wait myth just doesn’t die..

Every retiree that draws an income is getting paid regardless of markets but every penny spent means that much less being acted on by markets because like any money coming out there is a price to pay for that withdrawal…markets always compound your balances .

The fact a stock can go back to its pre div price neglects the fact you don’t have as much being acted on in dollars and at the end of the day it’s our portfolio dollars that are compounded up or down a certain percentage.

You can see how spending those dividends have impacted your balance left over the years
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by Xan » Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:34 am

I don't see anybody saying that the value of a stock wouldn't be higher if the company didn't pay a dividend. Except of course for all the dividend investors who would dump it.

I also don't think there's a thing wrong with a company being an engine that throws off money. That is, after all, the point.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by jalanlong » Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:49 am

Xan wrote:
Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:34 am
I don't see anybody saying that the value of a stock wouldn't be higher if the company didn't pay a dividend. Except of course for all the dividend investors who would dump it.

I also don't think there's a thing wrong with a company being an engine that throws off money. That is, after all, the point.
Thank you for confirming that at no point did I indicate that dividends are "free" money. Never at ANY point did I ever write that. I simply prefer to get the dividends because I do not have to think about selling the stocks on my own and (perhaps more importantly) my family, who has no interest in investing, could continue to live off of them if something happened to me. If they had a portfolio of non-dividend stocks and had to worry about selling them periodically to create income, I am fairly certain they would end up just selling everything and going to cash because they have no interest in managing investments. So dividends work well for me in my circumstances. Plus the "safer "type of stocks I tend to purchase such as utilities, consumer staples and the like tend to be high dividend payers anyway.
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Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:54 am

…just because a person may have a portfolio of non div payers why are you assuming they would be selling equities in a down market ?

If someone is generating income it is highly unlikely they are 100% equities or they would have to have nerves of steel ..highly unlikely the same person is selling everything in a downturn any retirees you know are 100% equities and living off it ?

It isn’t equities that would be sold , regardless in a down market ,to generate cash flow.. it would be what didn’t fall or fell the least

And no , someone cannot arbitrarily live off a portfolio of dividend payers and just blindly spend the dividends .

Look at trying to spend 5% from higher yielding stocks like an AT&T .

Over a typical retirement frame they would have been broke over and over with such a high draw and such poor appreciation.

It all boils down back to safe withdrawal rates and safe withdrawal rates are based on portfolio value and sequences , not the yield that is spun off in isolation..

Retirees have been generating income via rebalancing standard portfolios forever .

I don’t live off dividends directly .

Dividends in the retirement accounts get reinvested .

Dividends in the taxable account go into a bucket for next years spending .

With dividends and fund distributions all over the map it is to hard to live hand to mouth .

I find it easier to buffer the dividends and then each year just REBALANCE the portfolio to fill the shortfalls in cash at years end for The following year…

In Up or down markets creating cash flow is the same thing and whether that cash is coming from rebalancing ,, dividends , interest and appreciation is irrelevant….it is all the same as well as mentally the same since it is a diversified portfolio and what is down the most is never what gets sold .

If anything the dividends are a forced equity sale you can’t control , where as in a portfolio one can sell bonds or what went up .

The divided liquidates a piece of your invested capital in that issue and hands it back to you . It is just done with a share price liquidation instead of a share liquidation ..

Your balance you had invested is just as sold off either way ….

It’s no different then a stock split or stock reversal being a wash .

Think about that very carefully
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