What have we learned over last 10 years?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Thomas Hoog
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by Thomas Hoog » Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:06 am

Agree, you can vary your allocations but after that you have to stick to it to make it work.
The funny thing is, I have 17 years PP experience (I have a 20 % Gold allocation) and I did my calculations this weekend (I do that quarterly).
And beside the 13 % yield Year to Day, really not normal !, the markets are nuts.
Over 17 years the bruto yield is about 6 %, (cash about 4%, bonds and Gold about 8 % and Stocks about 6 %). So Gold is more that just an asset against catastrophe, it did yield very well.
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sophie
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by sophie » Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:49 am

You've been using the PP for 17 years?? Wow, there is a story there if you want to tell it? 17 years ago there were not a lot of people on that bandwagon.

That's the kind of long view I hope to have about 12 years from now. It's a refreshing perspective, compared to loading up on angst over the performance of this or that single asset for the past year, or even few years.
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Smith1776
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 pm

I'm a PP youngin'. I really only discovered it and got into it around 2016/2017. A large part of me finds that unfortunate, as I completely missed the original epic thread on the Bogleheads forum, in addition to being able to interact with MediumTex and craigr. I'm currently watching one of Craig's YouTube videos on computer security. Super compelling stuff.

Anywho, in regard to the PP, I can still look at past data and old forums posts.

My take on the past 10 years of the PP is that the PP is to asset allocation, as indexing is to individual stocks.

We don't know which companies are going to do better than others. Unexpected things happen all the time. We index the stock market as a concession of our inability to predict the future. The PP is exactly the same concept applied to asset allocation. We like to think we can predict the future of asset classes, but we can't. Being confident about the future is not the same thing as knowing the future. And even if you end up being right about the future, it seldom happens on the timeline that you wanted/expected.

When friends and family ask me for investing advice, I always tell them to start with the PP and go from there.
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by dualstow » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:26 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 pm
I'm a PP youngin'. I really only discovered it and got into it around 2016/2017. A large part of me finds that unfortunate, as I completely missed the original epic thread on the Bogleheads forum, in addition to being able to interact with MediumTex and craigr.
That is kind of sad that they don’t post anymore. MediumTex was fun!
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Smith1776
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:57 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 pm
I'm a PP youngin'. I really only discovered it and got into it around 2016/2017. A large part of me finds that unfortunate, as I completely missed the original epic thread on the Bogleheads forum, in addition to being able to interact with MediumTex and craigr.
That is kind of sad that they don’t post anymore. MediumTex was fun!
Definitely. Some of those old forum posts of his were very insightful, even with the passage of time.

I wonder if both Craig and Tex are still PP users...
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by pmward » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:49 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:57 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:28 pm
I'm a PP youngin'. I really only discovered it and got into it around 2016/2017. A large part of me finds that unfortunate, as I completely missed the original epic thread on the Bogleheads forum, in addition to being able to interact with MediumTex and craigr.
That is kind of sad that they don’t post anymore. MediumTex was fun!
Definitely. Some of those old forum posts of his were very insightful, even with the passage of time.

I wonder if both Craig and Tex are still PP users...
If you look at Craig's post history, his last post was only a couple years ago and he said he had just rebalanced and was still in.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by Thomas Hoog » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:49 am

sophie wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:49 am
You've been using the PP for 17 years?? Wow, there is a story there if you want to tell it? 17 years ago there were not a lot of people on that bandwagon.

That's the kind of long view I hope to have about 12 years from now. It's a refreshing perspective, compared to loading up on angst over the performance of this or that single asset for the past year, or even few years.
Well, a boring story just as the PP strategy. After the crash in 2001, I was looking for a more stable strategy and I came in contact with the Belgium Marc de Mesel (he was on this forum also) and he told me about Harry Browne which made much sense to me. So I switched to a PP protfolio. Marc went on with Bitcoins (He is good) , don't know what he doing right now. I stayed with the PP.
During the years, I changed from 4x25 to 10 % cash, 20 % gold, 30 % LTB, 40 % equities because of the low yield and I have a high risk-appetite.
The most intriguing observations:
How low the yield on bonds can get; I think for almost 17 years, Yield on Bonds must go up but they still get lower and lower and lower.
My X-mass predictions of the next investing year are always wrong.
The impossibility to convince friends and family, no matter the results, they don't get convinced about the PP strategy.
I think that choosing an investing strategy is not a rational decision. It is based on your personality. There was a Briggs-Meijer test here on the forum and there was significant majority of the INTP-type. So if you are a INTP type you might like the PP strategy, if you are not, you prefer an other strategy. We are all just humans.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by craigr » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:17 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:57 pm
Definitely. Some of those old forum posts of his were very insightful, even with the passage of time.

I wonder if both Craig and Tex are still PP users...
I heard he bailed out a long time ago after banking his book profits in the Bahamas.

Yeah, I still use the portfolio. Sadly, a few months back I had to sell down some bonds to buy some real estate and now they've gone through the roof! But otherwise, still stocks, gold, cash and less bonds that I want right now.

Hope everyone is doing well.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:19 pm

craigr wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:17 pm
Hope everyone is doing well.
Doing well. Thank you for making a lot of lives much better.
Mark
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by AdamA » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:20 pm

Wow! A post from Craig. This is better than the time Satoshi Nakamoto emailed me!
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:22 pm

This is an embarrassment of riches. O0
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
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Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

Post by craigr » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:23 pm

The truth is I've been extremely busy on my start-up and have no time to look at investment stuff much. I check my portfolio maybe quarterly for tax planning reasons. I don't read any investment news, but watching the headlines pop up over and over about stock market highs gives me that 2000 feeling all over again.

Keep your powder dry!
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