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Another solid January
Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:47 pm
by Pet Hog
I've been fully invested in the PP since May 2013 and I keep a monthly spreadsheet of my performance. I noticed that each of the last six Januaries has had excellent (relative to PP standards) performance (up at least 1.2%), including this one just ended. So I wondered whether it is a feature of the PP in general. Here are some numbers (adjusted closes from Yahoo Finance) of the nominal January returns of an all-ETF PP (actual gold spot prices for the first entry). For these 16 years, there have been just four negative Januaries, with the average return of the PP in January being 1.08%, and with gold (+3.34% on average) being the most significant contributor -- stocks the least. Enough data to speculate on a cunning PP strategy? Regardless, I'm delighted with 2019 so far!
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VTI TLT GLD SHY PP
Dec 31, 2003 39.86 50.24 417.25 63.57
Jan 31, 2004 40.90 51.18 399.75 63.64
2.61% 1.87% (4.19%) 0.11% 0.10%
Dec 31, 2004 44.96 54.62 43.80 63.99
Jan 31, 2005 43.83 56.57 42.22 63.97
(2.51%) 3.57% (3.61%) (0.03%) (0.65%)
Dec 31, 2005 47.79 59.31 51.58 64.97
Jan 31, 2006 49.33 58.52 56.70 65.08
3.22% (1.33%) 9.93% 0.17% 3.00%
Dec 31, 2006 55.29 59.73 63.21 67.50
Jan 31, 2007 56.32 59.14 64.83 67.61
1.86% (0.99%) 2.56% 0.16% 0.90%
Dec 31, 2007 58.26 65.89 82.46 72.46
Jan 31, 2008 54.67 67.27 91.40 73.66
(6.16%) 2.09% 10.84% 1.66% 2.11%
Dec 31, 2008 36.71 88.26 86.52 77.26
Jan 31, 2009 33.76 76.72 91.31 76.92
(8.04%) (13.08%) 5.54% (0.44%) (4.00%)
Dec 31, 2009 47.32 69.01 107.31 77.53
Jan 31, 2010 45.64 70.87 105.96 78.15
(3.55%) 2.70% (1.26%) 0.80% (0.33%)
Dec 31, 2010 55.57 75.23 138.72 79.30
Jan 31, 2011 56.71 72.91 129.87 79.40
2.05% (3.08%) (6.38%) 0.13% (1.82%)
Dec 31, 2011 56.11 100.81 151.99 80.44
Jan 31, 2012 58.95 100.48 169.31 80.51
5.06% (0.33%) 11.40% 0.09% 4.05%
Dec 31, 2012 65.34 103.24 162.02 80.64
Jan 31, 2013 68.88 99.95 161.20 80.65
5.42% (3.19%) (0.51%) 0.01% 0.43%
Dec 31, 2013 87.20 89.43 116.12 80.82
Jan 31, 2014 84.43 95.06 120.09 80.98
(3.18%) 6.30% 3.42% 0.20% 1.68%
Dec 31, 2014 98.14 113.84 113.58 81.18
Jan 31, 2015 95.45 125.02 123.45 81.69
(2.74%) 9.82% 8.69% 0.63% 4.10%
Dec 31, 2015 98.49 111.80 101.46 81.53
Jan 31, 2016 92.85 118.03 106.95 82.06
(5.73%) 5.57% 5.41% 0.65% 1.48%
Dec 31, 2016 111.11 113.11 109.61 82.20
Jan 31, 2017 113.17 114.03 115.55 82.29
1.85% 0.81% 5.42% 0.11% 2.05%
Dec 31, 2017 134.68 123.50 123.65 82.41
Jan 31, 2018 141.73 119.48 127.65 82.18
5.23% (3.26%) 3.23% (0.28%) 1.23%
Dec 31, 2018 127.63 121.51 121.25 83.62
Jan 31, 2019 138.53 121.97 124.75 83.83
8.54% 0.38% 2.89% 0.25% 3.01%
AVERAGE 0.25% 0.49% 3.34% 0.26% 1.08%
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:29 pm
by Pet Hog
If January is a good month, what about the others? I've gone through the data month by month and here are the results for the past 15 years (some months have only 14 years of data). I've used only the EFT closing prices for VTI, TLT, GLD, and SHY, but not the spot price for gold, so there's one less month here averaged for January than the number I posted yesterday.
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Month Average return Rolling 3 month Rolling 6 month Rolling 9 month
January 1.15% 0.64% 0.47% 0.56%
February 0.56% 0.56% 0.42% 0.41%
March 0.21% 0.39% 0.50% 0.46%
April 0.92% 0.29% 0.52% 0.49%
May 0.04% 0.27% 0.34% 0.51%
June (0.07%) 0.61% 0.49% 0.57%
July 0.86% 0.74% 0.58% 0.60%
August 1.04% 0.40% 0.63% 0.61%
September 0.34% 0.38% 0.55% 0.50%
October (0.18%) 0.42% 0.53% 0.45%
November 0.98% 0.86% 0.71% 0.57%
December 0.46% 0.72% 0.56% 0.57%
Average month 0.52%
Annualized 6.47%
As was my hunch, January has been the best PP month (these are nominal returns, not real). Also notable are April (0.92%), July (0.86%), August (1.04%), and November (0.98%). The poorest months have been May (0.04%), June (-0.07%), and October (-0.18%).
The other three columns provide the average rolling returns (not compounded, just averaged) beginning with the listed month; for example, the average rolling 3-month return starting in January (that is, December 31 to March 31) was 0.64%. The best 3-month period for the PP since 2004/2005 was November to January; best 6 months, November to April; best 9 months, August to April.
Using these numbers to make some predictions, the next three months should give a slightly above average PP return (0.56%/mo), but the next six (0.42%/mo) and nine (0.41%/mo) should be below average. One good PP strategy would have been to avoid May and June entirely (go 100% cash). But I'm not providing financial advice!
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:33 pm
by dualstow
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
by Cortopassi
Up 4.37% currently.
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:00 am
by jacksonM
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
Up 4.37% currently.
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
Don't know what I'm up YTD but I'm at exactly the same place I was last January when I re-balanced so I can revise my ROI using the GB last year from a 2.9% loss to a 0% gain.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:19 pm
by Pet Hog
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that.
Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:44 pm
by buddtholomew
Pet Hog wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:19 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:09 am
A big part of me wants to move everything into SHV or some 2.2% money market for the rest of the year and call it done for 2019!
I'm with you! That's what I was sort of hinting at with my post. After last year's loss, I'd be happy with 4% ytd and adding on 2.5% extra with an 11-month treasury. But with regression toward the mean I hope the PP has a better year than that.
Years than that. Anyway, I'm done with market-timing, but it's fun to dream.
A little extreme to sell to cash
Personally, I feel the same way as both of you.
Well within tolerance bands, so really no action to take.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:34 pm
by I Shrugged
I sold a bunch of GLD in December, to take gains which will offset a loss on a sale of something else. Of course, I didn't go buy gold at Texas Bullion Depository or some other place as I had intended, because gold has been going nowhere, so why rush? Of course....
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:10 pm
by dualstow
You sold gold at a gain? I feel like a very thirsty guy in the desert looking up at someone drinking a jug of Poland Spring.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:30 pm
by I Shrugged
I bought it in late 2008 or early 2009. Since then I've felt stuck in GLD because of the tax hit for taking a gain. But I happened to have a loss on something in 2018, so I was able to get some of it out.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
by Pet Hog
January did it again.
Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.
VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58
PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
by Don
MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Pet Hog wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
January did it again.
Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.
VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58
PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
by Pet Hog
Don wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:36 pm
by Pet Hog
Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change.
VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33%
TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63%
GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22%
SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02%
PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79%
A negative January -- a first for me since I started PP investing in May 2013. November and December were great PP months, so things have averaged out well recently. I was slightly overweight stocks and underweight bonds, so my loss in January was a little less, about -1.5%.
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:24 pm
by dualstow
Pet Hog, you're our madsinger!
Re: Another solid January
Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:58 am
by Vil
Pet Hog wrote: ↑Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:36 pm
Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change.
VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33%
TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63%
GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22%
SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02%
PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79%
A negative January -- a first for me since I started PP investing in May 2013. November and December were great PP months, so things have averaged out well recently. I was slightly overweight stocks and underweight bonds, so my loss in January was a little less, about -1.5%.
Seems the boat is slowly changing the direction (or not knowing which direction to take, IMHO
), so we are in one of those all negative periods... Personally, in the middle of Jan I've done my annual contribution to all assets, so hope I got at least a bit of discount ...
