2018 Results Post Here

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Cortopassi
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:40 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:24 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:57 am
Good indications that being closer to the 25% cash percentage was a good place to be for 2018.
According to my own results with the Golden Butterfly 40% stock allocation - posted above, SCV was the saving grace of my portfolio, being up 9.5% while everything else was down slightly except for other stocks which were down big time.

Nobody should take that to the bank however, because I'm skeptical myself at this point and need to take a harder look at the figures when I feel so inclined.
VBR, which I use for SCV, was down significantly, in the 14%+ range. Not sure what you are using for small cap value?
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by jacksonM » Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:44 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:40 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:24 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:57 am
Good indications that being closer to the 25% cash percentage was a good place to be for 2018.
According to my own results with the Golden Butterfly 40% stock allocation - posted above, SCV was the saving grace of my portfolio, being up 9.5% while everything else was down slightly except for other stocks which were down big time.

Nobody should take that to the bank however, because I'm skeptical myself at this point and need to take a harder look at the figures when I feel so inclined.
VBR, which I use for SCV, was down significantly, in the 14%+ range. Not sure what you are using for small cap value?
We use VSIAX and VBR. Now that I think about it, the increase in value probably came from making our yearly contributions to our Roth accounts and my wife's ongoing 401 contributions. Like I said in the post, don't take the figure as ROI.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm

jacksonM, you don't happen to live in Beardstown, do you?
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by jacksonM » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:30 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm
jacksonM, you don't happen to live in Beardstown, do you?
Never heard of it.
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Cortopassi
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:58 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:30 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm
jacksonM, you don't happen to live in Beardstown, do you?
Never heard of it.
The Beardstown Ladies is a group of older women who formed an investment club, formally known as the Beardstown Business and Professional Women's Investment Club, in Beardstown, Illinois, USA.[1]

Founded in 1983, the group achieved fame for their stock market acumen, claiming investment returns of more than 23.4% per year from their inception through 1994. They received considerable attention in national media outlets, and authored a best-selling book, The Beardstown Ladies' Common-Sense Investment Guide, following it up with four more books.[1]

In 1995, personal finance counselor and author (Personal Finance for Dummies, Investing for Dummies) Eric Tyson wrote an article in the San Francisco Chronicle exposing the fact that this club did not have any documentation or audit to back up their claimed investment returns.[citation needed]

In 1998, an article in Chicago magazine asserted that the group's stated returns had included the new investments made by its members, and that when computed in conventional fashion, their annual rate of return for 1984–1993 was actually 9.1%, considerably less than the 14.9% return on the S&P 500 during the same period.[1] Outside auditor Price Waterhouse, hired by the club, confirmed the sub-par 9.1% annual rate for 1984–1993. The auditor also discovered the Beardstown Ladies' annualized return was 15.3% when all of 1983–1997 was included; this was better than the average stock fund at the time, but still worse than the S&P 500 return of 17.2% for the same period.[2]

This revelation led to a class action lawsuit against their publisher (Hyperion, a division of Disney), which settled the case by offering to swap the books for other Hyperion books.[1]

As of 2018, the club still existed and was still investing.[1]
jacksonM
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by jacksonM » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:24 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:58 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:30 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm
jacksonM, you don't happen to live in Beardstown, do you?
Never heard of it.
The Beardstown Ladies is a group of older women who formed an investment club, formally known as the Beardstown Business and Professional Women's Investment Club, in Beardstown, Illinois, USA.[1]

Founded in 1983, the group achieved fame for their stock market acumen, claiming investment returns of more than 23.4% per year from their inception through 1994. They received considerable attention in national media outlets, and authored a best-selling book, The Beardstown Ladies' Common-Sense Investment Guide, following it up with four more books.[1]

In 1995, personal finance counselor and author (Personal Finance for Dummies, Investing for Dummies) Eric Tyson wrote an article in the San Francisco Chronicle exposing the fact that this club did not have any documentation or audit to back up their claimed investment returns.[citation needed]

In 1998, an article in Chicago magazine asserted that the group's stated returns had included the new investments made by its members, and that when computed in conventional fashion, their annual rate of return for 1984–1993 was actually 9.1%, considerably less than the 14.9% return on the S&P 500 during the same period.[1] Outside auditor Price Waterhouse, hired by the club, confirmed the sub-par 9.1% annual rate for 1984–1993. The auditor also discovered the Beardstown Ladies' annualized return was 15.3% when all of 1983–1997 was included; this was better than the average stock fund at the time, but still worse than the S&P 500 return of 17.2% for the same period.[2]

This revelation led to a class action lawsuit against their publisher (Hyperion, a division of Disney), which settled the case by offering to swap the books for other Hyperion books.[1]

As of 2018, the club still existed and was still investing.[1]
Actually, now that you have explained it I do remember hearing about the Beardstown Ladies. I remember there was an investment group at one of my first employers back in the 80's that was trying to follow in their footsteps.

In my defense, I did post the disclaimer that my figures should not be taken as ROI. Maybe I should have taken the time to calculate the real ROI but for one thing I'm too lazy and for another it doesn't make much difference to me. I was just happy to see that the overall portfolio hadn't fallen below what was my original retirement goal given the current state of affairs.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:16 pm

Image
Thomas Hoog
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Thomas Hoog » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:55 am

European PP: -0,4 %
My own version with 40 % global equities: -1,1 %.
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by johntaylor » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:45 am

European PP: -1.5%
35% cash: 0%
22% bond: 5.2%
22% gold: 0.6%
22% stock: -12.7%

stock: msci Europe
bond: 50% exx6 etf 50% e20y etf
gold: 90% gold, 10% silver

IE00BSKRJX20 E20Y etf
DE000A0D8Q31 EXX6 etf
NL0010436671 msci Europe

It is my first year on a PP and I started it in the second week of 2018. I am not really satisfied so far :-\ But at least I made a better return then my pension fund made in 2018 (-2.3%) :)
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Cortopassi
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:51 pm

2019 returns right now almost negate all my 2018 loss. Interesting, and hope it is not a nasty January fluke, to disappear over the course of the year!
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by bigamish » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:56 pm

Golden Butterfly Results: -2.78% (including dividends)
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Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Post by tarentola » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:29 pm

My Euro PP: -1.41%

A generic Euro PP of four ETFs:
CEU -12.14% MSCI Europe Index
MTH 5.29% 25+year bonds
GBS 3.09% Gold
C13 -0.33% 1-3 year bonds
Combined -1.02%

Interesting that the best performer in Europe was long bonds, which many people (including me) thought should be abandoned because of rising interest rates. Illustrates the logic of the PP I suppose.

Since 1 Jan 2019, the generic four-ETF Euro PP has recovered and is up 3%.
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