Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Smith1776
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Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:42 pm

Hello my fellow PPers!

A number of months ago I posted about resurrecting Craig's old Crawling Road website. I hit a few life snags in the interim that took me out of commission for a while, so I didn't start on the project as soon as I had hoped.

However, I have now started the project. I would like the new website to be a kind of main "repository" for Permanent Portfolio information, as well as a fairly regular blog in terms of how the PP relates to current events, our lives, and even underlying philosophy. What I'm basically thinking of is Craig's old website but bigger and even better.

You can guys can check out the design and layout so far here:

https://www.gyroscopicportfolios.com/about/

https://www.gyroscopicportfolios.com/ha ... adio-show/

I'd really enjoy your guys feedback about what you'd like to see regarding a PP dedicated website as I move forward. Here's some ideas I have.

- Regular blog posts about recent PP performance
- A page dedicated to explaining the overall strategy
- Model implementations of the PP that are country specific with real world funds
- Links to the original epic PP thread at Bogleheads
- A page for PP books and links to the Voluntary Life interviews done with Medium Tex and CraigR
- A page for related sites like this forum and maybe the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds
- A section explaining PP history and how it has evolved.
- An "editorial" section where people from this forum can contribute. (or maybe they can just make blog posts and I can credit them.)
- A section with insightful posts from "thought leaders" in the PP community. (too similar to above?)
- A section for related portfolios that are also gyroscopic in nature such as Ray Dalio's All Seasons portfolio
- Variable portfolio ideas

That's all I can think of for now. Your feedback on what you'd like to see is verrry much appreciated. O0
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ochotona
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:30 pm

It's always more useful to have performance graphs with a logarithmic scale...
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:42 am

Agreed. The change has been made.
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am

Nice-looking website, Smith!
👍
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:13 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am
Nice-looking website, Smith!
I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period.

Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site:

http://www.stableinvesting.com/2011/04/ ... hmark.html

Alas, Ryan hasn't been updating that site so the data only goes through 2011 or so.
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:08 pm

barrett wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am
Nice-looking website, Smith!
I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period.

Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site:

http://www.stableinvesting.com/2011/04/ ... hmark.html

Alas, Ryan hasn't been updating that site so the data only goes through 2011 or so.
Thanks everyone for your comments so far. I've done some updates to the site that you can checkout in addition to a maiden post.

I've integrated your guys' feedback in regards to real returns. 8)
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Don » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:28 pm

barrett wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am
Nice-looking website, Smith!
I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period.

Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site:

http://www.stableinvesting.com/2011/04/ ... hmark.html

Alas, Ryan hasn't been updating that site so the data only goes through 2011 or so.
Ryan no longer believes in the P.P.
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Tortoise » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:30 am

Don wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:28 pm
Ryan no longer believes in the P.P.
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Smith1776
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:36 am

Don wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:28 pm
barrett wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:13 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:30 am
Nice-looking website, Smith!
I agree but I'd like to see the returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. I suspect the "flattening" that we see over the last ten years or so is at least partly due to inflation being low during that entire period.

Check out this page from Ryan Melvey's site:

http://www.stableinvesting.com/2011/04/ ... hmark.html

Alas, Ryan hasn't been updating that site so the data only goes through 2011 or so.
Ryan no longer believes in the P.P.
Well he's a silly billy then.

William Bernstein was right about The Permanent Portfolio and its adherents. Everybody seemed to flock to the strategy when the market was tanking during 2008 and its aftermath. Now that the market has been on a ten-year bull run it's the opposite. The strategy is good, the problem is investor psychology.

It takes a really disciplined investor to stick to any given strategy when it is out of favour. (And all given strategies go out of favour from time-to-time.) Very few investors have the right stuff to stay the course.

I'm equally confident that many in typical 60/40 and Three Fund portfolios will abandon their strategy when times are tough for their given approach as well.
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Tortoise » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:21 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:36 am
It takes a really disciplined investor to stick to any given strategy when it is out of favour. (And all given strategies go out of favour from time-to-time.) Very few investors have the right stuff to stay the course.
I guess the question is which psychological force is more potent: The fear of loss, or the fear of missing out on gains being enjoyed by others?
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by dualstow » Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:29 am

Yep, Michael Cuggino of PRPFX — I know he takes a lot of flak here — has talked about how people abandon the fund during the lean years.

Not so many new all-stock threads at Bogleheads right now.
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Re: Gyroscopic Portfolios Is Now Under Construction

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:39 am

I'm on the same page as you guys.

Remember the original epic PP thread over at the Bogleheads forum? I've read the whole thing from start to finish -- multiple times. With perhaps the biggest exception being the brief scuffle between MediumTex and Larry Swedroe, everyone seemed so gung ho on the strategy. It was amazing to see the tenor and the "energy" of the conversation change as the timeline went from the depths of the 2008 crisis to present.

In the beginning the arguments against gold were meek at best. Bonds were the belle of the ball. Stocks were radioactive. Look now how it's changed. How easily people get swayed after a few years in a bull market!

Maybe there's something I'm not seeing, but I'm just as enthusiastic about the PP strategy now as I have ever been. I don't feel any FOMO about equity bull markets. Maybe it's a personality thing, because unlike many in my age cohort I don't feel FOMO when I see big party or vacation photos posted on social media either. I just don't care. Heh.
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