Purpose of the PP

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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dualstow
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:59 am

Probably expires.
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:31 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:59 am
Nonsense, I delete like half my posts. There's a little 'x' in the top right corner of the post, beside the edit pencil.
Weird, on my new posts like this one I do see the ‘x’ delete-post button, but on my previous two posts I don’t. (I’m using the mobile version of the site, for what it’s worth.)
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Xan
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by Xan » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:46 am

My guess is it has to do with activity in the meantime. For example, you can always edit your posts, but if you do it after somebody else has seen it, then the system adds an "Edited on" message.

I bet you can delete posts up until somebody replies.
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:25 pm

Had to post these. Yes, my portfolio is at its lowest YTD, dammit. But,

Above S&P return for the year:

Image

and look at the 1 year returns:

Image

For sure, budd and mathjak would say given more time, stocks will come back again and blow the pants off bonds and gold. Probably right. But how many heavy stock holders are watching a >15% downward price swing in only 2.5 months trying not to be nervous?
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:55 am

This is why it never felt right to try something like 100% stocks.
Yay, Team PP! We’re losing the least! O0

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:25 pm
Had to post these. Yes, my portfolio is at its lowest YTD, dammit. But,

Above S&P return for the year:

Image

and look at the 1 year returns:

Image

For sure, budd and mathjak would say given more time, stocks will come back again and blow the pants off bonds and gold. Probably right. But how many heavy stock holders are watching a >15% downward price swing in only 2.5 months trying not to be nervous?
Venezuela’s Gold is Vanishing into Africa
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by Kbg » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:40 am

They will be right almost certainly over the long run and I could not fault budd for wanting to rebalance out if he hated gold as much as he appeared to. But at least for me, I was/am relatively convinced doing it now is not a good idea. The US market has been on a 9 year absolute tear, was very overbought and for about the last 3 months economic data has been softening. Once the market goes down say 20% or more, OK then you have a reasonable rebalance out scenario. Something super simple is to use momentum, a trend line or a moving average to rebalance out of gold once stocks have turned the corner and are going back up.

By way of stats gold (GLD) is up 7%ish since the August low and my souped up version with UGLD in it is up 20%
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:49 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:40 am
But at least for me, I was/am relatively convinced doing it now is not a good idea. The US market has been on a 9 year absolute tear, was very overbought and for about the last 3 months economic data has been softening.
In 2013, I took a little bit of profits from vp stocks, just a little. Anytime the market went down, I got nervous. Why didn’t I take more profits?! The market’s overbought! And then....it went up for five more years. (shrug)
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by Kbg » Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:00 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:49 am
Kbg wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:40 am
But at least for me, I was/am relatively convinced doing it now is not a good idea. The US market has been on a 9 year absolute tear, was very overbought and for about the last 3 months economic data has been softening.
In 2013, I took a little bit of profits from vp stocks, just a little. Anytime the market went down, I got nervous. Why didn’t I take more profits?! The market’s overbought! And then....it went up for five more years. (shrug)
Nothing is certain, but it's helpful to buy and sell financial assets like you do cars, computers etc. Buy when cheap, sell when expensive. For some reason we like to do the exact opposite with financial assets. I think that's why W.B has been so successful.
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:07 pm

WB?
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by drumminj » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:34 pm

Warren buffet?
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:42 pm

drumminj wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Warren buffet?
Ah, of course.
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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:35 pm

Need to post the comparison again. Also, now with cash paying 2+% again, I see the wisdom of HB esp. when cash paid 5%. 25% cash for the past couple months would have been nice, vs. the 10% I am at.

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Re: Purpose of the PP

Post by drumminj » Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:35 pm
25% cash for the past couple months would have been nice, vs. the 10% I am at.
Yeah, I was a bit bummed being 4x25 earlier (vs golden butterfly-ish) in the year as stocks out-performed, but right now am happy to be 25% cash
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