Gyroscopic Investing

Hello,

I opened two separate portfolios about 6 months ago and this is their performance up until now.

Obviously not perfect, so I was curious to find out whether other members of the forum have had similar issues or you have any advice.

Thanks!

Here are the numbers:

European PP (in EUR)
Start date: 25 Mar 2018
Since start date: -0.90%

Composition and performance:
EXSA iShares STOXX Europe 600 5.13%
IEGL iShares € Govt Bond 15-30yr -3.40%
IEGE iShares € Govt Bond 0-1yr -0.52%
ZGLDEU-EUR ZKB Gold ETF -7.17%



US-based PP (in USD)
Start date: 5 Apr 2018
Since start date: -1.17%

Composition and performance:
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 10.42%
TLT iShares 20 Years Bond ETF -3.24%
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF 0.03%
IAU iShares Gold Trust ETF -12.15%
ZGLDUS-USD ZKB Gold ETF -13.09%

I have a slight variant on the PP (a bit more stocks, less cash), and I am -0.68% for 6 months, so your numbers seem in line.

My particular PP variant is up 4% since April. It is:

40% TFLO. Ishares Floating Rate Treasury ETF
15% EDV Vanguard Extended Treasury
10% IAU. Ishares Gold ETF
17.5. MDYG Spdr Midcap Growth
17.5 SLYG. Spdr Small Cap Growth


Being low on gold has certainly helped this year.

gospodin_i wrote: ↑Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:01 am I was curious to find out whether other members of the forum have had similar issues or you have any advice.

Mine is classical HB 4x25 PP
6 month -0.1%
YTD -1.0%

Thank you all!

It's my first foray in investing, so I was worried I might be "doing something wrong"

So all of you have real returns for the past 6 months of around -2%. Is that good?

Since 1 Jan:
My Euro PP (includes blue chip shares so not completely conventional): -1.23%
Conventional Euro PP which I track for comparison (25% each ETFs CEU, MTH, GBS, C13): -1.19%

Similar to the US PPs. Gold in Euros is -7% since 1 Jan and the Euro is down relative to the dollar so the Euro price has declined less than the dollar price (-10%).

Gospodin: looks like you are doing it right, with the conventional PP. Mine includes shares, but only for historical reasons: I had shares and bond funds already, which I reorganised into a PP.

Don wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:04 am So all of you have real returns for the past 6 months of around -2%. Is that good?

No

It’s not a great portfolio.
May have been, might be, but no magic here.
Just 4 asset classes that most hold in varying percentages.
The percentages you choose will determine your outcome.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:10 am

Don wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:04 am So all of you have real returns for the past 6 months of around -2%. Is that good?

No

Actually, I think it's neither good, nor bad, but irrelevant.

It's called the Permanent Portfolio for a reason and a 6 month snapshot doesn't tell you much in the grand scheme of things.

jacksonM wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:43 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:10 am

Don wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:04 am So all of you have real returns for the past 6 months of around -2%. Is that good?

No

Actually, I think it's neither good, nor bad, but irrelevant.

It's called the Permanent Portfolio for a reason and a 6 month snapshot doesn't tell you much in the grand scheme of things.

While I understand what you are saying, positive is always better....

jacksonM wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:43 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:10 am

Don wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:04 am So all of you have real returns for the past 6 months of around -2%. Is that good?

No

Actually, I think it's neither good, nor bad, but irrelevant.

It's called the Permanent Portfolio for a reason and a 6 month snapshot doesn't tell you much in the grand scheme of things.

Been saying the same thing for 7 years now.
It’s only as permanent as your investing horizon.
All I have witnessed is stocks going up with gold and treasuries going down or producing minimal gains.
I still invest in all 4 asset classes but not 4x25.

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:57 pm

jacksonM wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:43 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:10 am

No

Actually, I think it's neither good, nor bad, but irrelevant.

It's called the Permanent Portfolio for a reason and a 6 month snapshot doesn't tell you much in the grand scheme of things.

Been saying the same thing for 7 years now.
It’s only as permanent as your investing horizon.
All I have witnessed is stocks going up with gold and treasuries going down or producing minimal gains.
I still invest in all 4 asset classes but not 4x25.

So does anyone here actually follow the PP as designed? Be honest.

I did for about the first 2.5 years.

I am now at, and have been at for a while:

Total Market 12.5%
LT Bonds 25.0%
LgCap Blend 12.5%
Emerging Mkt 5.0%
SmCapVal 5.0%
Cash 10.0%
Gold 25.0%
Silver 5.0%

Don wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:32 pm So does anyone here actually follow the PP as designed? Be honest.

I do. Following blindly HB 4x25 PP. Too lazy and not smart enough to tweak it. :-)

I follow it and have been for a long time. The last time I re balanced was Dec 4 2015
I normally re balance when I get very close to the 15/35 band. Since I re balanced my portfolio it has increased just over 15% this year it is down less then 1% from the beginning of the year. At present I am around the 20/30 re balance band which means I have to look at it a little more often but wont touch it until it get closer to 15/35
Gold 23.6995%
Cash 25.8261%
Stocks 30.2606%
Long Term Treasuries 20.2138%

Don wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:32 pm So does anyone here actually follow the PP as designed? Be honest.

In general, I think you'll find that the most active posters on the forum are the ones most likely to continually tweak the formula. There are probably many people that are silently staying the course.

Personally, I followed a pure PP for about six years before shifting to the Golden Butterfly. I'm always open to learning so I enjoy many of the conversations and thought experiments but I don't act on anything other than rebalancing when it's time. I have too many other things consuming the available "CPU cycles" in my brain to feel comfortable doing much else.

I do as well. Don't have the time or interest to get creative.

Like I said above or somewhere else, you have to outrun the losses in Gold and Treasuries. If you rebalanced from stocks to bonds at year end, you gave up 10+% upside and incurred an additional 8-10% in losses for a net loss of
20% on this money.

I adopted the PP in 2008 after the meltdown of the meager savings I had with what would probably be less than 10 years to go until retirement. I found it by googling "safe portfolio" or something like that.

It helped me hit my number at almost exactly the same time I was forced into retirement a couple of years ago so overall I have to say I am pleased with the performance. Were there portfolios that could have given me a better return during that time period? Of course there were. Probably could have doubled my money if I had chosen the right portfolio but I don't see much point in that kind of hindsight/second guessing. It did what I wanted it to do and that was that.

One thing I might be doing different from others is that I'm not very strict about re-balancing. If I feel comfortable about the way the momentum is going I just let things ride.

I follow PP with 30/20 bands and a slice of Wellesley in VP. Current portfolio balance is almost the same as starting balance from 8 years ago with a 5-6% withdrawal in retirement.

Don wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:32 pm So does anyone here actually follow the PP as designed? Be honest.

I didn't include that in my original post, but both portfolios I mentioned were split 4*25% in the beginning and the plan is to rebalance them back to this split each time they reach the 15/35 band.

So, yes, I follow the PP as designed.

I do plan to look into other opportunities, such as investing in ETFs that track specific industries, but if I do, I wouldn't count that as part of my PP.

Alanw wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:24 pm Current portfolio balance is almost the same as starting balance from 8 years ago with a 5-6% withdrawal in retirement.

THAT is all I am hoping for from this! Great for you!

She’s a beauty isn’t she

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:34 am She’s a beauty isn’t she

There are times when everything is ugly. Even the bird :-)