There are times when everything is ugly. Even the bird :-)
2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Those who had a stock heavy portfolio in 2008 will tend to view things differently (I think). It was very scary seeing the possibility of the U.S. including the stock market failing.
- Cortopassi
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Bingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
It's more than that in my eyes...Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:04 pmBingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
Gold and LTT's are down 8 and 9% respectively.
Stocks are declining and the assets that distinguish the PP from other portfolios (Gold and LTT's) are declining even further.
Nothing like giving up the wholesome gains in stocks on the upside and having your other assets decline even further when stocks finally pull back.
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Budd,
There is no rule, as we've seen, that they are direct inverses.
And you can kill yourself thinking about the delta loss that is happening across them now.
But if we get into a 50% stock bear decline, it's probably reasonable to say bonds won't go that far. Nor should gold. And you'll be happier to have them, or less pissed at least.
Not much benefit right now though!
There is no rule, as we've seen, that they are direct inverses.
And you can kill yourself thinking about the delta loss that is happening across them now.
But if we get into a 50% stock bear decline, it's probably reasonable to say bonds won't go that far. Nor should gold. And you'll be happier to have them, or less pissed at least.
Not much benefit right now though!
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Agree with all. The PP has not been kind to investors this year, nor has it been terrible. Remember Harry Browne said to look at your portfolio annually. I'm sure no one here, including myself adheres to that rule. In 2008 the PP suffered a loss of about 2%. Given the circumstances of that year, what investor wouldn't have been happy with that result.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Obviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Holy shit, this is the perfect synopsis.stuper1 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pmObviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
I want to make it my signature but not sure if it will fit.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
I forgot to add one thing. Other than those little quirks which admittedly bug me a little, Budd is a great guy.
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:27 pmHoly shit, this is the perfect synopsis.stuper1 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pmObviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
I want to make it my signature but not sure if it will fit.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:42 pmIt's more than that in my eyes...Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:04 pmBingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
Gold and LTT's are down 8 and 9% respectively.
Stocks are declining and the assets that distinguish the PP from other portfolios (Gold and LTT's) are declining even further.
Nothing like giving up the wholesome gains in stocks on the upside and having your other assets decline even further when stocks finally pull back.
It's probably instructive to find a previous period of time when we had similar economic conditions as a template for where the PP might be headed.
Rising rates and an overvalued stock market seem to be where we're at. Could we dare compare this period to 2000?
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Nothing good going on today. At this rate, I'll finish 2018 with the largest PP loss since 2015.
But then I get to buy more bonds and gold! Yipee!
But then I get to buy more bonds and gold! Yipee!
- buddtholomew
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Oh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:46 amNothing good going on today. At this rate, I'll finish 2018 with the largest PP loss since 2015.
But then I get to buy more bonds and gold! Yipee!
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
What would be magnificent for a day like today?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pmOh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
It’s an 8 year pattern for me, not a single day.Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:07 pmWhat would be magnificent for a day like today?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pmOh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
Anyway, don’t want to argue as I bought more SCV and TLT today to restore 30/20/15/35.
I am invested in the PP like many others.
Just wish one day we can justify holding.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Yup! Although I worried less (although for record, never all in PP).buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:57 pmIt’s an 8 year pattern for me, not a single day.Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:07 pmWhat would be magnificent for a day like today?buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pmOh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
Anyway, don’t want to argue as I bought more SCV and TLT today to restore 30/20/15/35.
I am invested in the PP like many others.
Just wish one day we can justify holding.
And for SCV to beat SP 500 while I'm at it....