PP performance for Q1 2018

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Post by Kbg »

sophie wrote:Great philophy, to tinker only within the PP assets. It keeps you from doing real damage to your portfolio :-)

Interestingly, I've been "tinkering" with stocks. There's a world of optimization possibilities: forming a collection of directly owned stocks to be held forever for "deep stocks", switching to lower cost funds even if you have to pay a commission, shifting more tax efficient funds to taxable and the others into the Roth, tax loss harvesting etc. I got a bit concerned that 100% FSTVX could be a bit too many eggs in one managerial basket, and it went on from there.
When tinkering with individual stocks, have a sell plan, always. There are some amazingly simple momentum strategies that work with stocks and will get you a nice premium over an index fund. The cost is more volatility. Funds will hold triple digit #s of stocks, but if you are willing to hold low double digits then one can do quite well This is a very nice sweet spot funds can't do because these strategies won't scale for them. Another option is buying something like Berkshire Hathaway and there are other companies that have similar models. Essentially with BRK.A/B and the like you are buying an index fund that will never cost you anything (fee and tax wise) unless you decide to pull the trigger on a sell.

There is an excellent BRK board at the Motley Fool...pretty much read everything by "mungofitch" and you will be well served.

In any event, depending on one's objectives this could be a VP or a small slice/satellite from of the PP stock core. If one does MoMo it will take a lot more of your time. So if more time on investments is not for you, I'd skip individual stocks unless you do something like a buy and forget BRK strategy.
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Post by jhogue »

@sophie:
Conceptually, I like the idea of “deep stocks.” I-bonds are attractive as “deep cash” Treasury securities held outside the traditional banking system. Physical gold is likewise “deep gold” that you ideally never sell. Nothing works quite the same way for LTTs, though I think that in one of his threads moda tried to make a case for EE bonds acting, in part, as “deep bonds.”

I don’t think any company issues stock certificates any more. Is it even possible to own stocks outside of a brokerage account with a street name designation? I had a problem similar to yours of being 100% in FSTVX, but I thought I miitgated it by buying ITOT in tax deferred and Roth IRA accounts. ITOT (0.03%) has a slightly lower ER than FSTVX (0.035%) and also provides institutional diversification. Do you expect to reap some effciencies from “deep stocks?” If you put them in taxable to do tax loss harvesting, won’t that be potentially offset by dividends taxed as ordinary income?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4402
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Post by Xan »

jhogue wrote:I don’t think any company issues stock certificates any more. Is it even possible to own stocks outside of a brokerage account with a street name designation?
My feeling on this is that whatever catastrophe has wiped out your brokerage has probably wiped out whatever company you owned stock in anyway.
User avatar
Mike59
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:07 pm

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Post by Mike59 »

Another Canadian here,
I run a slightly modified Permanent portfolio, interesting how currency, hedging and exposure can tilt the results. The figures below do not count dividends...

Gold:
CGL.C (unhedged gold etf): +4.76%

Stocks (split between Developed europe and emerging markets without any US or Canada exposure):
VEE (50%): + 5.04%
VE (50%) + 0.60%

Cash:
High interest savings account earning 1.0%: +0.25%

Long Bonds:
ZFL: +0.64%


Q1 OVERALL: +2.1 % (CDN Dollars)

However, it's worth noting that the US dollar ETF valued in Cdn Dollars (DLR) is up 2.76% in q1, suggesting that I'm flat to slightly negative when seen relative to US dollars.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1961
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Post by sophie »

jhogue wrote: Do you expect to reap some efficiencies from “deep stocks?” If you put them in taxable to do tax loss harvesting, won’t that be potentially offset by dividends taxed as ordinary income?
As index funds get to be more of a mainstream investment, I worry that they'll progressively become more attractive targets for gamesmanship (e.g. price manipulation of stocks being added to or taken out of an index). Plus there's always some degree of managerial risk. In the Good Old Days, investing in stocks meant buying, holding, and reinvesting dividends. There's something to be said for that. I don't have time to mess around with momentum plays, so I'm picking Berkshire-Hathaway-blessed leaders and planning on holding them essentially forever. Oddly, it feels almost as good to own individual stocks as it does to own physical gold.

I'm not too fussed about the dividend issue, as I don't anticipate getting to enjoy a < 15% bracket for more than a few years - if ever. The higher dividend payers are going into the Roth anyway.
Post Reply