Minimum time frame for holding PP

[Xan]

Just trying to understand, although not FDIC insured, wouldn’t a Treasury ETF like SHV or BIL be about as safe a vehicle as could be? If they went bust then all bets might be off correct?

If the underlying T-Bills went bust, yes. This is a good argument for owning those directly. But the ETF can go bust for many other reasons than the supposedly-underlying asset disappearing.

[jhogue]

I think ETFs like BIL are fine for smaller portfolios. Once you start growing the portfolio larger, it makes sense to start phasing in T bills held directly in a brokerage account or Treasury Direct.

[buddtholomew]

The PP is for suckers.
Gold and treasuries sell off worse than stocks.
This is my fear realized...
PP will not help when things go south.
You will lose as much in a decline and you better rebalance from cash before 1 of the assets recovers else you’re stuck like everyone else.

[stuper1]

Budd,

You used to drive me crazy with these posts every time things go down a bit. Now, I would feel like something was wrong if you didn't post. Thank you for your consistency. And THANK YOU for helping me get closer to finding my zen.

[buddtholomew]

Budd,

You used to drive me crazy with these posts every time things go down a bit. Now, I would feel like something was wrong if you didn't post. Thank you for your consistency. And THANK YOU for helping me get closer to finding my zen.

Nothing like the status quo.
I am zenless.

[dualstow]

budd, when you get a chance, can you tell us what your new plan is?
Is it to convert everything pp to the boglehead portion of your portfolio?

[buddtholomew]

DS, plan is not altered very much at all, more equities, less gold, less long-term treasuries and more cash - 30/20/15/35.
The cash is to purchase equities during any decline and also to add to gold and LTT's only when the lower band is breached.
LTT's are almost there again, but I'll only add enough to stay above the 15% floor.

I no longer believe that the PP is somewhat of a magical solution to my personal investing type - conservative.
I'm a lot more comfortable adding to stocks than to gold or LTT's.
I don't see either of these investments as "downside protection" when stocks fall and I would rather take my risk in stocks than either of those two.

BH portion remains at 70/30.

Hope this helps.

Here’s the best part...70/30 beat my PP by 16 basis points today. “Don’t fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool”.

[dualstow]

Cool, thanks.

[Jeffreyalan]

Thanks for all the input. For now I think I might do a Desert Portfolio. The drawdowns are enough for me to handle (I think) and I can move to cash a year out.

60% IEF
30% VTI
10% IAU

[buddtholomew]

How's everyone enjoying their false protection?

[Cortopassi]

Assuming that is sarcastic, not so much. But what can you do? Even minimally, gold and bonds are buffering the stock drop.

At some point, everyone will realize, oh, maybe the economy isn't doing as good as we thought, and bonds will benefit.

Gold is always the wildcard.

[buddtholomew]

Assuming that is sarcastic, not so much. But what can you do? Even minimally, gold and bonds are buffering the stock drop.

At some point, everyone will realize, oh, maybe the economy isn't doing as good as we thought, and bonds will benefit.

Gold is always the wildcard.

Yes definitely sarcastic, but aren’t you the least bit concerned? We’ve been holding our breath for almost a decade now...

[jhogue]

I am not concerned.

I am not holding my breath for ten years.

As a store of wealth, gold is supposed to just sit there most of the time-- even for decades.

[Cortopassi]

Assuming that is sarcastic, not so much. But what can you do? Even minimally, gold and bonds are buffering the stock drop.

At some point, everyone will realize, oh, maybe the economy isn't doing as good as we thought, and bonds will benefit.

Gold is always the wildcard.

Yes definitely sarcastic, but aren’t you the least bit concerned? We’ve been holding our breath for almost a decade now...

Sure, I would love to get 12-15% returns per year. Tell me how, please. All I can do is continue to max out my 401k/IRAs, not spend a lot, and retire in ~10 years with reasonable security.

The only other way I might have been able to better accomplish that was maybe to buy 6 flats 10/20/25 years ago as my investing, vs. being in the market/PP. Probably would have made things better, with a nice steady income as well. But even that has headaches, maintenance, etc.

[buddtholomew]

I am not concerned.

I am not holding my breath for ten years.

As a store of wealth, gold is supposed to just sit there most of the time-- even for decades.

Not speaking specifically about gold.

[eufo]

How's everyone enjoying their false protection?

Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets.

[buddtholomew]

How's everyone enjoying their false protection?

Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets.

That sums it up succinctly, nice job!
I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I don’t expect you to understand.
When I posted earlier in the day all assets were down except gold which was +.31%. UUP was -.17% so I guess cash was positive too.

[iwealth]

How's everyone enjoying their false protection?

Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets.

That sums it up succinctly, nice job!
I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I don’t expect you to understand.
When I posted earlier in the day all assets were down except gold which was +.31%. UUP was -.17% so I guess cash was positive too.

It really bugs you that others don't share your PP depression. Misery loves company, I guess, but passive aggressive swipes at someone's wealth is below board.

[Cortopassi]

Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets.

That sums it up succinctly, nice job!
I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I don’t expect you to understand.
When I posted earlier in the day all assets were down except gold which was +.31%. UUP was -.17% so I guess cash was positive too.

It really bugs you that others don't share your PP depression. Misery loves company, I guess, but passive aggressive swipes at someone's wealth is below board.

That's what I hate about comment boards. People think they are anonymous and say things that, God, I hope they would never ever say, or even really think (ZeroHedge is the worst ever). I don't think Budd is that way, I am sure he is a perfectly fine guy, but message boards, comment boards, Twitter, etc. seem to bring out the worst in a lot of people, or at least the immediate emotional, not considered reply.

That's why I don't post much, and when I do, I think about it and reread my comments multiple times before hitting submit. Even so, something I think is innocuous can still really piss someone off.

[buddtholomew]

I always give the benefit of the doubt, but I’m no patsy and shoot first before asking questions for clarification. Eufo has made snarky comments toward me in the past and I am only playing along. Sorry if that bothers you.

[Kriegsspiel]

SPOILER ALERT I DON'T THINK BUDD IS REALLY SORRY

[dualstow]

SPOILER ALERT I DON'T THINK BUDD IS REALLY SORRY

You always crack me up

[Cortopassi]

Here's a perfect example. Took me two seconds to find this dick -- this is a comment section on a story of how the husband of the lady who was killed on the Southwest airplane is dealing with it.

If I employed this person, he'd be gone. Far too many people on the internet are assholes.

[Kriegsspiel]

POSTED: If management doesn't get your humor, termination will result.

[buddtholomew]

You’re right...sorry, not sorry.
I openly post how I feel albeit far too much and noticeably to others disdain.
It’s my nature to refine until I have a product I am comfortable using and the PP just gives me so much angst.
I love the concept but in practice it’s frustrating to own.