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HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:35 pm
by PP67
No doubt this is HBPP heresy but it would be fun to see the range of results from the wisdom of the crowds...

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:56 pm
by Xan
Are you talking real growth or nominal growth?

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:12 pm
by Euro-PP
I assume real return, so after inflation.
Allocation 4x 25%.

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:00 pm
by ochotona
My prediction... it will do OK

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:11 pm
by PP67
Sorry Xan... I was thinking nominal growth as that would exclude another assumption (inflation).

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:31 pm
by buddtholomew
All assets are expensive, perhaps gold to a lesser degree.
Always the pessimist, I expect Cash to outperform as ST rates rise. Nothing catastrophic, but maybe 2-3% nominal. 2016/2017 have been good years so no complaints.

I almost forgot, we’ve seen a nice run-up in both gold and bonds so expect withdrawals in Q1 if stocks continue their ascend. I’ve talked about this before and I’m sure it’s not new to others - runup in gold and treasuries and then the inevitable declines when the risk doesn’t materialize.

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:07 pm
by sophie
Once again, I'm pretty sure we are all predicting bonds will go down. How many years and counting has that prediction been made, and turned out false?

This might very well be the year when it happens...we'll see.

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:42 pm
by eufo
Looks like I'm the lone pessimist so far with a -5% to 0%. I think we might see some asset depreciation in both stocks & bonds. I'm liking cash & gold. I hope I'm wrong. Another year like this one would be great!

Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018

Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:16 am
by Thomas Hoog
sophie wrote:Once again, I'm pretty sure we are all predicting bonds will go down. How many years and counting has that prediction been made, and turned out false?

This might very well be the year when it happens...we'll see.
12 years ? :)