HBPP Predictions for 2018
Moderator: Global Moderator
HBPP Predictions for 2018
No doubt this is HBPP heresy but it would be fun to see the range of results from the wisdom of the crowds...
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
Are you talking real growth or nominal growth?
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
I assume real return, so after inflation.
Allocation 4x 25%.
Allocation 4x 25%.
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
My prediction... it will do OK
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
Sorry Xan... I was thinking nominal growth as that would exclude another assumption (inflation).
- buddtholomew
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
All assets are expensive, perhaps gold to a lesser degree.
Always the pessimist, I expect Cash to outperform as ST rates rise. Nothing catastrophic, but maybe 2-3% nominal. 2016/2017 have been good years so no complaints.
I almost forgot, we’ve seen a nice run-up in both gold and bonds so expect withdrawals in Q1 if stocks continue their ascend. I’ve talked about this before and I’m sure it’s not new to others - runup in gold and treasuries and then the inevitable declines when the risk doesn’t materialize.
Always the pessimist, I expect Cash to outperform as ST rates rise. Nothing catastrophic, but maybe 2-3% nominal. 2016/2017 have been good years so no complaints.
I almost forgot, we’ve seen a nice run-up in both gold and bonds so expect withdrawals in Q1 if stocks continue their ascend. I’ve talked about this before and I’m sure it’s not new to others - runup in gold and treasuries and then the inevitable declines when the risk doesn’t materialize.
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
Once again, I'm pretty sure we are all predicting bonds will go down. How many years and counting has that prediction been made, and turned out false?
This might very well be the year when it happens...we'll see.
This might very well be the year when it happens...we'll see.
Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
Looks like I'm the lone pessimist so far with a -5% to 0%. I think we might see some asset depreciation in both stocks & bonds. I'm liking cash & gold. I hope I'm wrong. Another year like this one would be great!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2018
12 years ?sophie wrote:Once again, I'm pretty sure we are all predicting bonds will go down. How many years and counting has that prediction been made, and turned out false?
This might very well be the year when it happens...we'll see.