PP at new high for the year...

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sophie
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by sophie » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:27 am

Curious that gold and bonds have declined while stocks are mostly flat. It might have something to do with the increased value of the dollar.

This is a blip rather than a long term trend though. Just hold on to your hats and wait. I get the feeling that something interesting is going to happen over the next few months.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by bedraggled » Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:42 am

Sophie,

What interesting things occur to you?

This sounds like an entertaining topic.

We will probably get used to the North Korea situation.

Could the EU fray a bit more and increase the dollar value?

Thanks.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by barrett » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:08 pm

bedraggled wrote:Sophie,

What interesting things occur to you?
I'm not Sophie but a good old-fashioned trade war would be a nice test for the PP at the moment.

Also, and I realize that this is not an original thought, I believe that the PP and almost every other portfolio out there is likely to have lower than historical returns over the next several years. Stocks are richly valued and investors tend not to ignore low-hanging fruit. The result is that other assets are richly valued as well.

Anything that beats inflation, even if it's only by a bit, will be fine by me.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Bjorgen » Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:52 am

PP EU down 2,5% (since June 15 2017)
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blue_ruin17
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by blue_ruin17 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:07 am

Canadian PP is down about 0.4% on the year. Lost about 3% YTD gains over the past couple weeks.
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jhogue
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by jhogue » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:34 pm

Started my annual rebalance. Sold stocks (FSTVX) from 28.7% of portfolio back to 25.0%. Seemed like a good day to do it.

Now I have to hold my nose and buy LTTs. I hope the yuck factor will turn out to be a good sign
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:50 am

...and back near highs for the year, at least in my allocation.

2 weeks after complaining.

I should just not check!
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:55 pm

The question is whether the cycle will repeat itself once more and what, if anything, do you intend to do about it?

Step 1. Equities, Gold, Treasuries up
Step 2. Equities up, Gold and Treasuries down

The only solution I can come up with is to sell a portion to cash and then reinvest at a lower price. Not sure I can time it well enough for it to matter even if I am right.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:56 pm

It looks like step 2 is a no go as of today ;D
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:01 am

Same shit...feel like a sucker again!
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:23 am

Always expected on jobs report day. It seems we are in amazing economic shape. Part of me wants to believe it, part of me thinks it is all an illusion.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:00 am

Be very, very quiet... new high for the PP and gold over $1300. What the heck is going on??? ;)

No complaints.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:32 am

What happened?
Went out to buy a new car, came back and now I can't pay for it >:D
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by farjean2 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:25 pm

Golden Butterfly is up 5.42% on the year. The only thing under performing is the small cap value portion. Did great last year but not this one. Wonder why that is.

Gold is the winner so far. If it keeps up I might even break even on all my gold some day.

Long Bonds continue to amaze. Like Mark Twain said, their death seems to always be greatly exaggerated.

Cash is trash - that saying couldn't be truer right now. Wonder if it's ever going earn anything again in my lifetime (10 years at current avg life expectancy).
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by tarentola » Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:10 am

No such luck here in Europe. My Euro PP is +0.55% for 2017, not helped by the Euro's strength at $1.19.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:02 pm

If I could guarantee the current return every year, I would quit my job right now. ;)

My PP variant is up over 11% right now. I have even finally learned not to stress out when gold drops.

YTD on my holdings. VINEX (emerg. mkt) far and away the winner.

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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:11 pm

Add UUP and we'll see why that is the case ;)
Something is a little unnerving with GLD and TLT performance. What am I missing?
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:20 pm

budd, are you thinking they should be in lockstep and that TLT's return should be higher? I assume a lot has to do with gold's apparent higher volatility. 10 year comparison shows GLD can vary significantly from TLT

As for UUP, well we now have a president who extended the debt ceiling and is saying we should get away from it completely, so print away...!

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buddtholomew
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:28 pm

Sorry for leaving you in the dark to guess.

While I want GLD and TLT to go to the moon, something tells me their outperformance is a sign of economic trouble ahead in the US. EU is full speed ahead for now.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:36 pm

I totally agree there. This is an interesting perspective:

https://mishtalk.com/2017/09/07/10-year ... -bank-cio/

Snippet:

Asset allocation

We have had the same positioning since Q1’17 (we use a Permanent Portfolio approach):

Equities: 25% (respecting the momentum)
Fixed income: 50% (see attached memo)
Commodities: 25% (overweight gold and silver)
Cash: zero
We have recently reduced some of the risk as we are now:

Equities: 10% (mainly gold mining stocks)
Fixed Income: 25% (neutral weight)
Commodities: 25% (neutral weight)
Cash: 40% (overweight)

The cash weighting, of course, is “too high” but we want to wait out September and Q4 to see how the credit impulse plays out. It’s been a good investor year and as J.P Morgan once said when asked how he became rich, “I took my profit too early”
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm

And I am exactly $2.92/ounce away from gold being dead even for me across my 9 years of investing in it. It has been a long freaking wait.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:10 pm

Sorry Corto et al. but the true surge came after markets opened when Gold/LTT's faced the wrath of a catastrophe that didn't come to pass.

Same shit...run up then sell off...
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:43 pm

Ehh, it was expected, no matter the outcome. No missile shot by NK, Irma not as bad on Florida as expected.

Even if both those things did happen, gold was due for a breather.
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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:30 am

I started the PP in Feb 2014. This is a snapshot of my IRA account. Notice what happened at that time...

The y axis is account value (bottom is not $0, just the lowest account level)

I need to stop any sort of complaining about gold or anything. All I am allowed to complain about is my investing habits prior to 2014...

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Re: PP at new high for the year...

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:46 pm

I just missed it, started in September 2012. O0
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