Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

[frugal]

Hi pp friends.

Is there any low volatility and higher returns portfolio?

I believe not, so this is the best.

Am I right?

Happy easter!

[mathjak107]

depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .

a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..

to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .

to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.

so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .

[dualstow]

Happy Easter, Frugal,

[Jack Jones]

Frugal, I'm glad you're still out there. You keep doing you, man.

[modeljc]

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.

Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?

[mathjak107]

i toned it down to an extended market fund vxf after such a run up in small cap .

[eufo]

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.

Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?

I said semi-GB, but that's not really a fair assessment of where I'm going. When I began my transition a few months ago, I was headed towards:

20% LCB
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold
20% REIT

This was my semi-GB, swapping into REIT from STT.

Then I changed to:

20% LCV
20% MCV
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold

Feeling thoroughly disappointed with ETF options for the Value equities, I decided to head toward using Blends instead.

My current monstrosity of a portfolio looks like this:

5% TSM
4% LCB
5% LCV
2% MCB
5% MCV
2% SCB
5% SCV
21% LTT
14% STT
22% Gold
4% REIT
11% Cash

Oddly enough, it's not a terrible portfolio... just looks ugly to my OCD. Plug it into Tyler's site and you'll see it's pretty smooth. 5.3% Real CAGR. Deepest Drawdown 11%, 2 years. Might be better than what I'm aiming for... *shrugs*

[dualstow]

Ha, that really is a monstrosity.

[Dieter]

Did you consider GB, but split SCV into SCV / ISB?

Or for more tilt, have stock allocation be 1/3 each of TSM, SCV, ISB.

Bonds 1/3 each to LTT, ITT, Cash/STT

But if it works for ya.....

[frugal]

depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .

a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..

to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .

to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.

so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .

hello

how are you?

GB is gold bullion?

What is your asset allocation now?

All the best.

[dualstow]

Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.

GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

[frugal]

Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.

GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

hi

I think this one is from Tony Robbins.

GB is also very good.

A lot of people is changing from PP to GB?

What are the disadvantages?

Thank you so much.

[dualstow]

Well, only if Tony Robbins goes by "Tyler" on this forum.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.

[frugal]

Well, only if Tony Robbins goes by "Tyler" on this forum.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.

It is more than 1% more in returns...

Do you think this works also in Europe?

Thank you !

[dualstow]

Seems like it could, to the same extent that the pp does.

[frugal]

Hello!

SMALL CAPS give the GB more than 1%, which is a big difference, let's say + 20% of annual returns?

In Europe I can't find SMALL CAPS ... I only found LARGE CAPS

Any ideas?

Best regards.

[mathjak107]

fidelity has a small cap international fund .not sure if you can get it in europe .

[mathjak107]

depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .

a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..

to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .

to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.

so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .

hello

how are you?

GB is gold bullion?

What is your asset allocation now?

All the best.

gb is the golden butterfly .

i run about 40% the butterfly and the rest are my models from fidelity insight . i keep 5 years withdrawals in their income portfolio , 5 years in the growth and income portfolio and the rest in the growth portfolio . that way each portfolio is optimized for the time frame .

[mortalpawn]

I've started very slowly moving into the Golden Butterfly from the PP after being in the PP for the last 3+ years (though returns the last few years were a bit weak). It does make me a bit nervous as the small value and regular large stock funds have about an 80% correlation (much higher than the other assets) but the historical performance is quite convincing - slightly higher returns, about the same deviation and drawdown performance, slightly higher risk/reward and good staying power when the stock market crashed.

I decided to take it a bit at a time so I've been rolling stock gains from last few years over into small value stocks first, then I'll probably move a few percentage from bonds and cash and leave the gold as the last asset to re-balance. I'm only moving a few percent a month from PP to GB so I can dollar cost average if there is a major market move coming up. I've also done a bit of rebalancing between taxable and retirement accounts to try to minimize the tax bill by holding less stocks/bonds in taxable accounts.

I can't find a major downside to the Golden Butterfly - and it tracks well with the PP philosophy.

[farjean2]

As of today, Gold is up over 11% YTD and long bonds > 3% for a very nice YTD gain, well above a stock only portfolio whether large or small cap.

And nobody should believe in the PP because of why exactly?

[mathjak107]

As of today, Gold is up over 11% YTD and long bonds > 3% for a very nice YTD gain, well above a stock only portfolio whether large or small cap.

And nobody should believe in the PP because of why exactly?

the problem is holding the gains once the fear factor slides . i have very nice gains on the gb but i know the portions that are up are generally only nice and juicy until things calm down and risk is back on again in equity's , as it is most of the time . took some gold profits on thursday .

same thing happened after brexit as double digit gains in gold and bonds evaporated back down to mid single digits again once the temporary fear left.

you can be sure anyone who thought they would seek shelter in the pp after brexit and bought in to the idea of having a nice safe portfolio , was horrified at the double digit losses they had by years end .

when it comes to juicy gains in the flight to safety assets like gold and bonds , it seems these juicy gains are more about timing the markets than time in the markets . their roll in the pp is not big gains but rather mitigating the temporary dips so it is not about holding on to these untypical gains as much as we all would like it to play out that way .

not that there is anything wrong with the pp's returns , but looking at what seems excessive returns in the fear factor assets when they are up usually is something that does not stick around long . it just mitigates the dips and then slides back to more typical action for that asset .

[Libertarian666]

As of today, Gold is up over 11% YTD and long bonds > 3% for a very nice YTD gain, well above a stock only portfolio whether large or small cap.

And nobody should believe in the PP because of why exactly?

Because gold doesn't pay dividends, and isn't even backed by anything!

[sophie]

The best argument for the Golden Butterfly is that the four economic conditions that the PP is designed to leverage don't occur in equal measure in the 35+ year history that we are able to to use for backtesting. Prosperity clearly dominated.

The GB is a bet that Prosperity will continue to be more prevalent than inflation or deflation. That may well be true, but of course we can't know for certain. A Japanese investor, for example, would certainly disagree! If you decide to remain agnostic, stick to the PP.

Another reason to stick to the PP is if you are in my situation: a retirement account that is large compared to your PP savings, and that you can't integrate into the PP. I keep a standard 50/50 stock/bond portfolio in this account. I'm well aware of both its strengths and its weaknesses, and I need the PP to backstop the weaknesses.

[mathjak107]

a Japanese investor equivalent here would not be locked in to buying only his country's own stocks and bonds so in that respect that example of what happened in japan would not hold true here. we can invest anywhere in the world .

[mathjak107]

The best argument for the Golden Butterfly is that the four economic conditions that the PP is designed to leverage don't occur in equal measure in the 35+ year history that we are able to to use for backtesting. Prosperity clearly dominated.

The GB is a bet that Prosperity will continue to be more prevalent than inflation or deflation. That may well be true, but of course we can't know for certain. A Japanese investor, for example, would certainly disagree! If you decide to remain agnostic, stick to the PP.

Another reason to stick to the PP is if you are in my situation: a retirement account that is large compared to your PP savings, and that you can't integrate into the PP. I keep a standard 50/50 stock/bond portfolio in this account. I'm well aware of both its strengths and its weaknesses, and I need the PP to backstop the weaknesses.

same here , i hold the gb to 35% or so of all invest-able money right now but the other 65% is invested in the same models i always used and optimized for when the money is needed .

i keep about 5 years withdrawals in an income model that is about 23% equity and the rest various bond funds , years 6-10 are in a growth and income model that is 60% equity and all the rest in a growth model that is 100% equity that will feed us 11-30 years from now .

i find that method helps optimize the portfolio to the time frame .