Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
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- I Shrugged
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
I don't know if HB's book is too simple for some analytical types. I think maybe you need to have battle scars to appreciate it fully.
Sophie I would recommend Berstein's Four Pillars book. Assuming he is smart and analytical. It really showed me the error of my ways as far as using active funds, let alone stock picking.
Sophie I would recommend Berstein's Four Pillars book. Assuming he is smart and analytical. It really showed me the error of my ways as far as using active funds, let alone stock picking.
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
So are the principles espoused by Benjamin Graham still valid today, or should you just say "I don't know what is going to happen" and go for the PP?
http://www.conscious-investor.com/books ... vestor.pdf
http://www.conscious-investor.com/books ... vestor.pdf
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Add in 10% to 15% cash, by removing say 5% SCV and 5% to 10% gold, and rebalance annually, and I'd say that would be a lot better portfolio than what most people have.modeljc wrote: Try:
15% Total Stock Market
15% Mid cap Value
25% Small cap Value
20% Long term Treasuries
25% Gold
Modeljc Butterfly? 7.7% REAL RETURNS
That might be why NO BELIEVES IN THE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO?
PP RETURNS ARE SMALL AND BORING AND WE ALL HOPE FOR MORE
- Cortopassi
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
I believe!
Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.
Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Judging from about 8 years in the PP, you can almost always count on gold and long bonds to lead the pack when there is bad news on the horizon. You just have to hope the bad news doesn't fully materialize.Cortopassi wrote:I believe!
Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Hey, didn't you just finish telling me not to jinx it?Cortopassi wrote:I believe!
Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.
https://i.imgur.com/UyHO6BL.png
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
- Cortopassi
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
I prefaced with "Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow..."dualstow wrote:Hey, didn't you just finish telling me not to jinx it?Cortopassi wrote:I believe!
Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.
https://i.imgur.com/UyHO6BL.png
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Hi pp friends.
Is there any low volatility and higher returns portfolio?
I believe not, so this is the best.
Am I right?
Happy easter!
Is there any low volatility and higher returns portfolio?
I believe not, so this is the best.
Am I right?
Happy easter!
- mathjak107
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .
a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..
to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .
to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.
so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .
a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..
to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .
to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.
so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Happy Easter, Frugal,
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Frugal, I'm glad you're still out there. You keep doing you, man.
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?eufo wrote:It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.
- mathjak107
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
i toned it down to an extended market fund vxf after such a run up in small cap .
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
I said semi-GB, but that's not really a fair assessment of where I'm going. When I began my transition a few months ago, I was headed towards:modeljc wrote:Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?eufo wrote:It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.
20% LCB
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold
20% REIT
This was my semi-GB, swapping into REIT from STT.
Then I changed to:
20% LCV
20% MCV
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold
Feeling thoroughly disappointed with ETF options for the Value equities, I decided to head toward using Blends instead.
My current monstrosity of a portfolio looks like this:
5% TSM
4% LCB
5% LCV
2% MCB
5% MCV
2% SCB
5% SCV
21% LTT
14% STT
22% Gold
4% REIT
11% Cash
Oddly enough, it's not a terrible portfolio... just looks ugly to my OCD. Plug it into Tyler's site and you'll see it's pretty smooth. 5.3% Real CAGR. Deepest Drawdown 11%, 2 years. Might be better than what I'm aiming for... *shrugs*
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Ha, that really is a monstrosity.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Did you consider GB, but split SCV into SCV / ISB?
Or for more tilt, have stock allocation be 1/3 each of TSM, SCV, ISB.
Bonds 1/3 each to LTT, ITT, Cash/STT
But if it works for ya.....
Or for more tilt, have stock allocation be 1/3 each of TSM, SCV, ISB.
Bonds 1/3 each to LTT, ITT, Cash/STT
But if it works for ya.....
Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
mathjak107 wrote:depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .
a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..
to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .
to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.
so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .
hello
how are you?
GB is gold bullion?
What is your asset allocation now?
All the best.
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.
GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
hidualstow wrote:Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.
GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
I think this one is from Tony Robbins.
GB is also very good.
A lot of people is changing from PP to GB?
What are the disadvantages?
Thank you so much.
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Well, only if Tony Robbins goes by "Tyler" on this forum.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
It is more than 1% more in returns...dualstow wrote:Well, only if Tony Robbins goes by "Tyler" on this forum.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.
Do you think this works also in Europe?
Thank you !
- dualstow
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Seems like it could, to the same extent that the pp does.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Hello!
SMALL CAPS give the GB more than 1%, which is a big difference, let's say + 20% of annual returns?
In Europe I can't find SMALL CAPS ... I only found LARGE CAPS
Any ideas?
Best regards.
SMALL CAPS give the GB more than 1%, which is a big difference, let's say + 20% of annual returns?
In Europe I can't find SMALL CAPS ... I only found LARGE CAPS
Any ideas?
Best regards.
- mathjak107
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
fidelity has a small cap international fund .not sure if you can get it in europe .