Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

[eufo]

I think you'd be doing your friend a favor if you talked him into selling half of his EM allocation, and buying gold. It's an OK portfolio, if he's younger. If he's over 50, he's going to have trouble when the 60% stocks and REIT lose 1/2 or more of their value in the next bear market.

Indeed I would, but I never offer advice unless I'm asked. When he originally asked I wasn't comfortable with gold like I am now. I've mentioned that I hold gold, but unless he asks I won't interfere. Like I said, he's very happy with it.

I was very fortunate in that my first attempt to outsmart the market led to an almost instant margin call, which convinced me to avoid margin afterwards.

I'm sure you didn't feel fortunate in that moment, but at least you learned early instead of late. Can you imagine amassing a fortune and then getting margin called out of it? A disaster sure to befall some unlucky fool.

Sounds like a 60/40 Swenson-ish.

http://www.npr.org/2015/10/17/436993646 ... portfolios

That is rather close. I know for sure there was no talk of Developed International, but other than that, extremely close. It still ends up being like a 60/40, though REITs can be a bit feisty when compared with normal equities.

[PP67]

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare. They might find out on their own that perhaps a little gold dust is just the secret ingredient they have been looking for.

https://portfoliocharts.com/

[Jack Jones]

Indeed I would, but I never offer advice unless I'm asked.

Very wise!

[modeljc]

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare. They might find out on their own that perhaps a little gold dust is just the secret ingredient they have been looking for.

https://portfoliocharts.com/

Try:

15% Total Stock Market
15% Mid cap Value
25% Small cap Value
20% Long term Treasuries
25% Gold

Modeljc Butterfly? 7.7% REAL RETURNS

That might be why NO BELIEVES IN THE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO?

PP RETURNS ARE SMALL AND BORING AND WE ALL HOPE FOR MORE

[I Shrugged]

I don't know if HB's book is too simple for some analytical types. I think maybe you need to have battle scars to appreciate it fully.

Sophie I would recommend Berstein's Four Pillars book. Assuming he is smart and analytical. It really showed me the error of my ways as far as using active funds, let alone stock picking.

[Hal]

So are the principles espoused by Benjamin Graham still valid today, or should you just say "I don't know what is going to happen" and go for the PP?

http://www.conscious-investor.com/books ... vestor.pdf

[stuper1]

Try:

15% Total Stock Market
15% Mid cap Value
25% Small cap Value
20% Long term Treasuries
25% Gold

Modeljc Butterfly? 7.7% REAL RETURNS

That might be why NO BELIEVES IN THE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO?

PP RETURNS ARE SMALL AND BORING AND WE ALL HOPE FOR MORE

Add in 10% to 15% cash, by removing say 5% SCV and 5% to 10% gold, and rebalance annually, and I'd say that would be a lot better portfolio than what most people have.

[Cortopassi]

I believe!

Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.

[farjean2]

I believe!

Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.

Judging from about 8 years in the PP, you can almost always count on gold and long bonds to lead the pack when there is bad news on the horizon. You just have to hope the bad news doesn't fully materialize.

[dualstow]

I believe!

Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.

https://i.imgur.com/UyHO6BL.png

Hey, didn't you just finish telling me not to jinx it?

[eufo]

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.

[Cortopassi]

I believe!

Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow, but the bond and gold bears continue to be wrong, and right. You just never know. TLT is coming back, and silver/gold are leading the pack.

https://i.imgur.com/UyHO6BL.png

Hey, didn't you just finish telling me not to jinx it?

I prefaced with "Gold could drop like a stone tomorrow..."

[frugal]

Hi pp friends.

Is there any low volatility and higher returns portfolio?

I believe not, so this is the best.

Am I right?

Happy easter!

[mathjak107]

depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .

a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..

to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .

to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.

so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .

[dualstow]

Happy Easter, Frugal,

[Jack Jones]

Frugal, I'm glad you're still out there. You keep doing you, man.

[modeljc]

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.

Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?

[mathjak107]

i toned it down to an extended market fund vxf after such a run up in small cap .

[eufo]

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails.

Would be interested in what GB per cent allocations you will be heading for? What will your final GB look like? Seems to me it would be hard to head to a 20% allocation in small cap value. It has had a big run. What is your plan for a final allocation and when do you enter things you don't own? Will you GB hold any Cash ECT?

I said semi-GB, but that's not really a fair assessment of where I'm going. When I began my transition a few months ago, I was headed towards:

20% LCB
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold
20% REIT

This was my semi-GB, swapping into REIT from STT.

Then I changed to:

20% LCV
20% MCV
20% SCV
20% LTT
20% Gold

Feeling thoroughly disappointed with ETF options for the Value equities, I decided to head toward using Blends instead.

My current monstrosity of a portfolio looks like this:

5% TSM
4% LCB
5% LCV
2% MCB
5% MCV
2% SCB
5% SCV
21% LTT
14% STT
22% Gold
4% REIT
11% Cash

Oddly enough, it's not a terrible portfolio... just looks ugly to my OCD. Plug it into Tyler's site and you'll see it's pretty smooth. 5.3% Real CAGR. Deepest Drawdown 11%, 2 years. Might be better than what I'm aiming for... *shrugs*

[dualstow]

Ha, that really is a monstrosity.

[Dieter]

Did you consider GB, but split SCV into SCV / ISB?

Or for more tilt, have stock allocation be 1/3 each of TSM, SCV, ISB.

Bonds 1/3 each to LTT, ITT, Cash/STT

But if it works for ya.....

[frugal]

depends what you consider a higher return and acceptable volatility .

a cd is lower volatility and the return for that volatility may be the best to you if that is an acceptable return that meets your goals ..

to me the gb is an acceptable return so i could say the same thing about the gb . for the return and volatility it is the best . best is a relative term .

to me the pp return vs volatility is not as an acceptable return as the gb.

so we all have our own ideas as what is best for the volatility , returns and our investment goals . .

hello

how are you?

GB is gold bullion?

What is your asset allocation now?

All the best.

[dualstow]

Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.

GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

[frugal]

Since mathjak often responds to questions that were asked of others, I'll return the favor.

GB = Golden Butterfly
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

hi

I think this one is from Tony Robbins.

GB is also very good.

A lot of people is changing from PP to GB?

What are the disadvantages?

Thank you so much.

[dualstow]

Well, only if Tony Robbins goes by "Tyler" on this forum.
Anyway, I think it's good too. Not *that* different from the pp.