Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Xan
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Xan » Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:25 am

It may be that those are the people attracted to investment forums. It may be that the PP is not unique in this regard.

Also, the respondents to that survey are not necessarily representative of everybody on this forum. Those are the subset of people here who happen to know their Myers-Briggs type. Seems to me (but maybe it's not true) that the "I"s are more likely to fit that description.
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Tyler
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Tyler » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:14 pm

Xan wrote: Also, the respondents to that survey are not necessarily representative of everybody on this forum. Those are the subset of people here who happen to know their Myers-Briggs type. Seems to me (but maybe it's not true) that the "I"s are more likely to fit that description.
In my own unscientific experience, whenever I see a reference to Myers-Briggs there's a 99% chance the author identifies as INT*. Rationally categorizing everything is part of the personality trait, after all. ;)
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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l82start
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by l82start » Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:30 pm

i have seen the topic of myers brigs come up on other forums over the years and the results are similar to here, it may be that "forum posting" itself as a form of communication is the draw to intj as much or more than the forums topics are.
“giant buys of toilet-paper during the corona out break - an investment that will inevitably to go to s#%t "

Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by technovelist » Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:21 pm

l82start wrote:i have seen the topic of myers brigs come up on other forums over the years and the results are similar to here, it may be that "forum posting" itself as a form of communication is the draw to intj as much or more than the forums topics are.
INTx are about 10x as common in online fora than in real life.
tim47
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by tim47 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:52 pm

Well, here is one ENFP... now I know why I do not contribute to the ongoing dialogue....
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:43 pm

tim47 wrote:Well, here is one ENFP... now I know why I do not contribute to the ongoing dialogue....
hah! Well you're not alone. I tested as an ENFP (borderline I), not that I believe in the test.
Took the test a very, verylong time ago. I remember my dad, an ISTJ, rubbing it in that most of the book's examples of enfp's were fictional characters. O0
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:02 pm

Even if you add 17 Billion invested in Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and 60 Billion in Ray Dalio Bridgewater Assoc. All Weather portfolio you still can't find many who Believe in the Permanent Portfolio. Also the Dalio All Weather is not a pure Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX is not very close either.

This is the best face I can put on being on the outside of the investment world and maybe being on the fringe.
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technovelist
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by technovelist » Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:13 pm

modeljc wrote:Even if you add 17 Billion invested in Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and 60 Billion in Ray Dalio Bridgewater Assoc. All Weather portfolio you still can't find many who Believe in the Permanent Portfolio. Also the Dalio All Weather is not a pure Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX is not very close either.

This is the best face I can put on being on the outside of the investment world and maybe being on the fringe.
I don't let others' opinions affect my investing strategy, other than of course if they point out something I've overlooked, e. g., Harry Browne's analyses. What I care about is how well my investing strategy does for me.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:12 am

The board is really quiet. That itself could be an indication of a market top. @Thebubblebubble Jesse Colombo of Forbes notes that people are following him less on Twitter, he preaches on bubbles. We also have the University of Michigan consumer sentiment poll where more than 10% of respondents think the stock market is 100% sure to go up in coming year.

After we get a bear market, and when it bottoms, everyone will be back... then it will time to go all in, not be in the PP
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by brajalle » Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:12 am

technovelist wrote:
l82start wrote:i have seen the topic of myers brigs come up on other forums over the years and the results are similar to here, it may be that "forum posting" itself as a form of communication is the draw to intj as much or more than the forums topics are.
INTx are about 10x as common in online fora than in real life.
Looking at the poll from this forum, I'd say the ratio is something like 20-30x. The numbers given for each INT is generally in the 2% range.
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technovelist
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by technovelist » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:50 am

brajalle wrote:
technovelist wrote:
l82start wrote:i have seen the topic of myers brigs come up on other forums over the years and the results are similar to here, it may be that "forum posting" itself as a form of communication is the draw to intj as much or more than the forums topics are.
INTx are about 10x as common in online fora than in real life.
Looking at the poll from this forum, I'd say the ratio is something like 20-30x. The numbers given for each INT is generally in the 2% range.
Well, if it's 2% for each of INTJ and INTP, that would be 4%. 30x that would be 120%. Is this the new math? :P
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by JFP_SF » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:43 pm

Given the big run-up in stocks over the last 8 years (and bonds too), most investors aren't really worrying about risk right now. Investing has fashions like everything else in human affairs.

Me, I worry all the time :)
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