Question for original forum members

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Xan
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:27 pm

Clive was banned after repeatedly claiming that the founders of this forum were effectively stealing from Harry Browne's widow by publishing their book.

The deletion of posts was all his idea. In fact he'd regularly delete his old posts long before the ban. I think he didn't want any of his words to be used against him.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by gizmo_rat » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:50 am

dualstow wrote: I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I'm still around and stuck with the PP. I'm about 85% PP and the remainder in 50/50 TSM/TBM. I was fairly anxious about taking on management of my investments as its not really my thing, but the PP does what it says on the box and I dont give it much thought.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:39 am

I wouldn't have known about the pp if it weren't for craigr's and medium-tex's posts on
the other forum. That led to my buying Harry's books, too. So, if that's stealing... ???
RIP Paul Volcker
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:58 am

i found harry back in the 1980's and read all his books back then . i still have my original copy of why the best laid investment plans usually go wrong .
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by technovelist » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:53 pm

Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by technovelist » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:58 pm

BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I qualify by your date and number of posts criteria.

However, I haven't held a HBPP for many years. I have been and remain much heavier in gold than that, and have no stocks or bonds. I do have a fairly sizable position in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available for purchase by US persons.

This allocation is primarily because I don't trust the US government or the stock market, not because of portfolio performance.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:32 pm

technovelist wrote:
Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
Or a diamond in the rough? O0
RIP Paul Volcker
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Dieter » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
technovelist wrote:
Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
Or a diamond in the rough? O0
"small" ;)
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Desert » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:30 pm

technovelist wrote:
Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
I believe you're a potted plant. :P
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Desert » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:32 pm

technovelist wrote:
BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I qualify by your date and number of posts criteria.

However, I haven't held a HBPP for many years. I have been and remain much heavier in gold than that, and have no stocks or bonds. I do have a fairly sizable position in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available for purchase by US persons.

This allocation is primarily because I don't trust the US government or the stock market, not because of portfolio performance.
Nobody really trusts any government or stock market, hence the existence of a risk premium and positive real returns.
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technovelist
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by technovelist » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:13 am

Desert wrote:
technovelist wrote:
BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I qualify by your date and number of posts criteria.

However, I haven't held a HBPP for many years. I have been and remain much heavier in gold than that, and have no stocks or bonds. I do have a fairly sizable position in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available for purchase by US persons.

This allocation is primarily because I don't trust the US government or the stock market, not because of portfolio performance.
Nobody really trusts any government or stock market, hence the existence of a risk premium and positive real returns.
Nope. If no one trusted the government, there would be no market for government bonds other than possibly the Fed.
And if no one trusted the stock market, stocks would have a much higher risk premium than they do.
Most people are sheep.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by 6 Iron » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:35 am

dualstow wrote:
I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I originally started investing in the PP in 2009. Still hold the PP, and it reflects about 96% of my portfolio. My only significant variation is holding 20% of the equities as international, and using some less than ideal short term bond funds for part of the cash in 401k's. I am nearing a rebalancing band due to LTT. When I first bought the PP, LTT's were yielding about 4.5% (sigh). I have reached a point where I could more comfortably invest in the VP, but have grown used to the "vanilla", sleeping soundly, and spending my energy on other pursuits. I check it once a quarter. I lurk here about the same frequency. It is good to see some old names.
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