Question for original forum members

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Khisanth
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Khisanth » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:56 pm

Still around since September 2011, but pretty much just lurking:

Currently 50% PP / 50% VP

PP consists of:
30.20% Cash
27.36% VTI
20.40% IAU / PHYS / GLD
22.05% TLT

VP Consists of individual stock in:
AAPL
TSLA
FB
NVDA

I did dabble in the 3X ETFs for a short period of time in 2012/2013? but didn't like the decay, so back to plain vanilla 4x25
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by KevinW » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:14 pm

Member since 2010, just shy of 1000 posts.
BearBones wrote: 1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
Nearly 100%. DW and I each have a 401k and IRA, and each of the 4 accounts is a separate, conventional 4x25 PP. There is a small legacy retirement account in PRPFX. The only ex-PP assets are operating cash in a checking account, and a small sentimental VP of DIS stock.
BearBones wrote: 2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
Nope. I've made some minor changes regarding the cash vehicles, and the PRPFX account, but everything has been a pure PP this whole time.
BearBones wrote: 3. If so, what do you favor?
Sometimes I ruminate about switching to a dividend fund like VYM. Part of me likes the idea of treating dividends as a sustainable cash flow while stoically ignoring NAV prices. This looks great in backtests, but I don't think I'd like it so much in practice.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Mar 15, 2017 4:16 pm

BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I've got around 47% of my total NW in the PP right now. I have moved to a simpler, more pure PP as time went on. Only TSM as my stocks, only gold bullion as my gold, and individually purchased treasuries (plus I and EE bonds) for cash and bonds.

All of my fuckery involves the VP.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Tortoise » Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:59 am

buddtholomew wrote: Tortoise, curious why you maintain a 12-month EF separate from the HBPP portfolio. I always have as well, but am now considering investing the EF cash evenly across the 4 assets. I appreciate the reduced volatility the cash provides but concerned losing substantially to inflation is a larger issue.
I maintain my 12-month EF separately from my PP because I maintain separate PPs in each type of account--taxable, 401k, and IRAs--and simply don't have enough taxable assets yet (aside from a home down payment that I will use soon) such that 25% of it would be enough for the 12-month EF.

Until I've accumulated 4+ years of living expenses in taxable investments, my taxable PP will be cash-heavy to ensure the cash portion is a 12-month EF. Over time, as my taxable assets grow, that 12-month EF will gradually become the 25% cash portion of a taxable PP.

Inflation sucks, but I view it as the "price" of holding cash for emergencies, ready to spend at a moment's notice.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Thomas Hoog » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:19 am

I have learned about the Permant Portfolio in 2002. I dont know when I discovered this forum
In 2002 I had about 70 % equities allocations so I moved to a modified PP [40% stocks, 20% gold, 30% LTT, 10% cash $/€ mixed].
With an average yield over 15 years of 6,1 % I have no reason to change the strategy so I still have the same allocation.
This vanilla PP portefeuille is about 95 % of my assets.
5 % is in a dividend focus equity portfolio because that is more fun to work on. The only flaw on the PP portfeuille is that it is very very boring.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by steve » Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:37 am

I'm still 100% invested in PP, I re-balance when necessary. I do not post much anymore because there really is not much to say that hasn't been said.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by smurff » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:36 pm

I have about 50% of financial assets in a 4 by 25 Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. It had been about 75%, but as I played around with individual stocks, that part of my Variable Portfolio took off. That said, I feel blessed that I started a PP. It gives a real sense of peace when it comes to what to do with one's assets.

I started my PP during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and I joined this list shortly after that. It was a godsend when I first started, because most of the financial advice out there focuses on stocks, mutual funds, and (for older people), bonds. I wanted to hear from experts with other perspectives, and there were (are) lots of them here.

I haven't posted since 2013, but I've been lurking and reading posts from New and old voices.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by EdwardjK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:59 pm

Regrettably you missed "Clive" and all his posts. I seem to recall he concluded the PP was not sufficiently diversified and moved on, after requesting all his posts be deleted.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by smurff » Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:46 pm

I remember Clive. He used to post colorful charts and tables, and argue about all kinds of stuff--especially his nonPP portfolio. He's probably still lurking, too.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Xan » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:27 pm

Clive was banned after repeatedly claiming that the founders of this forum were effectively stealing from Harry Browne's widow by publishing their book.

The deletion of posts was all his idea. In fact he'd regularly delete his old posts long before the ban. I think he didn't want any of his words to be used against him.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by gizmo_rat » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:50 am

dualstow wrote: I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I'm still around and stuck with the PP. I'm about 85% PP and the remainder in 50/50 TSM/TBM. I was fairly anxious about taking on management of my investments as its not really my thing, but the PP does what it says on the box and I dont give it much thought.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:39 am

I wouldn't have known about the pp if it weren't for craigr's and medium-tex's posts on
the other forum. That led to my buying Harry's books, too. So, if that's stealing... ???
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:58 am

i found harry back in the 1980's and read all his books back then . i still have my original copy of why the best laid investment plans usually go wrong .
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:53 pm

Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:58 pm

BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I qualify by your date and number of posts criteria.

However, I haven't held a HBPP for many years. I have been and remain much heavier in gold than that, and have no stocks or bonds. I do have a fairly sizable position in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available for purchase by US persons.

This allocation is primarily because I don't trust the US government or the stock market, not because of portfolio performance.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:32 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
Or a diamond in the rough? O0
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Dieter » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Desert wrote:
I think the PP, GB and other gold-heavy past return calculations need to be examined with a critical eye. The gold/dollar peg was removed in '72, and private gold ownership was legalized in '75. The resulting dollar/gold valuation reset in the 70's was dramatic, finally ending in a speculative gold bubble. The gold highs seen in 1980 weren't seen again (in real terms) for two decades. The likelihood of any real human holding onto a large allocation in gold during that period is small.
So what am I, chopped liver? :P
Or a diamond in the rough? O0
"small" ;)
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:13 am

Desert wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
BearBones wrote:I am wondering if some/many of the original high volume contributors have changed their perspective on the PP over the past few years.

So very specific question for those members (such as CraigR, MT, Gumby, Moda, Dualstow, Doodle, Stone, etc) that joined before 2013 AND have more than 1000 posts (i.e., the earliest active members):

1. About what % of your investments are still in the PP, if any?
2. Have you changed your portfolio over the past several years, given the favorable performance of the stock market and/or the recent change in interest rates?
3. If so, what do you favor?

Thanks!
I qualify by your date and number of posts criteria.

However, I haven't held a HBPP for many years. I have been and remain much heavier in gold than that, and have no stocks or bonds. I do have a fairly sizable position in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available for purchase by US persons.

This allocation is primarily because I don't trust the US government or the stock market, not because of portfolio performance.
Nobody really trusts any government or stock market, hence the existence of a risk premium and positive real returns.
Nope. If no one trusted the government, there would be no market for government bonds other than possibly the Fed.
And if no one trusted the stock market, stocks would have a much higher risk premium than they do.
Most people are sheep.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by 6 Iron » Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:35 am

dualstow wrote:
I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I originally started investing in the PP in 2009. Still hold the PP, and it reflects about 96% of my portfolio. My only significant variation is holding 20% of the equities as international, and using some less than ideal short term bond funds for part of the cash in 401k's. I am nearing a rebalancing band due to LTT. When I first bought the PP, LTT's were yielding about 4.5% (sigh). I have reached a point where I could more comfortably invest in the VP, but have grown used to the "vanilla", sleeping soundly, and spending my energy on other pursuits. I check it once a quarter. I lurk here about the same frequency. It is good to see some old names.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by sophie » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:00 am

6 Iron wrote:
dualstow wrote:
I do wonder about some of the early members like Wonk, gizmo-rat, 6 iron, WildAboutHarry, et al who seldom post now, or not at all. I want to know if they moved to a different strategy or just got tired of the forum, as the portfolio mostly runs itself.
I originally started investing in the PP in 2009. Still hold the PP, and it reflects about 96% of my portfolio. My only significant variation is holding 20% of the equities as international, and using some less than ideal short term bond funds for part of the cash in 401k's. I am nearing a rebalancing band due to LTT. When I first bought the PP, LTT's were yielding about 4.5% (sigh). I have reached a point where I could more comfortably invest in the VP, but have grown used to the "vanilla", sleeping soundly, and spending my energy on other pursuits. I check it once a quarter. I lurk here about the same frequency. It is good to see some old names.

The voice of wisdom. Thank you for posting this!
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by DragonJoey3 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:58 pm

I mean, I learned about the PP in 2011 and joined the forum in 2012. I have nowhere near 1000 posts because as others have said, there isn't a lot to talk about for a portfolio that's just so good at what it does. (though I look forward to the next 2008-like crash where the chatter will undoubtedly pick up with new converts.)

I have a small problem where my 401k doesn't allow me to buy gold, so my PP is out of balance, but I hope to put enough into savings outside the 401k to eventually balance it completely. Just working my way towards 25/25/25/25 has been profitable, and at this point I would say close to 80% of my assets are in the PP. I also put my parents money (which I help manage for them) in the PP and it's been good to them.

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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:28 pm

Very good responses here, IMO. I wish my folks were as openminded as dragonJoey's. I got my dad into Wellesley. Good enough.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by foglifter » Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:57 pm

I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sole stock index fund. Some folks here encouraged me to fight for a better 401k provider (thank you!). I tried and tried and felt like hitting a wall as nothing happened. Being a small company we switched every couple years to various payroll/benefits providers, which required essentially liquidation of all 401k asstes and moving to a new provider. Then, all of a sudden, one day my patience was rewarded. Our HR finally decoupled our 401k from the payroll provider and moved the plan to Employee Fiduciary (which I researched and recommended). I couldn't believe it happened, I was happy! You can imagine what I felt when the provider sent me a clean Excel spreadsheet asking to fill in the funds and ETFs I wanted to have in the new plan. Now we have a plan with 30+ Vanguard funds and a few ETFs - including IAU and TLT! So now I have a full-fledged PP in my 401k.

As to any changes over the last few years: as many folks here, I've decided to move into GB after reading 3 times through several GB-related discussions and spending hours on portfoliovisualizer.com. I've sliced the equity bucket further to include some international small caps using DGS and VSS, but the bulk is in TSM. As to my cash portion, I don't keep cash in retirement accounts, instead I'm using my high yield savings accounts at Ally bank and Alliant CU. Gold is split between physical and IAU.

I still hang around at the forum. Since the forum has become less active I set up alerts for new posts a couple of sections (Permanent and Variable Portfolio) and it actually works well - I do get to read the new posts and when I land at the forum I can check some older threads to refresh my mind.

I'm happy to report that I "converted" three friends into PP. Just a few days ago I had a pleasure of helping one of them to move a pile of cash in his rollover Vanguard IRA into GB. Vanguard's website could use some UI redo for sure - the Buy/Sell link is hard to find! I joked to my friend that they probably don't want you to trade often. Although, if that's the case I'd hide the Sell button and make the Buy button bigger. Myself being a happy Fidelity customer it was annoying to spend time trying to get used to Vanguard's tricky UI. :D
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by stuper1 » Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:30 pm

foglifter wrote:I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sole stock index fund. Some folks here encouraged me to fight for a better 401k provider (thank you!). I tried and tried and felt like hitting a wall as nothing happened. Being a small company we switched every couple years to various payroll/benefits providers, which required essentially liquidation of all 401k asstes and moving to a new provider. Then, all of a sudden, one day my patience was rewarded. Our HR finally decoupled our 401k from the payroll provider and moved the plan to Employee Fiduciary (which I researched and recommended). I couldn't believe it happened, I was happy! You can imagine what I felt when the provider sent me a clean Excel spreadsheet asking to fill in the funds and ETFs I wanted to have in the new plan. Now we have a plan with 30+ Vanguard funds and a few ETFs - including IAU and TLT! So now I have a full-fledged PP in my 401k.

As to any changes over the last few years: as many folks here, I've decided to move into GB after reading 3 times through several GB-related discussions and spending hours on portfoliovisualizer.com. I've sliced the equity bucket further to include some international small caps using DGS and VSS, but the bulk is in TSM. As to my cash portion, I don't keep cash in retirement accounts, instead I'm using my high yield savings accounts at Ally bank and Alliant CU. Gold is split between physical and IAU.

I still hang around at the forum. Since the forum has become less active I set up alerts for new posts a couple of sections (Permanent and Variable Portfolio) and it actually works well - I do get to read the new posts and when I land at the forum I can check some older threads to refresh my mind.

I'm happy to report that I "converted" three friends into PP. Just a few days ago I had a pleasure of helping one of them to move a pile of cash in his rollover Vanguard IRA into GB. Vanguard's website could use some UI redo for sure - the Buy/Sell link is hard to find! I joked to my friend that they probably don't want you to trade often. Although, if that's the case I'd hide the Sell button and make the Buy button bigger. Myself being a happy Fidelity customer it was annoying to spend time trying to get used to Vanguard's tricky UI. :D
Very impressive both that you got your 401k changed and converted some friends to PP thinking. If you aren't somehow in a sales-oriented profession, you ought to be, because I bet you would make a killing.
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Re: Question for original forum members

Post by modeljc » Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:44 pm

stuper1 wrote:
foglifter wrote:I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sole stock index fund. Some folks here encouraged me to fight for a better 401k provider (thank you!). I tried and tried and felt like hitting a wall as nothing happened. Being a small company we switched every couple years to various payroll/benefits providers, which required essentially liquidation of all 401k asstes and moving to a new provider. Then, all of a sudden, one day my patience was rewarded. Our HR finally decoupled our 401k from the payroll provider and moved the plan to Employee Fiduciary (which I researched and recommended). I couldn't believe it happened, I was happy! You can imagine what I felt when the provider sent me a clean Excel spreadsheet asking to fill in the funds and ETFs I wanted to have in the new plan. Now we have a plan with 30+ Vanguard funds and a few ETFs - including IAU and TLT! So now I have a full-fledged PP in my 401k.

As to any changes over the last few years: as many folks here, I've decided to move into GB after reading 3 times through several GB-related discussions and spending hours on portfoliovisualizer.com. I've sliced the equity bucket further to include some international small caps using DGS and VSS, but the bulk is in TSM. As to my cash portion, I don't keep cash in retirement accounts, instead I'm using my high yield savings accounts at Ally bank and Alliant CU. Gold is split between physical and IAU.

I still hang around at the forum. Since the forum has become less active I set up alerts for new posts a couple of sections (Permanent and Variable Portfolio) and it actually works well - I do get to read the new posts and when I land at the forum I can check some older threads to refresh my mind.

I'm happy to report that I "converted" three friends into PP. Just a few days ago I had a pleasure of helping one of them to move a pile of cash in his rollover Vanguard IRA into GB. Vanguard's website could use some UI redo for sure - the Buy/Sell link is hard to find! I joked to my friend that they probably don't want you to trade often. Although, if that's the case I'd hide the Sell button and make the Buy button bigger. Myself being a happy Fidelity customer it was annoying to spend time trying to get used to Vanguard's tricky UI. :D
Very impressive both that you got your 401k changed and converted some friends to PP thinking. If you aren't somehow in a sales-oriented profession, you ought to be, because I bet you would make a killing.

I told my three children, my friends, given the book to number of others and I do not have one convert! Like I say NO BODY BELIEVES IN THE PP.
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