PP Performance for 2016

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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LC475
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by LC475 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:43 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:SigFig is rounding the hundredth
Apt.
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:49 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:C'mon budd, you've been here long enough to know the drill; 3 steps forward, 2.88 steps back.
Oh I know the drill well...
Mr Vacuum
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by Mr Vacuum » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:39 pm

dualstow wrote:Thanks, Shrugged.

I have developed an even simpler method. I merely monitor threads like this. O0
Fiddling with XIRR is good, clean fun because your asset allocation and trades are off the table. All that counts are your start and end values and dates and amounts of contributions of withdrawals. The main temptation in looking at it is to contribute more money. (Please follow your personal family budget change process before doing this.)

I find it worthwhile to track inflows and outflows in one place, regardless. Then if you already have something set up to update prices, the XIRR calculation takes care of itself and you have your very own number. I download and import a Fidelity portfolio positions csv file when I want to check. That combined with automatic spot gold price updates is about the right amount of hassle for me to check easily but not constantly.
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ozzy
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by ozzy » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:19 pm

Hi All,

For 2016 my "Juicy" Permanent Portfolio returned 9.69%. My sloppy website: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

Make America Great Again!
barrett
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by barrett » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:13 am

ozzy wrote:For 2016 my "Juicy" Permanent Portfolio returned 9.69%. My sloppy website: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html
Thanks for posting, Ozzy. For those who don't go to the website (which is not as sloppy as Ozzy claims!), here's the asset breakdown:

30% LTTs
15% Gold (IAU)
55% Stocks
No Cash

Stocks are broken down as follows:

15% TSM
15% Mid-Cap
10% Small-Cap
15% Intl. Small-Cap
thisisallen
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by thisisallen » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:47 am

Wouldn't including Cash bring the CGAR in the Juicy Portfolio more in line with the traditional 4X25?
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Desert
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by Desert » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:19 am

thisisallen wrote:Wouldn't including Cash bring the CGAR in the Juicy Portfolio more in line with the traditional 4X25?
The Juicy is a pretty different portfolio than the 4x25, with the 55% equity, and the wider diversification of that equity in several higher risk/return buckets. It looks great. It would be interesting to look at this portfolio on Tyler's site and compare it with the GB.

Speaking of interesting portfolios, one of my favorites is the trusty old Vanguard Wellesley fund. Many of us have spent quite a bit of time backtesting various asset allocations, but the Wellesley fund stands alone as an allocation real people have invested in since its inception in 1970. While not as diversified as the HBPP and its various derivations, it has delivered outstanding returns with very low volatility for almost 5 decades.
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by Thomas Hoog » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:57 am

sophie wrote:It sounds like Gerard is holding a USD PP, and that some of the return this past year was the dollar increasing against the euro.

That worked out well this year, but you've taken on some currency risk that may not be necessary. The gold component is enough currency risk, since its price in local currency will reflect its value (high or low). I can understand wanting to hold US Treasuries rather than German long bonds, but are you also holding the cash allocation in dollars?
In my own portfeuille:
Equities are maybe 30 % $ based / 70 % € based
LT bonds are 25 % $ based / 75 % € based
Gold is 50 % $ based / 50 € based
Cash is 100 % € based.

The benchmark Euro standard PP portfeuille is 100 % € based.
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KevinW
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by KevinW » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:55 pm

Most of our funds are in plain 4x25 PPs, so those were in the ballpark of the 5.88% Sophie cited. DW also has a PRPFX holding which, I see, was up about 9% in 2016.

No plans to do anything different in 2017; we'll just keep chipping in and rebalancing as needed.
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:01 pm

From Saxo Bank/Steen Jakobsen

Image

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/10/steen-j ... ties-gold/

Looks like his standard allocation is a PP, and he is varying greatly for 2017/Trump.
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buddtholomew
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:From Saxo Bank/Steen Jakobsen

Image

https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/10/steen-j ... ties-gold/

Looks like his standard allocation is a PP, and he is varying greatly for 2017/Trump.
Cortopassi, the only difference I see is -5% for equities and + 5% for commodities. 50% in fixed income is the same as 25% fixed income, 25% cash.
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I Shrugged
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Re: PP Performance for 2016

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:41 am

He must be saying to use the cash to invest in bonds, on which he must be very bullish.
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