Is The Big Crash Coming?

[Cortopassi]

You know what PP investing has done for me? Convinced me yet again that I suck at market timing and whenever I have thoughts I could do better, very quickly the market moves 180 different than I expected.

Thursday, I rebalanced everything to match what I am most happy with. Call it the Corto portfolio. A little more precious metals (30%) and stocks (35%) basically, taken from the cash portion.

Friday, spent lamenting how if I only waiting one more day I could have gotten in at such better prices

Monday, if you are one who could have foretold this immediate rebound, kudos to you. I expected more downward movement.

These three days have shown me (again) it is useless to try to time anything. If you feel you need to rebalance, just do it.

[dualstow]

Don't sweat it, Corto. In a few years (or less), it won't seem like much.

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

Thursday, I rebalanced everything to match what I am most happy with. Call it the Corto portfolio. A little more precious metals (30%) and stocks (35%) basically, taken from the cash portion.

This is common. Many people see deflation as almost impossible but inflation as assured, and 25% of the portfolio in cash as nothing but opportunity cost. I do this as well. 3% cash, the rest is split 3 ways.

[Reub]

A second crash after Monday's recovery. Stocks, bonds and gold all down! Is this the 8th year big one again?

[dualstow]

A second crash after Monday's recovery. Stocks, bonds and gold all down! Is this the 8th year big one again?

Can we even call this a crash, though?
Stocks are way higher than I dreamed they would be this year. They've got to come down, Reub.

[Cortopassi]

What is the 8th year big one?

[Reub]

What artificially goes up doesn't always come down gently.

[Cortopassi]

So you are thinking the likely scenario: stocks and bonds both get pummeled, and the effort to keep gold down continues to also be successful, so PP goes from being a great place to be to hell?

And my 14+% gain from a week ago will be in the 10s after a couple mutual funds are priced tonight.

Not like I have anyplace better to be invested in.

[buddtholomew]

My gut feeling is to buy this pullback as it resembles every other pullback prior to an interest rate decision.
That concerns me since I am always incorrect so have decided to do nothing at this time.
Look at the positive, we are up 10%+ YTD.

[wolfgango]

When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.

This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?

[Cortopassi]

This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?

It's all subjective, right? I suppose you could look at DXY in relation to the times you add cash to your account and do a delta to see if it is "up" or "down" but that doesn't change the number of dollars.

Or compare to a basket of items you normally buy during the year, food, household items, dining, etc?

Too much trouble. I wish it could just sit in a 5% money market!

[MachineGhost]

A crash? Give me a break you Chicken Littles.

A crash is when you lose almost 30% in a day aka October 19 ,1987.

That's probably gonna happen if Trump wins the election.

[Reub]

This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?

It's all subjective, right? I suppose you could look at DXY in relation to the times you add cash to your account and do a delta to see if it is "up" or "down" but that doesn't change the number of dollars.

Or compare to a basket of items you normally buy during the year, food, household items, dining, etc?

Too much trouble. I wish it could just sit in a 5% money market!

Is the PP becoming a basket of deplorables?

[MachineGhost]

When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.

This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?

I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EUSDOLLAR?ltr=1

It is an equal weighted basket of four currencies: AUD, JPY, GBP and EUR.

[buddtholomew]

The anxiety is most likely attributed to all 3 non-cash assets declining in unison. They did all go up in lockstep too.

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:

Thanks, good find.

While we're asking questions, why do all normal people think everyone with different opinions is a "troll?" People post cute pictures about the importance of respecting different opinions, and american libertarian types say things like "I may not like what you say but I'd die to defend your right to say it," but it's obviously just lip service, they will treat you like garbage for your crime of saying something they don't believe, and these are the "freedom of opinion" people. As a society, why do we even pretend anymore? Why not just openly say "conform or get out?" It would sound uglier but be more honest, since that's how people really behave.

[l82start]

I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:

Thanks, good find.

While we're asking questions, why do all normal people think everyone with different opinions is a "troll?" People post cute pictures about the importance of respecting different opinions, and american libertarian types say things like "I may not like what you say but I'd die to defend your right to say it," but it's obviously just lip service, they will treat you like garbage for your crime of saying something they don't believe, and these are the "freedom of opinion" people. As a society, why do we even pretend anymore? Why not just openly say "conform or get out?" It would sound uglier but be more honest, since that's how people really behave.

its not the different opinion that makes somebody a troll its the method of delivery and the purpose behind it, if you throw out some unconventional and inflammatory idea (that you may or may not believe) with the intent of getting a rise out of readers, with no intention of defending the idea only doing it to cause a reaction.... you are TROLLING..

if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...

Debate doesn't ensue because things happen the reverse from what you said.

You proposed that somebody trolls, so they are avoided.

The more common reality is somebody is avoided, so they are declared a troll, then the primary reason for their being avoided is never considered.

It's not unlike defining physical assault as "beating someone until they fall down," then having people fall down and scream "NO!!! STOP ASSAULTING ME!" when an unpopular person merely shakes their hand, regardless of the cause of their unpopularity.

Most places online aren't full of "trolls" running from debates, it's "trolls" saying "hey let's discuss this topic" and nobody touching it.

[dualstow]

Blood drinker, I don't think you're a troll, but you have some Alt-Right ideas that you must know are going to get some people riled up.
It's not merely a difference of opinion when you say Africans are bound to fail because they're Africans. It's racism, pure and simple.
Now you're obviously entitled to that opinion, and in many outlets you're even entitled to voice that opinion (at the discretion of a site's owner of course), but it's a bit naive to think there will be no pushback.

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

Blood drinker, I don't think you're a troll, but you have some Alt-Right ideas that you must know are going to get some people riled up.
It's not merely a difference of opinion when you say Africans are bound to fail because they're Africans. It's racism, pure and simple.
Now you're obviously entitled to that opinion, and in many outlets you're even entitled to voice that opinion (at the discretion of a site's owner of course), but it's a bit naive to think there will be no pushback.

Noted. Just FYI, there were nordicists long before there were Nazis, much less before there was any "alt right."

[dualstow]

Noted. Just FYI, there were nordicists long before there were Nazis, much less before there was any "alt right."

Yeah, I probably could have picked a better term than Alt Right. Is nordicist the term you prefer?

[IDrinkBloodLOL]

Yeah, I probably could have picked a better term than Alt Right. Is nordicist the term you prefer?

Yeah, generally.

[l82start]

if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...

Debate doesn't ensue because things happen the reverse from what you said.

You proposed that somebody trolls, so they are avoided.

The more common reality is somebody is avoided, so they are declared a troll, then the primary reason for their being avoided is never considered.

It's not unlike defining physical assault as "beating someone until they fall down," then having people fall down and scream "NO!!! STOP ASSAULTING ME!" when an unpopular person merely shakes their hand, regardless of the cause of their unpopularity.

Most places online aren't full of "trolls" running from debates, it's "trolls" saying "hey let's discuss this topic" and nobody touching it.

trolls don't run from debate they don't debate at all... their goal isn't reason, its getting a reaction, preferably a negative or angry one.. if nobody wants to touch your topic, or mistakes you for a troll, it is due to poor delivery and suspect motive, it doesn't matter if you are looking to cause anger fan flames and create conflict or you just don't have the forum posting skills to broach a subject in a way that avoids those things, the reaction you get will be the same.. (being called out for trolling)

there are some touchy topics that will inherently get a "your a troll" reaction from the oversensitive and easily upset type, but most of the people here are not that sensitive and have been on the Internet long enough to recognize when somebody is trying to stir up shit, or to recognize that someone is just plain incapable of communicating in a way that avoids it...

you may also have noticed that in-spite of some of your comments being indistinguishable from trolling, and your having been called out on them by forum members, nobody freaked out, or got angry, and you haven't been banned or warned, and some intelligent commentary and discussion of your comments/topics were made..

if somebody is truly trolling this forum the ban hammer will be dropped without hesitation by myself or the other mod/admins....

[Reub]

So staitng one's opinion without having the inclination to defend it to those who are incalcitrant is considered trolling? Good to know!