Is The Big Crash Coming?
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- Cortopassi
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
You know what PP investing has done for me? Convinced me yet again that I suck at market timing and whenever I have thoughts I could do better, very quickly the market moves 180 different than I expected.
Thursday, I rebalanced everything to match what I am most happy with. Call it the Corto portfolio. A little more precious metals (30%) and stocks (35%) basically, taken from the cash portion.
Friday, spent lamenting how if I only waiting one more day I could have gotten in at such better prices
Monday, if you are one who could have foretold this immediate rebound, kudos to you. I expected more downward movement.
These three days have shown me (again) it is useless to try to time anything. If you feel you need to rebalance, just do it.
Thursday, I rebalanced everything to match what I am most happy with. Call it the Corto portfolio. A little more precious metals (30%) and stocks (35%) basically, taken from the cash portion.
Friday, spent lamenting how if I only waiting one more day I could have gotten in at such better prices
Monday, if you are one who could have foretold this immediate rebound, kudos to you. I expected more downward movement.
These three days have shown me (again) it is useless to try to time anything. If you feel you need to rebalance, just do it.
- dualstow
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Don't sweat it, Corto. In a few years (or less), it won't seem like much.
- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
This is common. Many people see deflation as almost impossible but inflation as assured, and 25% of the portfolio in cash as nothing but opportunity cost. I do this as well. 3% cash, the rest is split 3 ways.Cortopassi wrote: Thursday, I rebalanced everything to match what I am most happy with. Call it the Corto portfolio. A little more precious metals (30%) and stocks (35%) basically, taken from the cash portion.
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
A second crash after Monday's recovery. Stocks, bonds and gold all down! Is this the 8th year big one again?
- dualstow
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Can we even call this a crash, though?Reub wrote:A second crash after Monday's recovery. Stocks, bonds and gold all down! Is this the 8th year big one again?
Stocks are way higher than I dreamed they would be this year. They've got to come down, Reub.
- Cortopassi
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
What is the 8th year big one?
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
What artificially goes up doesn't always come down gently.
- Cortopassi
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
So you are thinking the likely scenario: stocks and bonds both get pummeled, and the effort to keep gold down continues to also be successful, so PP goes from being a great place to be to hell?
And my 14+% gain from a week ago will be in the 10s after a couple mutual funds are priced tonight.
Not like I have anyplace better to be invested in.
And my 14+% gain from a week ago will be in the 10s after a couple mutual funds are priced tonight.
Not like I have anyplace better to be invested in.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
My gut feeling is to buy this pullback as it resembles every other pullback prior to an interest rate decision.
That concerns me since I am always incorrect so have decided to do nothing at this time.
Look at the positive, we are up 10%+ YTD.
That concerns me since I am always incorrect so have decided to do nothing at this time.
Look at the positive, we are up 10%+ YTD.
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.
- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?wolfgango wrote:When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.
- Cortopassi
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
It's all subjective, right? I suppose you could look at DXY in relation to the times you add cash to your account and do a delta to see if it is "up" or "down" but that doesn't change the number of dollars.IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?
Or compare to a basket of items you normally buy during the year, food, household items, dining, etc?
Too much trouble. I wish it could just sit in a 5% money market!
- MachineGhost
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
A crash? Give me a break you Chicken Littles.
A crash is when you lose almost 30% in a day aka October 19 ,1987.
That's probably gonna happen if Trump wins the election.
A crash is when you lose almost 30% in a day aka October 19 ,1987.
That's probably gonna happen if Trump wins the election.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Cortopassi wrote:It's all subjective, right? I suppose you could look at DXY in relation to the times you add cash to your account and do a delta to see if it is "up" or "down" but that doesn't change the number of dollars.IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?
Or compare to a basket of items you normally buy during the year, food, household items, dining, etc?
Too much trouble. I wish it could just sit in a 5% money market!
Is the PP becoming a basket of deplorables?
- MachineGhost
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:This brings up an interesting point: how can we know what the value of cash is doing?wolfgango wrote:When the 3 non cash assets drop I see the cash portion carrying or greatly mitigating the drop. In relation to the others cash is up so to speak.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EUSDOLLAR?ltr=1
It is an equal weighted basket of four currencies: AUD, JPY, GBP and EUR.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
- buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
The anxiety is most likely attributed to all 3 non-cash assets declining in unison. They did all go up in lockstep too.
- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Thanks, good find.MachineGhost wrote: I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:
While we're asking questions, why do all normal people think everyone with different opinions is a "troll?" People post cute pictures about the importance of respecting different opinions, and american libertarian types say things like "I may not like what you say but I'd die to defend your right to say it," but it's obviously just lip service, they will treat you like garbage for your crime of saying something they don't believe, and these are the "freedom of opinion" people. As a society, why do we even pretend anymore? Why not just openly say "conform or get out?" It would sound uglier but be more honest, since that's how people really behave.
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
its not the different opinion that makes somebody a troll its the method of delivery and the purpose behind it, if you throw out some unconventional and inflammatory idea (that you may or may not believe) with the intent of getting a rise out of readers, with no intention of defending the idea only doing it to cause a reaction.... you are TROLLING..IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:Thanks, good find.MachineGhost wrote: I thought you were a troll? But you can use this:
While we're asking questions, why do all normal people think everyone with different opinions is a "troll?" People post cute pictures about the importance of respecting different opinions, and american libertarian types say things like "I may not like what you say but I'd die to defend your right to say it," but it's obviously just lip service, they will treat you like garbage for your crime of saying something they don't believe, and these are the "freedom of opinion" people. As a society, why do we even pretend anymore? Why not just openly say "conform or get out?" It would sound uglier but be more honest, since that's how people really behave.
if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...
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- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Debate doesn't ensue because things happen the reverse from what you said.l82start wrote: if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...
You proposed that somebody trolls, so they are avoided.
The more common reality is somebody is avoided, so they are declared a troll, then the primary reason for their being avoided is never considered.
It's not unlike defining physical assault as "beating someone until they fall down," then having people fall down and scream "NO!!! STOP ASSAULTING ME!" when an unpopular person merely shakes their hand, regardless of the cause of their unpopularity.
Most places online aren't full of "trolls" running from debates, it's "trolls" saying "hey let's discuss this topic" and nobody touching it.
- dualstow
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Blood drinker, I don't think you're a troll, but you have some Alt-Right ideas that you must know are going to get some people riled up.
It's not merely a difference of opinion when you say Africans are bound to fail because they're Africans. It's racism, pure and simple.
Now you're obviously entitled to that opinion, and in many outlets you're even entitled to voice that opinion (at the discretion of a site's owner of course), but it's a bit naive to think there will be no pushback.
It's not merely a difference of opinion when you say Africans are bound to fail because they're Africans. It's racism, pure and simple.
Now you're obviously entitled to that opinion, and in many outlets you're even entitled to voice that opinion (at the discretion of a site's owner of course), but it's a bit naive to think there will be no pushback.
- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Noted. Just FYI, there were nordicists long before there were Nazis, much less before there was any "alt right."dualstow wrote:Blood drinker, I don't think you're a troll, but you have some Alt-Right ideas that you must know are going to get some people riled up.
It's not merely a difference of opinion when you say Africans are bound to fail because they're Africans. It's racism, pure and simple.
Now you're obviously entitled to that opinion, and in many outlets you're even entitled to voice that opinion (at the discretion of a site's owner of course), but it's a bit naive to think there will be no pushback.
- dualstow
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Yeah, I probably could have picked a better term than Alt Right. Is nordicist the term you prefer?IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:Noted. Just FYI, there were nordicists long before there were Nazis, much less before there was any "alt right."
- IDrinkBloodLOL
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
Yeah, generally.dualstow wrote:Yeah, I probably could have picked a better term than Alt Right. Is nordicist the term you prefer?
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:Debate doesn't ensue because things happen the reverse from what you said.l82start wrote: if you believe something weird or unconventional, make your case in a non inflammatory way, and step up to defend it when a rational debate ensues. if you cant do that you will be called out for trolling.. and rightly so...
You proposed that somebody trolls, so they are avoided.
The more common reality is somebody is avoided, so they are declared a troll, then the primary reason for their being avoided is never considered.
It's not unlike defining physical assault as "beating someone until they fall down," then having people fall down and scream "NO!!! STOP ASSAULTING ME!" when an unpopular person merely shakes their hand, regardless of the cause of their unpopularity.
Most places online aren't full of "trolls" running from debates, it's "trolls" saying "hey let's discuss this topic" and nobody touching it.
trolls don't run from debate they don't debate at all... their goal isn't reason, its getting a reaction, preferably a negative or angry one.. if nobody wants to touch your topic, or mistakes you for a troll, it is due to poor delivery and suspect motive, it doesn't matter if you are looking to cause anger fan flames and create conflict or you just don't have the forum posting skills to broach a subject in a way that avoids those things, the reaction you get will be the same.. (being called out for trolling)
there are some touchy topics that will inherently get a "your a troll" reaction from the oversensitive and easily upset type, but most of the people here are not that sensitive and have been on the Internet long enough to recognize when somebody is trying to stir up shit, or to recognize that someone is just plain incapable of communicating in a way that avoids it...
you may also have noticed that in-spite of some of your comments being indistinguishable from trolling, and your having been called out on them by forum members, nobody freaked out, or got angry, and you haven't been banned or warned, and some intelligent commentary and discussion of your comments/topics were made..
if somebody is truly trolling this forum the ban hammer will be dropped without hesitation by myself or the other mod/admins....
-Government 2020+ - a BANANA REPUBLIC - if you can keep it
-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?
So staitng one's opinion without having the inclination to defend it to those who are incalcitrant is considered trolling? Good to know!