Is The Big Crash Coming?

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Reub
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Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by Reub » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:16 am

It's been 8 years of almost uninterrupted U.S. bond and stock gains, which is a long time. It's now September, the worst month of the year for stocks historically. Bond yields world wide seem to be rising. And possibly most importantly, its the end of 8 years in office by a President. The market crashed in 2000 as Bill Clinton was leaving. It crashed in 2008 as Bush was leaving. Now the 8 years of Obama is about to end. Will we get the same result? Markets are down across the board today as volume has picked up so this may be skewing my view of things. Help me, Budd!
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Cortopassi
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:18 am

Must be coming since I decided Wed and Thurs this week was a good time for me to fully be done rebalancing to a more golden butterfly portfolio.

And everything in the portfolio is getting hammered!
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buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:22 am

Reub, hang in there my man.
The only activity I would consider is rebalancing to target allocations.
We will experience a crash at some point, but I feel like the PP airbags will do just fine.
I could be wrong, but I'm not willing to guess by getting out and then trying to get back in.
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:39 am

Reub wrote:It's been 8 years of almost uninterrupted U.S. bond and stock gains, which is a long time. It's now September, the worst month of the year for stocks historically. Bond yields world wide seem to be rising. And possibly most importantly, its the end of 8 years in office by a President. The market crashed in 2000 as Bill Clinton was leaving. It crashed in 2008 as Bush was leaving. Now the 8 years of Obama is about to end. Will we get the same result? Markets are down across the board today as volume has picked up so this may be skewing my view of things. Help me, Budd!
Eh, we're just going through the seasonally worst 2-3 weeks of the year. Something about the equinox, S.A.D. or shift from summer to autumn. Silly humans. So get your ammo ready. If we get a double dip out of it, look for Brinker to even make another call!

Speculation: This might be the last rally left in Treasuries before the SHTF.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 09, 2016 10:26 am

Cortopassi wrote:Must be coming since I decided Wed and Thurs this week was a good time for me to fully be done rebalancing to a more golden butterfly portfolio.

And everything in the portfolio is getting hammered!
Everything except inverse funds are declining today.
If you can rebalance back to the GB allocation then you know it's the portfolio for you.
Your test just came sooner than later.
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by Reub » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:13 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
Reub wrote:It's been 8 years of almost uninterrupted U.S. bond and stock gains, which is a long time. It's now September, the worst month of the year for stocks historically. Bond yields world wide seem to be rising. And possibly most importantly, its the end of 8 years in office by a President. The market crashed in 2000 as Bill Clinton was leaving. It crashed in 2008 as Bush was leaving. Now the 8 years of Obama is about to end. Will we get the same result? Markets are down across the board today as volume has picked up so this may be skewing my view of things. Help me, Budd!
Eh, we're just going through the seasonally worst 2-3 weeks of the year. Something about the equinox, S.A.D. or shift from summer to autumn. Silly humans. So get your ammo ready. If we get a double dip out of it, look for Brinker to even make another call!

Speculation: This might be the last rally left in Treasuries before the SHTF.
Do you mean before treasury prices fall precipitously? I wouldn't call today a treasury rally....except for their yields.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:21 pm

Rally=rising interest rates.
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MachineGhost
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:19 pm

I assumed flight to safety but today definitely looks like a Tight Money scare.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:30 am

We can expect more of the below as yields ratchet higher and higher over the next 40 years?

Image
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:01 am

MachineGhost wrote:Speculation: This might be the last rally left in Treasuries before the SHTF.
It would be great if nothing happened Yellen did nothing at least until December, and long bonds continued to do well. If TLT goes back to 140, I'll be tempted to unload some more bonds.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:18 pm

MachineGhost wrote:We can expect more of the below as yields ratchet higher and higher over the next 40 years?

Image
The way I read the relationship is if equities decline, TLO increases (yields decline).
Friday shows US equities -2.5, TLO -1.5
40 years hence shows US equities down -1.5 and TLO positive 2.5.
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Re: Is The Big Crash Coming?

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:22 pm

There have been articles stating that stocks and bonds move together way more than they used to.
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