Gyroscopic Investing

Thought yall might enjoy and might have some opinions.

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/whe ... ble-20185/

I dont agree with his long bond comment since he also presumes negatively trending interest rates. And Ive seem the same comments about long bonds over the last few years in forums like these and others.

bitcoininthevp wrote:Thought yall might enjoy and might have some opinions.

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/whe ... ble-20185/

I dont agree with his long bond comment since he also presumes negatively trending interest rates. And Ive seem the same comments about long bonds over the last few years in forums like these and others.

It seems like we're doomed to repeat the Great Depression all over again. Only this time there won't be any gold to confiscate to induce inflation. Feels like its the end of the line. Without a trade war, we're probably going to have a currency and debt war instead.

By any measure the US economy is doing quite nicely. As you call it that link was pure doom porn.

"So on a risk-adjusted basis, the portfolio posted very strong returns for decades. Until now."
This has been posted in many PP articles for years. Everyone is always convinced it's just about to stop working.

"Bonds have become foolish investments."
This opinion is based on current monetary policy and economic conditions. We all know how those predictions work out.

"...cash is becoming dangerous to own..." "...The latest assault from the establishment on physical cash..."
The idea of holding 1/4 of a retirement fund in physical cash is pretty extreme. I'm not sure where he got that idea, since Harry Browne clearly advocates Treasury Bills.

"Yet so many markets around the world are in bubble territory right now with valuations near all-time highs."
This has been said about the stock market since the stock market began, and it's getting old.

"As for the original Permanent Portfolio asset classes, gold still shines."
Now the bias is obvious. If gold is truly the only asset worth owning then I guess I'll join Ron Swanson and bury my future under a tree.


One day, the PP may stop working and we'll all be forced to find something else. That's not today though. Up 6.13% Nominal YTD so far.

The article is dated 9/6/16 but the PP performance data cited runs only from 1970 to 1998. Loses credibility for me right out of the gate.

Timing is everything.

AND

The market will flunctuate.

The article is definitely doom porn. But putting that aside, I think the article is going off-topic by talking about physical cash being banned. While that is something that could possibly happen in the future, I don't see how that affects the PP significantly. I don't keep my PP cash in my mattress, and I doubt many others do, either. My PP cash is in a mutual fund. Negative interests rates in the US could potentially be an issue that could hurt returns and reduce the value of the dollar, but I'm currently making .01% on my cash, so if that became -.10% or something like that, it's not going to seriously change anything, I don't think.
And even if the bond collapse they describe actually happens, gold would likely skyrocket to save the day, right?
This author could be right about their predictions. But they also could be totally wrong. We can't see into the future. That's exactly why we do the PP.