Permanent Portfolio Forum
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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8542
That too. Probably the most often besides schmendrick (sp?)MachineGhost wrote:Schmuck, no?buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once
EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.
I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Mostly it's foreign money looking for a place to hide. The global economy is dangerously weak with many of the major industrialized states showing signs of slipping back into recession. Compounding this is that many of them already have zero or negative interest bond rates. By contrast the US economy seems to be limping along for now, not in anything resembling prosperity but not in immediate danger of slipping back into recession. Our bonds with their pitiful 2-4% yields, depending on what your looking at, are quite attractive compared to the negative rates elsewhere. And there are a lot of US companies that are actually starting to pay dividends. With a strengthening dollar this could last for a while.buddtholomew wrote:Is it inflation, deflation or the FED?
Maybe its to punish those that went to cash..
The EDV holding only comprises 6% of total income as its a small IRA.iwealth wrote:EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.
I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.
I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
I use 24.8 and 0.MachineGhost wrote:Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.
I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Another key post worth resurrecting. However, I'm not fully understanding the highlighted portion.Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:02 pmMy last post has almost (but not quite because it would take a lot of work) convinced me to write a post on rationally looking at risk and weighing them in one's decision making. For example, I can't not prove but would guess that the odds of you getting robbed or dying in a car wreck on the way to the vault far exceed the odds of GLD going belly up. Assuming the above is true (and I have no idea if it is), a more rational strategy might be to diversify into several gold funds vice packing around physical gold concentrated in a single location.I do find it nervewracking to wait for gold to arrive, and to store it, and to transport it to and fro the safe deposit box.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if *a* gold ETF turned out to be a sham someday, and I am looking forward to having more in physical and less in ETFs. It just doesn't feel the same to me as owning Pepsi shares.
Another for example that would be item #1 in this potential post would be something like...the risk to your personal future wealth of you not choosing a portfolio that accurately reflects your real risk tolerance and making poor trading choices at inopportune times exceeds the entire combined probability of all other systemic risk factors discussed on this board. My point isn't folks shouldn't identify potential, pay attention to and discuss various risks, but that they should pay appropriate time and attention proportional to the likelihood of said risks. But more importantly they should act accordingly.
If Elizabeth Warren DOES get elected and her wealth tax proposal does get passed you MAY in YOUR lifetime see the minimum that gets taxed reach down to affect your wealth!
More wisdom from Kbg!Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:01 am Clearly I've hit a nerve here.
I will just lay my opinion out very simply. Gold has unique qualities as an asset class. These can be accessed by holding phys or an electronic medium of same. Either way the benefit/risk accrues to the holder of it. In today's monetary system under extreme SHTF (like nuclear war) scenarios I don't see phys being that useful. In such a scenario what matters is protection and producing the necessities of life which a shiny metal is incapable of doing. I am totally serious about this...if this is really a concern one has go buy some farm land and learn how to cultivate it. Saving such an extreme occurrence, the electronic form isn't going to be a problem. For the hundredth time, SPX, LTTs, STTs and Gold are not arcane derivatives that are difficult to price and illiquid.
Good heavens read a little German history people if you have this fear. In the bad parts of WWI, the Weimar years and WW2 what happened to an industrialized society in true SHTF scenarios was city people hauled their butts out into the country and traded their useful stuff or labor for food. Farmers don't need gold. They need equipment, fuel for their equipment, seed, fertilizer and maybe labor.
In short, have something actually worth bartering for.
I think I'm probably not the person to ask for an unbiased view...you dug up my articulation of what I really think. If I were to go down that road I'd think silver or bronze would be a bit more useful than gold as a medium of exchange. Historically, this has been the case. Kinda like should I have a wad of 20s or 100s buried in the back yard? 100s have a greater "value", but I don't think anyone would disagree that 1/5/10/20s are day to day more "useful."
