Oh Come On

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:40 pm

Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On"

Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by iwealth » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:05 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On"

Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
Pretty darn remarkable what continues to transpire. Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs...only thing I see that didn't rally was oil. This is the best worst economy one can possibly hope for.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by dualstow » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:08 pm

iwealth wrote: This is the best worst economy one can possibly hope for.
right! :D
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by barrett » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:17 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
I don't think I've seen the word "nubile" on this forum before and I am pretty sure I have never heard the term "nubile investor." But, yes, 1/1/16 was a great start date. Now I must spend the weekend pondering if I should go all to cash! What a nice run this has been.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by dragoncar » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:18 pm

To those who were thinking of abandoning the PP during the dark times, I have some advice: believe in yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:26 pm

barrett wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
I don't think I've seen the word "nubile" on this forum before and I am pretty sure I have never heard the term "nubile investor." But, yes, 1/1/16 was a great start date. Now I must spend the weekend pondering if I should go all to cash! What a nice run this has been.
oops...spell check changed nube ("noob") to nubile...naughty.
I had the same thoughts barrett, but that would be a major mistake.
If the PP has taught us anything, its holding all four assets at all times is the "best" way to allocate your investments.
One or more assets will turn down, but the PP will continue to do its thing.
I just didn't realize that the portfolio composition had the potential to drive such powerful gains.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:14 pm

Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:23 pm

MachineGhost wrote:Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
As long as we are balanced (4x25), the total value of our portfolio should be irrelevant.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by JohnnyFactor » Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:29 pm

MangoMan wrote:Oooh, what a great idea! A wealth tax.
Canada implemented a wealth tax this year when the Liberal government was voted in. If you make over $200,000, you will be in a newly created tax bracket.

http://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/canada.htm

(I've been lurking too long, and just had to respond to this thread so I registered. Hi everybody.)
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by JohnnyFactor » Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:38 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
I'm a PP noob and discovered Harry Browne over the Christmas holidays while looking for a sensible plan. I took my modest savings and went all in this January. In May, I decided to split the equity portion 50/50 domestic/international and diversified globally right at the bottom. My portfolio is up 7.3% and green across the board. Yeah, I'm a Harry Browne fan.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:16 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
As long as we are balanced (4x25), the total value of our portfolio should be irrelevant.
True, so don't be surprised if you give back 50% of the PP's gains this year.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:19 pm

Welcome Johnny, and boy what a welcome you got from the PP! Unlike the 2013-2015 period, it's been all sunshine and puppies this year. We're pretty happy too. By the way you deserve special congratulations for buying the bonds and gold at that time, when everyone thought they were headed for the doghouse.

Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by JohnnyFactor » Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:34 pm

Thanks! I got some historical perspective by reading both of the epic PP threads at Bogleheads. It took three weeks to get through them, but I saw the sentiment and results from the credit crisis of 2008, the gold top of 2011, and the gold crash of 2013. I've read all of the Harry Browne economic books and listened to his radio show. I feel prepared for whatever may come but it sure is nice to have a booming start.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by dualstow » Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:25 pm

I kind of like the image of a "noobile" investor.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by koekebakker » Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:17 am

Performance has been amazing this year, and pretty unexpected too!

EU-PP is up 10.4% YTD. Inflation 0%.

The long term euro-gov bonds are up 25%, yielding absolutely nothing...
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by barrett » Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:17 am

sophie wrote:Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
Hey Sophie,

Does "in drawdown" just mean that the portfolio is not at an all-time high at any point, or is it something more complex than that? With the PP at an all-time high, I'd like some perspective. Does my intuition tell me that it should go down from here because that's what's really most likely to happen?

Also, thanks for the Tour de France reference. The riders are just starting the ascent of The Tourmalet and I had forgotten to fire up my online Guardian feed!
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:43 am

Anything that makes you feel like the portfolio isn't going anywhere, and that maybe you should have invested in something else that's doing well at the time.

The PP seems to operate in spurts, I guess because that's how stock market scares happen. It drags the rest of the time. Most annoying >:(
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Kbg » Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:18 pm

I don't know if I'm the 70% poster Sophie mentioned but I did write a 70% time in DD post a couple of days back. DD is anytime you are not reaching a new high. A good example was last year...almost the entire year was in DD. If you take the Nasdaq 100 it was in DD for what 15-16 years in a row?
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Reub » Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:41 pm

So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by iwealth » Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:35 pm

Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".

VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%

Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%

The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%

Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%

Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Reub » Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:10 pm

iwealth wrote:
Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".

VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%

Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%

The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%

Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%

Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
Wow, that is nice! Thanks!
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by edsanville » Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:57 pm

I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.

My VP contains bitcoins, and those have been doing very well this year, as well.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by barrett » Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:40 pm

edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:49 pm

My PP is maturing and attractive. There I said it!
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Reub » Sat Jul 09, 2016 4:40 pm

barrett wrote:
edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.
Barrett, in honor of edsanville's return I am posting a link to his rebalancing chart. It sure does seem that no matter where one rebalances the returns hold up:
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... 097#p19097
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