Oh Come On
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- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On"
Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
Re: Oh Come On
Pretty darn remarkable what continues to transpire. Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs...only thing I see that didn't rally was oil. This is the best worst economy one can possibly hope for.buddtholomew wrote:Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On"
Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
- dualstow
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Re: Oh Come On
right!iwealth wrote: This is the best worst economy one can possibly hope for.
Re: Oh Come On
I don't think I've seen the word "nubile" on this forum before and I am pretty sure I have never heard the term "nubile investor." But, yes, 1/1/16 was a great start date. Now I must spend the weekend pondering if I should go all to cash! What a nice run this has been.buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
Re: Oh Come On
To those who were thinking of abandoning the PP during the dark times, I have some advice: believe in yourself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
oops...spell check changed nube ("noob") to nubile...naughty.barrett wrote:I don't think I've seen the word "nubile" on this forum before and I am pretty sure I have never heard the term "nubile investor." But, yes, 1/1/16 was a great start date. Now I must spend the weekend pondering if I should go all to cash! What a nice run this has been.buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
I had the same thoughts barrett, but that would be a major mistake.
If the PP has taught us anything, its holding all four assets at all times is the "best" way to allocate your investments.
One or more assets will turn down, but the PP will continue to do its thing.
I just didn't realize that the portfolio composition had the potential to drive such powerful gains.
- MachineGhost
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Re: Oh Come On
Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
As long as we are balanced (4x25), the total value of our portfolio should be irrelevant.MachineGhost wrote:Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
- JohnnyFactor
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Re: Oh Come On
Canada implemented a wealth tax this year when the Liberal government was voted in. If you make over $200,000, you will be in a newly created tax bracket.MangoMan wrote:Oooh, what a great idea! A wealth tax.
http://www.taxtips.ca/taxrates/canada.htm
(I've been lurking too long, and just had to respond to this thread so I registered. Hi everybody.)
- JohnnyFactor
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Re: Oh Come On
I'm a PP noob and discovered Harry Browne over the Christmas holidays while looking for a sensible plan. I took my modest savings and went all in this January. In May, I decided to split the equity portion 50/50 domestic/international and diversified globally right at the bottom. My portfolio is up 7.3% and green across the board. Yeah, I'm a Harry Browne fan.buddtholomew wrote:Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election.
- MachineGhost
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Re: Oh Come On
True, so don't be surprised if you give back 50% of the PP's gains this year.buddtholomew wrote:As long as we are balanced (4x25), the total value of our portfolio should be irrelevant.MachineGhost wrote:Remember, kiddies, its not how much you make... its how much you keep!!!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Oh Come On
Welcome Johnny, and boy what a welcome you got from the PP! Unlike the 2013-2015 period, it's been all sunshine and puppies this year. We're pretty happy too. By the way you deserve special congratulations for buying the bonds and gold at that time, when everyone thought they were headed for the doghouse.
Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
- JohnnyFactor
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Re: Oh Come On
Thanks! I got some historical perspective by reading both of the epic PP threads at Bogleheads. It took three weeks to get through them, but I saw the sentiment and results from the credit crisis of 2008, the gold top of 2011, and the gold crash of 2013. I've read all of the Harry Browne economic books and listened to his radio show. I feel prepared for whatever may come but it sure is nice to have a booming start.
- dualstow
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Re: Oh Come On
I kind of like the image of a "noobile" investor.
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Re: Oh Come On
Performance has been amazing this year, and pretty unexpected too!
EU-PP is up 10.4% YTD. Inflation 0%.
The long term euro-gov bonds are up 25%, yielding absolutely nothing...
EU-PP is up 10.4% YTD. Inflation 0%.
The long term euro-gov bonds are up 25%, yielding absolutely nothing...
Re: Oh Come On
Hey Sophie,sophie wrote:Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
Does "in drawdown" just mean that the portfolio is not at an all-time high at any point, or is it something more complex than that? With the PP at an all-time high, I'd like some perspective. Does my intuition tell me that it should go down from here because that's what's really most likely to happen?
Also, thanks for the Tour de France reference. The riders are just starting the ascent of The Tourmalet and I had forgotten to fire up my online Guardian feed!
Re: Oh Come On
Anything that makes you feel like the portfolio isn't going anywhere, and that maybe you should have invested in something else that's doing well at the time.
The PP seems to operate in spurts, I guess because that's how stock market scares happen. It drags the rest of the time. Most annoying
The PP seems to operate in spurts, I guess because that's how stock market scares happen. It drags the rest of the time. Most annoying
Re: Oh Come On
I don't know if I'm the 70% poster Sophie mentioned but I did write a 70% time in DD post a couple of days back. DD is anytime you are not reaching a new high. A good example was last year...almost the entire year was in DD. If you take the Nasdaq 100 it was in DD for what 15-16 years in a row?
Re: Oh Come On
So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
Re: Oh Come On
All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%
Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%
The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%
Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%
Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
Re: Oh Come On
Wow, that is nice! Thanks!iwealth wrote:All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%
Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%
The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%
Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%
Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
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Re: Oh Come On
I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
My VP contains bitcoins, and those have been doing very well this year, as well.
My VP contains bitcoins, and those have been doing very well this year, as well.
Re: Oh Come On
edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
My PP is maturing and attractive. There I said it!
Re: Oh Come On
Barrett, in honor of edsanville's return I am posting a link to his rebalancing chart. It sure does seem that no matter where one rebalances the returns hold up:barrett wrote:edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... 097#p19097